Potential impacts of enhanced tropical cyclone activity on the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation and East Asian monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian warm period
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摘要
热带气旋不仅是一种严重的灾害性天气事件,其在气候时间尺度也可通过加强海洋上层垂直混合进而调节全球海洋经向热量输送。基于一个海气耦合模式,本文探讨了强热带气旋活动对皮亚琴察暖期(又称晚上新世暖期;约300万年前)ENSO和东亚季风环流的可能影响。模拟结果表明,热带气旋引起的海洋垂直混合加强可造成热带东太平洋显著增温、温跃层加深,但ENSO年际变率减弱。对东亚季风而言,夏季副热带高压南移且西伸,副热带急流减弱并南移,我国南方西南风加强;冬季东亚大槽加深,副热带急流南移,我国北方偏北风加强。上述模拟结果可增进我们对热带气旋气候反馈作用以及晚上新世暖期全球气候特征的认识。
Tropical cyclones(TCs) not only passively respond to climate change, but also play an important role in vertical mixing of the upper ocean and in driving oceanic heat transport. Using a fully coupled climate model, the authors investigate the potential e?ect of TC-induced vertical mixing on the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and East Asian monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian,during which global TCs are estimated to have been stronger. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the TC-induced oceanic mixing over global storm basins leads to additional warming over the eastern tropical Paci?c and a deeper thermocline in the mid-Piacenzian, whereas it dampens the interannual variability of ENSO. Regarding the East Asian monsoon circulations, low-level(850 hPa) summer and winter winds are intensi?ed in response to enhanced vertical mixing, with a southward/westward shift of the western North Paci?c high and westerly jet in summer and a deepened East Asian trough in winter. These climatic features are largely reproduced in the experiment with enhanced vertical mixing only over the central-eastern North Paci?c. These results may shed light on TC feedbacks associated with vertical mixing and advance our understanding on mid-Piacenzian climate.
Tropical cyclones(TCs) not only passively respond to climate change, but also play an important role in vertical mixing of the upper ocean and in driving oceanic heat transport. Using a fully coupled climate model, the authors investigate the potential e?ect of TC-induced vertical mixing on the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and East Asian monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian,during which global TCs are estimated to have been stronger. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the TC-induced oceanic mixing over global storm basins leads to additional warming over the eastern tropical Paci?c and a deeper thermocline in the mid-Piacenzian, whereas it dampens the interannual variability of ENSO. Regarding the East Asian monsoon circulations, low-level(850 hPa) summer and winter winds are intensi?ed in response to enhanced vertical mixing, with a southward/westward shift of the western North Paci?c high and westerly jet in summer and a deepened East Asian trough in winter. These climatic features are largely reproduced in the experiment with enhanced vertical mixing only over the central-eastern North Paci?c. These results may shed light on TC feedbacks associated with vertical mixing and advance our understanding on mid-Piacenzian climate.
引文
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Naish,T.,R.Powell,R.Levy,G.Wilson,R.Scherer,F.Talarico L.Krissek,et al.2009.“Obliquity-Paced Pliocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet Oscillations.”Nature 458:322-328doi:10.1038/nature07867.
Nie,J.,J.W.King,and X.Fang.2007.“Enhancement Mechanisms of Magnetic Susceptibility in the Chinese Red-Clay Sequence.”Geophysical Research Letters 34L19705.doi:10.1029/2007GL031430.
Nie,J.,T.Stevens,Y.Song,J.W.King,R.Zhang,S.Ji,L.S.Gong and D.Cares.2014.“Pacific Freshening Drives Pliocene Cooling and Asian Monsoon Intensification.”Scientific Reports 4:5474.doi:10.1038/srep05474.
O’Brien,C.L.,G.L.Foster,M.A.Martínez-Botí,R.Abell J.W.Rae,and R.D.Pancost.2014.“High Sea Surface Temperatures in Tropical Warm Pools during the Pliocene.”Nature Geoscience 7:606-611.doi:10.1038/ngeo2194.
Pagani,M.,Z.Liu,J.LaRiviere,and A.C.Ravelo.2010.“High Earth-System Climate Sensitivity Determined from Pliocene Carbon Dioxide Concentrations.”Nature Geoscience 327-30.doi:10.1038/ngeo724.
Ravelo,A.C.,K.T.Lawrence,A.Fedorov,and H.L.Ford.2014“Comment on‘A 12-Million-Year Temperature History of the Tropical Pacific Ocean’.”Science 346:1467doi:10.1126/science.1257618.
Raymo,M.E.,J.X.Mitrovica,M.J.O’Leary,R.M.DeConto,and P.J.Hearty.2011.“Departures from Eustasy in Pliocene Sea-Level Records.”Nature Geoscience 4:328-333doi:10.1038/ngeo1118.
Rohling,E.,G.Foster,K.Grant,G.Marino,A.Roberts M.Tamisiea,and F.Williams.2014.“Sea-Level and Deep-Sea-Temperature Variability over the past 5.3 Million Years.”Nature 508:477-482.doi:10.1038/nature13230.
Rovere,A.,M.E.Raymo,J.Mitrovica,P.Hearty,M.O’Leary,and J.Inglis.2014.“The Mid-Pliocene Sea-Level Conundrum Glacial Isostasy,Eustasy and Dynamic Topography.”Earth Planetary Science Letter 387:27-33.doi:10.7916/D8707ZGQ
Salzmann,U.,A.M.Haywood,D.Lunt,P.Valdes,and D.Hill2008.“A New Global Biome Reconstruction and DataModel Comparison for the Middle Pliocene.”Globa Ecology and Biogeography 17:432-447.doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2008.00381.x.
Scroxton,N.,S.Bonham,R.E.M.Rickaby,S.H.F.Lawrence M.Hermoso,and A.M.Haywood.2011.“Persistent ENino-Southern Oscillation Variation during the Pliocene Epoch.”Paleoceanography 26:PA2215.doi:10.1029/2010PA002097.
Seki,O.,G.L.Foster,D.N.Schmidt,A.Mackensen K.Kawamura,and R.D.Pancost.2010.“Alkenone and Boron-Based Pliocene pCO2 Records.”Earth and Planetary Science Letters 292(1):201-211.doi:10.1016/j epsl.2010.01.037.
Sriver,R.L.,M.Goes,M.E.Mann,and K.Keller.2010.“Climate Response to Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Mixing in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity.”Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans 115:C10042.doi:10.1029/2010JC006106.
Sriver,R.L.,and M.Huber.2007.“Observational Evidence for an Ocean Heat Pump Induced by Tropical Cyclones.”Nature447:577-580.doi:10.1038/nature05785.
Wara,M.W.,A.C.Ravelo,and M.L.Delaney.2005.“Permanent El Ni?o-Like Conditions during the Pliocene Warm Period.”Science 309:758-761.doi:10.1038/nature09777.
Watanabe,T.,A.Suzuki,S.Minobe,T.Kawashima,K.Kameo K.Minoshima,Y.M.Aguilar,et al.2011.“Permanent El Nino during the Pliocene Warm Period Not Supported by Cora Evidence.”Nature 471:209-211.doi:10.1038/nature09777.
Yan,Q.,T.Wei,R.L.Korty,J.P.Kossin,Z.Zhang,and H.Wang2016.“Enhanced Intensity of Global Tropical Cyclones during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113:12963-12967.doi:10.1073/pnas.1608950113
Yan,Q.,Z.S.Zhang,H.J.Wang,Y.Q.Gao,and W.P.Zheng2012.“Set-Up and Preliminary Results of mid-Pliocene Climate Simulations with CAM3.1.”Geoscientific Mode Development 5:289-297.doi:10.5194/gmd-5-289-2012.
Zhang,R.,D.B.Jiang,and T.P.Tian.2013.“Permanent El Ni?o-Like Conditions during the Middle Pliocene?A Coupled Mode Results.”(In Chinese).”Quaternary Sciences 33:1130-1137doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2013.06.09.
Zhang,Y.G.,M.Pagani,and Z.Liu.2014.“A 12-Million-Year Temperature History of the Tropical Pacific Ocean.”Science344:84-87.doi:10.1126/science.1246172.
Zheng,H.,C.M.Powell,D.K.Rea,J.Wang,and P.Wang.2004“Late Miocene and mid-Pliocene Enhancement of the East Asian Monsoon as Viewed from the Land and Sea.”Globa Planetary Change 41:147-155.doi:10.1016/j gloplacha.2004.01.003.
Cook,C.P.,T.van de Flierdt,T.Williams,S.R.Hemming M.Iwai,M.Kobayashi,F.J.Jimenez-Espejo,C.Escutia J.J.González,and B.-K.Khim.2013.“Dynamic Behaviour of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during Pliocene Warmth.”Nature Geoscience 6:765-769.doi:10.1038/ngeo1889.
Dolan,A.M.,S.J.Hunter,D.J.Hill,A.M.Haywood,S.J.Koenig B.L.Otto-Bliesner,A.Abe-Ouchi,et al.2015.“Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.”Climate of the Past 11:403-424.doi:10.5194/cp-11-403-2015.
Dowsett,H.,M.Robinson,A.Haywood,U.Salzmann,D.Hill L.Sohl,M.Chandler,M.Williams,K.Foley,and D.Stoll.2010“The PRISM3D Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction.”Stratigraphy 7:123-139.
Dowsett,H.J.,K.M.Foley,D.K.Stoll,M.A.Chandler,L.E.Sohl M.Bentsen,B.L.Otto-Bliesner,et al.2013.“Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean:A Data-Mode Comparison.”Scientific Reports 3.doi:10.1038/srep02013.
Emanuel,K.2001.“Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Meridiona Heat Transport by the Oceans.”Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 106:14771-14781.doi:10.1029/2000JD900641.
Fedorov,A.,C.Brierley,and K.Emanuel.2010.“Tropica Cyclones and Permanent El Ni?o in the Early Pliocene Epoch.”Nature 463:1066-1070.doi:10.1038/nature08831.
Fedorov,A.V.,N.J.Burls,K.T.Lawrence,and L.C.Peterson2015.“Tightly Linked Zonal and Meridional Sea Surface Temperature Gradients over the past Five Million Years.”Nature Geoscience 8:975-980.doi:10.1038/ngeo2577.
Gu,D.,and S.Philander.1997.“Interdecadal Climate Fluctuations that Depend on Exchanges between the Tropics and Extratropics.”Science 275:805-807.doi:10.1126/science.275.5301.805.
Haywood,A.M.,D.J.Hill,A.M.Dolan,B.L.Otto-Bliesner F.Bragg,W.-L.Chan,M.A.Chandler,et al.2013.“LargeScale Features of Pliocene Climate:Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project.”Climate of the Past 9:191-209.doi:10.5194/cp-9-191-2013.
Haywood,A.M.,H.J.Dowsett,and A.M.Dolan.2016“Integrating Geological Archives and Climate Models for the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.”Nature Communications 710646.doi:10.1038/ncomms10646.
Haywood,A.M.,H.J.Dowsett,M.M.Robinson,D.K.Stoll A.M.Dolan,D.J.Lunt,B.Otto-Bliesner,and M.A.Chandler2011.“Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project(Pliomip)Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions(Experiment 2).”Geoscientific Model Development 4571-577.doi:10.5194/gmd-4-571-2011.
Hurrell,J.W.,M.M.Holland,P.R.Gent,S.Ghan,J.E.Kay P.J.Kushner,J.Lamarque,et al.2013.“The Community Earth System Model:A Framework for Collaborative Research.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society94:1339-1360.doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1.
Jansen,M.,and R.Ferrari.2009.“Impact of the Latitudina Distribution of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport.”Geophysical Research Letters 36:L06604.doi:10.1029/2008GL036796.
Ji,S.,J.Nie,D.O.Breecker,Z.Luo,and Y.Song.2017“Intensified Aridity in Northern China during the Middle Piacenzian Warm Period.”Journal of Asian Earth Sciences147:222-225.doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2017.07.016.
Jiang,D.,X.Lang,Z.Tian,and L.Ju.2013.“Mid-Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon Strengthening:Insights from Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project(PMIP)Simulations.”Palaeogeography,Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 369:422-429.doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.11.007.
Korty,R.L.,K.A.Emanuel,and J.R.Scott.2008.“Tropica Cyclone-Induced Upper Ocean Mixing and Climate Application to Equable Climates.”Journal of Climate 21638-654.doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1659.1.
Manucharyan,G.E.,C.M.Brierley,and A.V.Fedorov.2011“Climate Impacts of Intermittent Upper Ocean Mixing Induced by Tropical Cyclones.”Journal of Geophysica Research:Oceans 116:C11038.doi:10.1029/2011JC007295.
Naish,T.,R.Powell,R.Levy,G.Wilson,R.Scherer,F.Talarico L.Krissek,et al.2009.“Obliquity-Paced Pliocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet Oscillations.”Nature 458:322-328doi:10.1038/nature07867.
Nie,J.,J.W.King,and X.Fang.2007.“Enhancement Mechanisms of Magnetic Susceptibility in the Chinese Red-Clay Sequence.”Geophysical Research Letters 34L19705.doi:10.1029/2007GL031430.
Nie,J.,T.Stevens,Y.Song,J.W.King,R.Zhang,S.Ji,L.S.Gong and D.Cares.2014.“Pacific Freshening Drives Pliocene Cooling and Asian Monsoon Intensification.”Scientific Reports 4:5474.doi:10.1038/srep05474.
O’Brien,C.L.,G.L.Foster,M.A.Martínez-Botí,R.Abell J.W.Rae,and R.D.Pancost.2014.“High Sea Surface Temperatures in Tropical Warm Pools during the Pliocene.”Nature Geoscience 7:606-611.doi:10.1038/ngeo2194.
Pagani,M.,Z.Liu,J.LaRiviere,and A.C.Ravelo.2010.“High Earth-System Climate Sensitivity Determined from Pliocene Carbon Dioxide Concentrations.”Nature Geoscience 327-30.doi:10.1038/ngeo724.
Ravelo,A.C.,K.T.Lawrence,A.Fedorov,and H.L.Ford.2014“Comment on‘A 12-Million-Year Temperature History of the Tropical Pacific Ocean’.”Science 346:1467doi:10.1126/science.1257618.
Raymo,M.E.,J.X.Mitrovica,M.J.O’Leary,R.M.DeConto,and P.J.Hearty.2011.“Departures from Eustasy in Pliocene Sea-Level Records.”Nature Geoscience 4:328-333doi:10.1038/ngeo1118.
Rohling,E.,G.Foster,K.Grant,G.Marino,A.Roberts M.Tamisiea,and F.Williams.2014.“Sea-Level and Deep-Sea-Temperature Variability over the past 5.3 Million Years.”Nature 508:477-482.doi:10.1038/nature13230.
Rovere,A.,M.E.Raymo,J.Mitrovica,P.Hearty,M.O’Leary,and J.Inglis.2014.“The Mid-Pliocene Sea-Level Conundrum Glacial Isostasy,Eustasy and Dynamic Topography.”Earth Planetary Science Letter 387:27-33.doi:10.7916/D8707ZGQ
Salzmann,U.,A.M.Haywood,D.Lunt,P.Valdes,and D.Hill2008.“A New Global Biome Reconstruction and DataModel Comparison for the Middle Pliocene.”Globa Ecology and Biogeography 17:432-447.doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2008.00381.x.
Scroxton,N.,S.Bonham,R.E.M.Rickaby,S.H.F.Lawrence M.Hermoso,and A.M.Haywood.2011.“Persistent ENino-Southern Oscillation Variation during the Pliocene Epoch.”Paleoceanography 26:PA2215.doi:10.1029/2010PA002097.
Seki,O.,G.L.Foster,D.N.Schmidt,A.Mackensen K.Kawamura,and R.D.Pancost.2010.“Alkenone and Boron-Based Pliocene pCO2 Records.”Earth and Planetary Science Letters 292(1):201-211.doi:10.1016/j epsl.2010.01.037.
Sriver,R.L.,M.Goes,M.E.Mann,and K.Keller.2010.“Climate Response to Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Mixing in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity.”Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans 115:C10042.doi:10.1029/2010JC006106.
Sriver,R.L.,and M.Huber.2007.“Observational Evidence for an Ocean Heat Pump Induced by Tropical Cyclones.”Nature447:577-580.doi:10.1038/nature05785.
Wara,M.W.,A.C.Ravelo,and M.L.Delaney.2005.“Permanent El Ni?o-Like Conditions during the Pliocene Warm Period.”Science 309:758-761.doi:10.1038/nature09777.
Watanabe,T.,A.Suzuki,S.Minobe,T.Kawashima,K.Kameo K.Minoshima,Y.M.Aguilar,et al.2011.“Permanent El Nino during the Pliocene Warm Period Not Supported by Cora Evidence.”Nature 471:209-211.doi:10.1038/nature09777.
Yan,Q.,T.Wei,R.L.Korty,J.P.Kossin,Z.Zhang,and H.Wang2016.“Enhanced Intensity of Global Tropical Cyclones during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113:12963-12967.doi:10.1073/pnas.1608950113
Yan,Q.,Z.S.Zhang,H.J.Wang,Y.Q.Gao,and W.P.Zheng2012.“Set-Up and Preliminary Results of mid-Pliocene Climate Simulations with CAM3.1.”Geoscientific Mode Development 5:289-297.doi:10.5194/gmd-5-289-2012.
Zhang,R.,D.B.Jiang,and T.P.Tian.2013.“Permanent El Ni?o-Like Conditions during the Middle Pliocene?A Coupled Mode Results.”(In Chinese).”Quaternary Sciences 33:1130-1137doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2013.06.09.
Zhang,Y.G.,M.Pagani,and Z.Liu.2014.“A 12-Million-Year Temperature History of the Tropical Pacific Ocean.”Science344:84-87.doi:10.1126/science.1246172.
Zheng,H.,C.M.Powell,D.K.Rea,J.Wang,and P.Wang.2004“Late Miocene and mid-Pliocene Enhancement of the East Asian Monsoon as Viewed from the Land and Sea.”Globa Planetary Change 41:147-155.doi:10.1016/j gloplacha.2004.01.003.