云南宁洱井低水位异常分析及地震预测
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摘要
宁洱井的水位自2014年10月25日以来持续下降39.2cm,低于正常水位谷值8.335m,2015年的年变幅度为正常年变的57.8%,呈破年变现象。经现场调查,发现周围观测环境干扰小,水位变化量相对可靠;通过分析水位与降雨量的相关性,以及GNSS监测网的位移资料,认为持续低水位异常与降雨量关系不大,属于地震前兆异常,其原因可能与该区域构造的拉张活动有关。总结地震前兆异常的地震活动规律,认为该异常可能对近期滇西南-滇缅交界地区中强地震危险性有指示意义。
The water level in Ning'er well is lower than the normal level,which has dropped 39.2cm since October 25,2014. Its amplitude of annual variation is 57.8% in 2015,showing an abnormal annual variation. Field investigation reveals that there is little interference in the circumstances and the water level variation is relatively reliable. The correlation analysis of the water level and rainfall in Ning'er well and the displacement measurements from GNSS monitoring network in Yunnan show that the low water level in this period is discriminated to precursory anomalies,which is correlated with recent regional extensional tectonic activity,and with little rainfall. The seismogenic characteristic of the precursory anomalies can be an indicator for the moderately strong seismic risk in Southwest Yunnan and Junction area of Myanmar in the near feature.
The water level in Ning'er well is lower than the normal level,which has dropped 39.2cm since October 25,2014. Its amplitude of annual variation is 57.8% in 2015,showing an abnormal annual variation. Field investigation reveals that there is little interference in the circumstances and the water level variation is relatively reliable. The correlation analysis of the water level and rainfall in Ning'er well and the displacement measurements from GNSS monitoring network in Yunnan show that the low water level in this period is discriminated to precursory anomalies,which is correlated with recent regional extensional tectonic activity,and with little rainfall. The seismogenic characteristic of the precursory anomalies can be an indicator for the moderately strong seismic risk in Southwest Yunnan and Junction area of Myanmar in the near feature.
引文
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付虹、邬成栋、赵小艳等,2014,云南开远井水位异常分析,地震学报,36(2),292~298。
刘耀炜、陆明勇、付虹等,2010,地下流体动态信息提取与强震预测技术研究,北京:地震出版社。
孙小龙、刘耀炜、晏锐,2013,云南姚安井2009年10月后水位下降的成因分析,地震学报,35(3),410~420。
万迪坤、汪成民、李介成,1993,地下水动态异常与地震短临预报,北京:地震出版社。
万登堡、夏菲,1995,云南地下水位动态短临标志体系研究,地震研究,28(3),282~293。
谢英情、李岩峰、张建国等,2007,2007年宁洱6.4级地震发震构造分析,地震研究,30(4),350~358。
云南省地震局,2005,云南省地震监测志,北京:地震出版社。
张立、赵洪声、刘耀炜等,2009,云南会泽井水位与水温相关关系及其变异的地震预测意义地震研究,32(3),228~230。
张勇、许力生、陈运泰等,2008,2007年云南宁洱MS6.4地震震源过程,中国科学:地球科学,38(6),683~692。
张体移、吴富焕、毕青等,2012,通海高大水位异常与地震分析,云南大学学报:自然科学版,34(S2),86~92。
邹平、杨玲英、关雷等,2009,2007年宁洱6.4级地震云南水位同震后效探讨,地震地磁观测与研究,30(2),95~99。
Mjachkin V I,Brace W F,Sobdev G A et al,1975,Two models for earthquake forerunner,Pure and Appl Geophys,113(1/2),169 ~182.
Scholz S A,1973,Earthquake prediction:a physical basis,Science,181(4102),803~810.