弱化缓冲算子修正的民航不安全事件离散灰色预测
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摘要
为了掌握民航不安全事件的发展状况,并据此制定民航企事业单位的安全绩效考核指标,在民航不安全事件灰色预测的基础上引入离散灰色预测和弱化缓冲算子理论,基于中国民航2004—2013年不安全事件数据建立了弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型。通过中国民航2014—2015年不安全事件数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型的预测精度明显高于灰色预测(GM(1,1))模型和离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型,其中2阶平均弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型预测精度最高,采用该模型对2016—2020年我国民航不安全事件数进行了预测,预测结果为14 095、14 910、15 773、16 685、17 650。
The goal of this paper is to introduce a renovated model for predicting the unsafe or reckless accidents in the civil aviation transportation and traffic industry via the discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))modified by weakening the buffer operator.As is well known,the prediction or forecasting of security incidents in the civil aviation practice can be done by establishing a safety performance evaluation index system for the enterprises and institutions in this way.To solve such a problem,it has been found that the traditional discrete grey prediction model(DGM(1,1))proves poor and less-efficient,which motivate us to improve and renovate the original discrete grey prediction model(DGM(1,1)).The proposed modified model in this paper,based on the analysis of the current working discrete grey prediction model,whose growing rate of the first part turns to be higher than that of the second one.The buffer operator can be introduced to modify the geometric average weakening buffer operator with the different orders by using a discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model.What is more,the paper has also developed a discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model that can be modified by the weakening buffer operator based on the data of the Chinese civil aviation unsafe incidents from 2004 to 2013 and testing the mode through the data gained from the statistic data during the period of 2014 to 2015.The results of its application of the model the given paper has developed indicate that the prediction accuracy of the discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model proves to be significantly higher than the traditional grey prediction(GM(1,1))and the traditional discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))models.And,finally,the discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model modified by the paper indicates that its average relative error turns out to be merely 0.95%,whose prediction accuracy can be regarded as the highest.Since the modified model by the two order average weakening buffer operator has been approved and adopted for forecasting the Chinese civil aviation safety incidents from 2016 to 2020,the forecasting results can be illustrated as 14 095,14 910,15 773,16 685,17 650,which means quite successful and efficient.
The goal of this paper is to introduce a renovated model for predicting the unsafe or reckless accidents in the civil aviation transportation and traffic industry via the discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))modified by weakening the buffer operator.As is well known,the prediction or forecasting of security incidents in the civil aviation practice can be done by establishing a safety performance evaluation index system for the enterprises and institutions in this way.To solve such a problem,it has been found that the traditional discrete grey prediction model(DGM(1,1))proves poor and less-efficient,which motivate us to improve and renovate the original discrete grey prediction model(DGM(1,1)).The proposed modified model in this paper,based on the analysis of the current working discrete grey prediction model,whose growing rate of the first part turns to be higher than that of the second one.The buffer operator can be introduced to modify the geometric average weakening buffer operator with the different orders by using a discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model.What is more,the paper has also developed a discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model that can be modified by the weakening buffer operator based on the data of the Chinese civil aviation unsafe incidents from 2004 to 2013 and testing the mode through the data gained from the statistic data during the period of 2014 to 2015.The results of its application of the model the given paper has developed indicate that the prediction accuracy of the discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model proves to be significantly higher than the traditional grey prediction(GM(1,1))and the traditional discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))models.And,finally,the discrete grey prediction(DGM(1,1))model modified by the paper indicates that its average relative error turns out to be merely 0.95%,whose prediction accuracy can be regarded as the highest.Since the modified model by the two order average weakening buffer operator has been approved and adopted for forecasting the Chinese civil aviation safety incidents from 2016 to 2020,the forecasting results can be illustrated as 14 095,14 910,15 773,16 685,17 650,which means quite successful and efficient.
引文
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[9]GUO Jiuxia(郭九霞),PAN Chuanjiang(潘传江),LIAO Yong(廖勇).A method for unsafe events prediction of air traffic management(ATM)based on GBO-Markov model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2016,16(4):48-51.
[10]LXuemei(吕学梅).Studies on the forecast of unsafe events for airlines(航空公司不安全事件的预测研究)[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2008.
[11]MU Guangjie(穆广杰).Forecasting total volume of waste water discharge of Henan based on DGM model[J].Journal of Henan Normal University:Natural Science Edition(河南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2011,39(4):32-34.
[12]LI Sen(李森),TANG Mengxiong(唐孟雄),CHEN Shuhui(陈树辉).Application of gray system theory modified with buffer operator to determine ultimate bearing capacity of single pile[J].Engineering Mechanics(工程力学),2008(S1):129-132.
[13]DANG Yaoguo(党耀国),LIU Sifeng(刘思峰),LIU Bin(刘斌),et al.Study on the buffer weakening operator[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science(中国管理科学),2004,12(2):108-111.
[14]LIU Sifeng(刘思峰).Forecasting methods and techniques(预测方法与技术)[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2005.
[15]YE Jing(叶璟),LI Bingjun(李炳军),LIU Fang(刘芳).Forecasting effect and applicability of weakening buffer operators on GM(1,1)[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice(系统工程理论与实践),2014,34(9):2364-2371.
[2]FULLWOOD R R,HALL R E,MARTINEZ-GURIDI G,et al.Relating aviation service difficulty reports to accident data for safety trend prediction[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,1998,60(1):83-87.
[3]MCCANN D W.NNICE-a neural network aircraft icing algorithm[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2005,20(10):1335-1342.
[4]WANG Yonggang(王永刚),LXuemei(吕学梅).Grey relation analysis and grey model for civil aviation accidents forecasting[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(6):127-130.
[5]LUO Fan(罗帆),XIONG Wei(熊伟).The grey forecasting for signs of civil aviation accidents[J].Value Engineering(价值工程),2008,27(1):1-3.
[6]WANG Yonggang(王永刚),LXuemei(吕学梅).Grey Markov Model for forecasting civil aviation incidents[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2008,8(1):163-165.
[7]CHEN Yonggang(陈勇刚),REN Haifeng(任海峰).Application of gray Markov model in aviation incident prediction[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology(西安科技大学学报),2007,27(2):328-331.
[8]LIU Gang(刘刚),ZHU Jinfu(朱金福).Civil aviation accident forecasting based on Gray Metabolism Markov Model[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2007,17(5):17-20.
[9]GUO Jiuxia(郭九霞),PAN Chuanjiang(潘传江),LIAO Yong(廖勇).A method for unsafe events prediction of air traffic management(ATM)based on GBO-Markov model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2016,16(4):48-51.
[10]LXuemei(吕学梅).Studies on the forecast of unsafe events for airlines(航空公司不安全事件的预测研究)[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2008.
[11]MU Guangjie(穆广杰).Forecasting total volume of waste water discharge of Henan based on DGM model[J].Journal of Henan Normal University:Natural Science Edition(河南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2011,39(4):32-34.
[12]LI Sen(李森),TANG Mengxiong(唐孟雄),CHEN Shuhui(陈树辉).Application of gray system theory modified with buffer operator to determine ultimate bearing capacity of single pile[J].Engineering Mechanics(工程力学),2008(S1):129-132.
[13]DANG Yaoguo(党耀国),LIU Sifeng(刘思峰),LIU Bin(刘斌),et al.Study on the buffer weakening operator[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science(中国管理科学),2004,12(2):108-111.
[14]LIU Sifeng(刘思峰).Forecasting methods and techniques(预测方法与技术)[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2005.
[15]YE Jing(叶璟),LI Bingjun(李炳军),LIU Fang(刘芳).Forecasting effect and applicability of weakening buffer operators on GM(1,1)[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice(系统工程理论与实践),2014,34(9):2364-2371.