降雨时程分布对山洪灾害预警影响初步研究
|
摘要
由降雨时间分布的不均匀性带来的流域产流峰值的变化较大,在同一个流域,成灾流量及其它条件相同,但降雨过程不同,所需要的临界降雨量是不同的。因此,山洪灾害预警实践中,通常会因为实际的降雨过程与拟定山洪灾害预警指标所依据的雨型不一致而导致预警不准确。以云南省云县爱华镇田心村下轻木林和涌宝镇涌宝村岔河两个典型小流域为研究对象,构建雨量时程分布不均匀程度计算模型,以介于[-1,1]的无量纲不均匀系数表示降雨的时程分布特性,分析降雨时程分布不均匀系数与临界雨量的相关关系。结果表明:不均匀系数介于-0.8~0.8之间的14种雨量分布模式所引起的临界雨量变化在6.3%~29.6%之间,降雨时程分布越不均匀,临界雨量越小,其中主雨峰偏后的更为明显,说明流域降雨时程分布对山洪灾害预警影响显著。因此在山洪灾害预警实践中应根据实际的降雨过程对预警指标适当修正。
The nonuniform temporal distribution of rainfall has significant influence on runoff crest value,and even in the same basin and under the same conditions,the critical precipitation for flash floods early warning is different due to various rainfall process. Therefore,during the practice of flash floods early warning,it often leads to inaccurate warning because the previously designed rainfall pattern is inconsistent with the actual rainfall process. Taking two small typical basins as examples,Xiaqingmulin Watershed where Tianxin Village is located,Aihua County and Chahe Watershed where Yongbao Village is located,Yongbao County of Yunnan Province,we analyzed the correlation between nonuniform coefficient of rainfall temporal distribution and critical precipitation. In the calculation,the nonuniform degree of rainfall temporal distribution was manifested by dimensionless nonuniform coefficient between[-1,1]by a calculation model. The results showed that in the built 14 rainfall distribution patterns,the nonuniform coefficients range from-0.8 to 0.8,the critical rainfalls vary in a range of 6.3% to 29.6% in the same basin. The more nonuniform temporal distribution of rainfall is,the smaller critical precipitation is,and the rain peak lags behind more obviously,indicating that the rainfall temporal distribution has a significant impact on the early warning of flash floods. Therefore,in the flood warning practice,we should adjust early warning index based on the actual rainfall process.
The nonuniform temporal distribution of rainfall has significant influence on runoff crest value,and even in the same basin and under the same conditions,the critical precipitation for flash floods early warning is different due to various rainfall process. Therefore,during the practice of flash floods early warning,it often leads to inaccurate warning because the previously designed rainfall pattern is inconsistent with the actual rainfall process. Taking two small typical basins as examples,Xiaqingmulin Watershed where Tianxin Village is located,Aihua County and Chahe Watershed where Yongbao Village is located,Yongbao County of Yunnan Province,we analyzed the correlation between nonuniform coefficient of rainfall temporal distribution and critical precipitation. In the calculation,the nonuniform degree of rainfall temporal distribution was manifested by dimensionless nonuniform coefficient between[-1,1]by a calculation model. The results showed that in the built 14 rainfall distribution patterns,the nonuniform coefficients range from-0.8 to 0.8,the critical rainfalls vary in a range of 6.3% to 29.6% in the same basin. The more nonuniform temporal distribution of rainfall is,the smaller critical precipitation is,and the rain peak lags behind more obviously,indicating that the rainfall temporal distribution has a significant impact on the early warning of flash floods. Therefore,in the flood warning practice,we should adjust early warning index based on the actual rainfall process.
引文
[1]张红萍,刘舒,刘媛媛,等.山溪洪水临界雨量基本概念剖析及方法分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2014,12(6):185-189.
[2]程海云,熊明,杨文发.长江流域山洪致灾临界雨强拟定及预警技术研究[M].武汉:长江出版社,2016.
[3]Norbiato D,Borga M,Dinale R.Flash flood warning in ungauged basins by use of the flash flood guidance and model-based runoff thresholds[J].Meteorological Applications,2009,16(1):65-75.
[4]毛北平.垂向混合产流模型在无资料地区山洪灾害临界雨量计算中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2016(4):720-730.
[5]徐少军,江炎生,毛北平,等.基于降雨径流关系曲线插值法的山洪临界雨量计算[J].中国防汛抗旱,2015,25(6):30-35.
[6]Dugwon S,Lakhanka R T,Meija J,et al.Evaluation of operational national weather service gridded flash flood guidance over the Arkansas Red River basin[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2013,49(6):1296-1307.
[7]Japan National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management.Operating methods of Critical Rainfall for Warning and Evacuation from Sediment-Related Disasters[R].Tsukuba,Japan National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,2001.
[8]李瑛,黄建和.日本的山洪灾害防御体系[J].人民长江,2008,39(10):80-81.
[9]陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J].人民长江,2005,36(12):40-43.
[10]王俊,王建群,余达征.现代水文监测技术[M].北京:水利出版社,2016.
[11]叶勇,王振宇,范波芹.浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析[J].水文,2008,28(1):56-58.
[12]江锦红,邵利萍.基于降雨观测资料的山洪预警标准[J].水利学报,2010,41(4):458-463.
[13]陈文辉.山洪灾害防治非工程措施中预警指标的确定——以甘肃省陇南市宕昌县为例[J].广东水利水电,2011(3):65-67.
[14]王鑫,曹志先,谈广鸣.暴雨山洪水动力学模型及初步应用[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2009,42(4):413-416.
[15]李昌志,郭良.山洪临界雨量确定方法评述[J].中国防汛抗旱,2013,23(6):23-28.
[16]冉启华,梁宁,钱群,等.移动降雨时空分布对坡面产流的影响[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2013,53(5):636-641.
[17]刘德地,陈晓宏,楼章华.基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析[J].水利学报,2009,40(7):850-857.
[2]程海云,熊明,杨文发.长江流域山洪致灾临界雨强拟定及预警技术研究[M].武汉:长江出版社,2016.
[3]Norbiato D,Borga M,Dinale R.Flash flood warning in ungauged basins by use of the flash flood guidance and model-based runoff thresholds[J].Meteorological Applications,2009,16(1):65-75.
[4]毛北平.垂向混合产流模型在无资料地区山洪灾害临界雨量计算中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2016(4):720-730.
[5]徐少军,江炎生,毛北平,等.基于降雨径流关系曲线插值法的山洪临界雨量计算[J].中国防汛抗旱,2015,25(6):30-35.
[6]Dugwon S,Lakhanka R T,Meija J,et al.Evaluation of operational national weather service gridded flash flood guidance over the Arkansas Red River basin[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2013,49(6):1296-1307.
[7]Japan National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management.Operating methods of Critical Rainfall for Warning and Evacuation from Sediment-Related Disasters[R].Tsukuba,Japan National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,2001.
[8]李瑛,黄建和.日本的山洪灾害防御体系[J].人民长江,2008,39(10):80-81.
[9]陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J].人民长江,2005,36(12):40-43.
[10]王俊,王建群,余达征.现代水文监测技术[M].北京:水利出版社,2016.
[11]叶勇,王振宇,范波芹.浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析[J].水文,2008,28(1):56-58.
[12]江锦红,邵利萍.基于降雨观测资料的山洪预警标准[J].水利学报,2010,41(4):458-463.
[13]陈文辉.山洪灾害防治非工程措施中预警指标的确定——以甘肃省陇南市宕昌县为例[J].广东水利水电,2011(3):65-67.
[14]王鑫,曹志先,谈广鸣.暴雨山洪水动力学模型及初步应用[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2009,42(4):413-416.
[15]李昌志,郭良.山洪临界雨量确定方法评述[J].中国防汛抗旱,2013,23(6):23-28.
[16]冉启华,梁宁,钱群,等.移动降雨时空分布对坡面产流的影响[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2013,53(5):636-641.
[17]刘德地,陈晓宏,楼章华.基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析[J].水利学报,2009,40(7):850-857.