郑州市5—9月降水的日变化特征
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摘要
利用1955—2005年5—9月郑州气象站逐时降水资料,应用逐时降水量、逐时降水频次、逐时降水强度和不同持续时间降水4个指标和多项式拟合等数理统计方法,对郑州市降水的日变化特征进行了研究.结果表明:1郑州市夜雨特征明显,1:01—2:00为降水最为频发的时段,占统计日数近31%,各时次降水频次最大值出现在7月份,降水频次5月和6月显著相关,7月和8,9月份相关极为显著;25—9月各个时段平均降水强度具有明显的阶段性变化特征,可以用二次多项式拟合,且能通过信度为0.002的显著性水平检验;35,6月份平均降水强度均具有较显著的下降趋势,气候倾向率各自为-0.18 mm/10 h和-0.17 mm/10 h;7月份则具有较显著的上升趋势,速度为0.23 mm/10 h;8,9月份平均降水强度则以波动性为主,没有显著的趋势;4逐小时平均降水强度与降水发生频率之间有显著的线性相关关系,平均降水强度每提高1 mm/h,降水频次增加11.57次.
Using hourly self-recording precipitation data from May to September in 1955 to 2005 in Zhengzhou City of Henan Province,and the method of mathematical statistics such as polynomial fitting,the diurnal variation characteristics of precipitation in Zhengzhou were researched based on four indexes of hourly precipitation,hourly precipitation frequencies,hourly rainfall intensity,and different duration of rainfall. The results show: 1the night-rainfall characteristics are significance in Zhengzhou,and the most frequent precipitation period is at 1: 01 to 2: 00 at night,which percent is 31% of all statistics days,the maximum of precipitation frequencies every hour appears in July,the precipitation frequencies in May is significantly correlative to that in June,the precipitation frequencies in July is extremely correlative to that in August and September; 2the rainfall intensity every period has obviously periodic variation characteristics in May to September,and is fitted with quadratic polynomial,and pass the significance level test with the confidence level0. 002; 3the average rainfall intensities in May and June show a downward trend,and the climate inclination rate is respectively- 0. 18 mm /( 10 h) and- 0. 17 mm /( 10 h),the average rainfall intensities in July show a significance uptrend,and its rising speed is 0. 23 mm /( 10 h),the precipitation has no significant trend and is undulant in August and September; 4the hourly average rainfall intensity is significantly and linearly correlative,and the precipitation frequency would increase 11. 57 times when the rainfall intensity increases 1 mm / h.
Using hourly self-recording precipitation data from May to September in 1955 to 2005 in Zhengzhou City of Henan Province,and the method of mathematical statistics such as polynomial fitting,the diurnal variation characteristics of precipitation in Zhengzhou were researched based on four indexes of hourly precipitation,hourly precipitation frequencies,hourly rainfall intensity,and different duration of rainfall. The results show: 1the night-rainfall characteristics are significance in Zhengzhou,and the most frequent precipitation period is at 1: 01 to 2: 00 at night,which percent is 31% of all statistics days,the maximum of precipitation frequencies every hour appears in July,the precipitation frequencies in May is significantly correlative to that in June,the precipitation frequencies in July is extremely correlative to that in August and September; 2the rainfall intensity every period has obviously periodic variation characteristics in May to September,and is fitted with quadratic polynomial,and pass the significance level test with the confidence level0. 002; 3the average rainfall intensities in May and June show a downward trend,and the climate inclination rate is respectively- 0. 18 mm /( 10 h) and- 0. 17 mm /( 10 h),the average rainfall intensities in July show a significance uptrend,and its rising speed is 0. 23 mm /( 10 h),the precipitation has no significant trend and is undulant in August and September; 4the hourly average rainfall intensity is significantly and linearly correlative,and the precipitation frequency would increase 11. 57 times when the rainfall intensity increases 1 mm / h.
引文
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[2]Wang Y Q,Zhou L,Hamilton K.Effect of convective entrainment/detrainment on simulation of tropical precipitation diurnal cycle[J].Monthly Weather Review,2007,135(2):567-585.
[3]Robert Twardosz.Seasonal characteristics of diurnal precipitation variation in Krakow(South Poland)[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,27:957-968.
[4]Wallace J M.Diurnal variations in precipitation and thunderstorm frequency over the conterminous United States[J].Mon Weather Rev,1975,103:406-419.
[5]Higgins R W,Janowiak J E,Yao Y P.A gridded hourly precipitation data base for the United States(1963—1993),NCEP Clim Predict Center ATLAS 1[M].Washington,D C:U S Dep of Commer,1996.
[6]Dai A,Giorgi F,Trenberth K E.Observed and model simulated diurnal cycles of precipitation over the contiguous United States[J].Journal of Geophysics Research,1999,104:6377-6402.
[7]Dai A.Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies.part II:Diurnal variations[J].Journal of Climate,2001,14(66):1112-1128.
[8]Sorooshian S,Gao X,Maddox R A,et al.Diurnal variability of tropical precipitation retrieved from combined GOES and TRMM satellite information[J].Journal of Climate,200215(9):983-1001.
[9]Nesbitt S W,Zipser E J.The diurnal cycle of rainfall and convective intensity according to three years of TRMM measurements[J].Journal of Climate,2003,16(10):1456-1475.
[10]王伯民,吕勇平,张强.降水自记彩色扫描数字化处理系统[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(6):737-744.
[11]姚莉,李小泉,张立梅.我国1小时雨强的时空分布特征[J].气象,2009,35(2):80-87.
[12]李明财,段丽瑶,杨艳娟,等.天津市夏季降水日变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(6):11-14.
[13]杨森,周晓珊,高杰.辽宁省夏季降水的日变化特征[J].气象,2011,37(8):943-949.
[14]唐红玉,顾建峰,俞胜宾,等.西南地区降水日变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):376-384.
[15]刘忠阳,王勇,丁圆圆,等.郑州近54年降水变化的多时间尺度分析[J].气象科技,2005,33(S1):123-126.
[16]刘少华,胡彩虹,王爱琴.郑州市近58 a降雨量变化分析[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(3):18-22.
[17]于福荣,王友贺.频谱分析法在郑州市降水量预报中的应用[J].人民长江,2012,43(10):50-52.
[18]刘圆圆.河南省空中大气水汽含量演变特征及其与夏季降水的关系[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.
[19]王纪军,竹磊磊,胡彩虹,等.陆浑水库控制区近50年夏季降水特征[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2014,35(3):1-5.
[20]么枕生,丁裕国.气候统计[M].北京:气象出版社,1990.