新供给经济下的地方政府性债务效率研究——基于DEA三阶段和空间外溢效应模型
|
摘要
通过DEA三阶段方法对中国31个行政区域进行地方政府性债务效率的测度,测评结果表明,2001~2013年,中国地方政府性债务使用效率整体稳中有升,趋势向好,环境变量对效率值存在显著影响;运用空间杜宾模型测度地方政府性债务效率的时空变迁,结果发现经济、社会、政策、市场化程度及债务管理因素均存在显著的空间外溢效应;同时基于空间框架下分析上述各因素对地方政府性债务效率的影响机制。最后,结合当前经济形势和文章实证结论,提出了包括组织债务置换、重置债务结构、创新债务激励管控预警机制协调债务空间利用与供给侧改革等优化地方政府性债务效率的改革路径。
Taking 31 provinces of China for samples,this paper makes an evaluation of the use efficiency of local government debts with the three-stage DEA model.The results reveal that the overall efficiency of local government debts in China is increasing with a positive trend as a whole,and there is a significant influence of environment variables during the period of 2001-2013.Then,the paper uses the special dubin model to measure the timing and special change of the efficiency of local government debts.The findings show that the indicators including economy,society,policy,and the debt management factors have a significant spatial spillover effect on the efficiency of local government debts.In this paper,we analyze the mechanism of the factors that affect the efficiency of local government debts.Finally,combining with the current economic situation and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward serious solutions to the optimization the local government debt efficiency including displacement the local debt,reseting the debt structure,innovating incentive control and warning mechanism,ruled by the reform of the supply side.
Taking 31 provinces of China for samples,this paper makes an evaluation of the use efficiency of local government debts with the three-stage DEA model.The results reveal that the overall efficiency of local government debts in China is increasing with a positive trend as a whole,and there is a significant influence of environment variables during the period of 2001-2013.Then,the paper uses the special dubin model to measure the timing and special change of the efficiency of local government debts.The findings show that the indicators including economy,society,policy,and the debt management factors have a significant spatial spillover effect on the efficiency of local government debts.In this paper,we analyze the mechanism of the factors that affect the efficiency of local government debts.Finally,combining with the current economic situation and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward serious solutions to the optimization the local government debt efficiency including displacement the local debt,reseting the debt structure,innovating incentive control and warning mechanism,ruled by the reform of the supply side.
引文
[1]袭强,王俊,贾珅.财政分权视角下的地方政府债务研究:一个综述[J].经济研究,2011,(7):144-156.
[2]贾康,苏京春.财政分配“三元俘论”制约及其缓解路径分析[J].财政研究,2012,(10):2-11.
[3]伏润民,缪小林.政府债务可持续性内涵与测度方法的文献综述——兼论我国地方政府债务可持续性[J].经济学动态,2012,(11):86-93.
[4]巴曙松,王劲松,李琦.从城镇化角度考察地方债务与融资模式[J].中国金融,2011,(19):20-22.
[5]贾康,刘微.“土地财政”论析——在深化财税改革中构建合理、规范、可持续的地方“土地生财”机制[J].经济学动态,2012,(1):11-13.
[6]何杨,满燕云.地方政府债务融资的风险控制——基于土地财政视角的分析[J].财贸经济,2012,(5):45-50.
[7]段振文,张雪莲.地方政府融资平台贷款的风险特征探析[J].中央财经大学学报,2013,(8):12-18.
[8]陈志勇.城镇化中的土地财政与地方债[J].经济经纬,2014,(2):9-11.
[9]匡小平,蔡芳宏.论地方债的预算约束机制[J].管理世界,2014,(1):173-176.
[10]朱军,聂群.跨期预算约束条件下中国财政可持续性研究[J].中南财经大学学报,2014,(5):31-35.
[11]王雅龄,王力结.地方债形成中的信号博弈:房地产价格——兼论新预算法的影响[J].经济学动态,2015,(4):59-63.
[12]巴曙松,牛博坤,余芽芳.探寻中国地方债务的薄弱结点:时间、流量、区域三个维度的观察[J].西南金融,2014,(5):46-49.
[13]林毅夫.地方政府债务:可能引爆中国金融危机的风险点[N].21世纪经济报道,2014-08-18(5).
[14]刘尚希.如何让地方债治理进入良性循环[N].中国财经报,2015-03-03(7).
[15]金荣学.地方政府债务支出的绩效评价体系研究[J].行政事业资产与财务,2013,(3):31-34.
[16]考燕鸣,王淑梅.地方政府债务绩效考核指标体系构建及评价模型研究[J].当代财经,2009,(7):34-38.
[17]高学武,张丹.地方政府支出效率的再考察——基于省级面板数据的分析[J].社会经济体制比较,2013,(6):181-190.
[18]Chame,Cooper,Rhodes.Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,(2):429-444.
[19]Banker,Chames,Cooper.Some models for estimating technical and scale in efficiencies in data development analysis[J].Management Science,1984,(30):1079-1092.
[2]贾康,苏京春.财政分配“三元俘论”制约及其缓解路径分析[J].财政研究,2012,(10):2-11.
[3]伏润民,缪小林.政府债务可持续性内涵与测度方法的文献综述——兼论我国地方政府债务可持续性[J].经济学动态,2012,(11):86-93.
[4]巴曙松,王劲松,李琦.从城镇化角度考察地方债务与融资模式[J].中国金融,2011,(19):20-22.
[5]贾康,刘微.“土地财政”论析——在深化财税改革中构建合理、规范、可持续的地方“土地生财”机制[J].经济学动态,2012,(1):11-13.
[6]何杨,满燕云.地方政府债务融资的风险控制——基于土地财政视角的分析[J].财贸经济,2012,(5):45-50.
[7]段振文,张雪莲.地方政府融资平台贷款的风险特征探析[J].中央财经大学学报,2013,(8):12-18.
[8]陈志勇.城镇化中的土地财政与地方债[J].经济经纬,2014,(2):9-11.
[9]匡小平,蔡芳宏.论地方债的预算约束机制[J].管理世界,2014,(1):173-176.
[10]朱军,聂群.跨期预算约束条件下中国财政可持续性研究[J].中南财经大学学报,2014,(5):31-35.
[11]王雅龄,王力结.地方债形成中的信号博弈:房地产价格——兼论新预算法的影响[J].经济学动态,2015,(4):59-63.
[12]巴曙松,牛博坤,余芽芳.探寻中国地方债务的薄弱结点:时间、流量、区域三个维度的观察[J].西南金融,2014,(5):46-49.
[13]林毅夫.地方政府债务:可能引爆中国金融危机的风险点[N].21世纪经济报道,2014-08-18(5).
[14]刘尚希.如何让地方债治理进入良性循环[N].中国财经报,2015-03-03(7).
[15]金荣学.地方政府债务支出的绩效评价体系研究[J].行政事业资产与财务,2013,(3):31-34.
[16]考燕鸣,王淑梅.地方政府债务绩效考核指标体系构建及评价模型研究[J].当代财经,2009,(7):34-38.
[17]高学武,张丹.地方政府支出效率的再考察——基于省级面板数据的分析[J].社会经济体制比较,2013,(6):181-190.
[18]Chame,Cooper,Rhodes.Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,(2):429-444.
[19]Banker,Chames,Cooper.Some models for estimating technical and scale in efficiencies in data development analysis[J].Management Science,1984,(30):1079-1092.