影响东亚夏季风降水异常的前期海温信号
|
摘要
采用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料、Had ISST海温数据以及中国东亚季风区的实测降水资料,探讨前期冬季海温与东亚夏季风之间的关系。研究表明,影响东亚夏季风异常的海温变化存在2个关键区,分别位于南印度洋中部和北太平洋东部,关键区的海温与东亚季风区的降水在长江中游有显著正相关,与东亚夏季风指数有显著负相关。基于此,定义了印-太海温指数。强海温指数年的南亚高压、索马里越赤道气流、西太平洋副高偏强,有利于东亚夏季风北进,中国大部降水偏多;弱海温指数年则相反。
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Hadley Center sea surface temperature analysis data and precipitation records over East Asia monsoon region in China are used to examine the relationship between the sea surface temperature(SST) in the previous winter and the East Asia summer monsoon. The results show that the abnormal variations of SST in south India Ocean and eastern North Pacific are key areas infecting the East Asia summer monsoon. The SST in key areas is in highly positive correlation with precipitation over the middle reach of the Yangtze River, and significantly negative correlation with the summer monsoon index. Based on the research, an Indo-Pacific SST index was defined. In the years of strong SST index, the South Asia high, Somali cross-equatorial flow and the western Pacific subtropical high were all enhanced, which led to the advancement of the East Asia summer monsoon. Under the situation, the precipitation increased obviously in most of the East Asia monsoon region in China. The atmospheric circulation and the precipitation had opposite tendency in the years of weak SST index years.
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Hadley Center sea surface temperature analysis data and precipitation records over East Asia monsoon region in China are used to examine the relationship between the sea surface temperature(SST) in the previous winter and the East Asia summer monsoon. The results show that the abnormal variations of SST in south India Ocean and eastern North Pacific are key areas infecting the East Asia summer monsoon. The SST in key areas is in highly positive correlation with precipitation over the middle reach of the Yangtze River, and significantly negative correlation with the summer monsoon index. Based on the research, an Indo-Pacific SST index was defined. In the years of strong SST index, the South Asia high, Somali cross-equatorial flow and the western Pacific subtropical high were all enhanced, which led to the advancement of the East Asia summer monsoon. Under the situation, the precipitation increased obviously in most of the East Asia monsoon region in China. The atmospheric circulation and the precipitation had opposite tendency in the years of weak SST index years.
引文
[1]李崇银,王作台,林士哲,等.东亚夏季风活动与东亚高空西风急流位置北跳关系的研究[J].大气科学,2004,28(5):641-658.
[2]吴捷,许小峰,金飞飞,等.斜压基本气流对东亚夏季风区气旋扰动低频发展影响的数值模拟研究[J].地球物理学报,2016,59(4):1 222-1 234.
[3]叶晓燕,陈崇成,罗明.东亚夏季降水与全球海温异常的年代际变化关系[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(9):984-994.
[4]吕心艳,张秀芝,陈锦年.东亚夏季风南北进退的年代际变化对我国区域降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(6):860-868.
[5]秦育婧,王盘兴.夏季东亚季风区Hadley环流上升支结构异常及其对长江流域降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(4):467-474.
[6]余丹丹,张韧,赵越超,等.西太平洋副高的东西进退与东亚夏季风系统的相互影响与关联[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(3):304-312.
[7]汪卫平,杨修群.索马里急流和澳洲越赤道气流年际变异不同配置及其影响[J].气象科学,2014,34(6):591-600.
[8]陆日宇,林中达,张耀存.夏季东亚高空急流的变化及其对东亚季风的影响[J].大气科学,2013,372(2):331-340.
[9]LU R Y.Associations among the components of the East Asian summer monsoon system in the meridional direction[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,2004,82:155-165.
[10]左金清,李维京,任宏利,等.春季北大西洋涛动与东亚夏季风年际关系的转变及其可能成因分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(2):384-395.
[11]彭加毅,孙照渤,倪东鸿.春季赤道东太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(3):385-390.
[12]柯宗建,华丽娟,钟霖浩,等.海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(5):536-544.
[13]王晓丹,钟中,谭言科,等.冬季黑潮延伸体异常增暖对东亚夏季风影响的数值实验[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(4):569-576.
[14]HUANG R H,SUN F Y.Impact of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian summer monsoon[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,1992,70:243-256.
[15]唐卫亚,孙照渤.印度洋海温偶极振荡对东亚环流及降水影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2005,28(3):316-322.
[16]肖子牛.印度洋偶极型异常海温的气候影响[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:51-64.
[17]晏红明,肖子牛.印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(1):18-27.
[18]吴国雄,孙凤英,王晓春.降水对热带海表温度的领域响应Ⅱ:资料分析[J].大气科学,1995,19(6):663-676.
[19]李峰,何金海.北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(3):260-271.
[20]晏红明,胡娟,周建琴,等.一个新的东亚副热带夏季风指数的定义[J].气象学报,2017,75(2):193-210.
[21]KALNAY E,KANAMIST M,KISTLER R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[22]严华生,王学仁.多因变量及要素场统计预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:28-29.
[23]陈丽娟,袁媛,杨明珠,等.海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(5):521-532.
[24]施能,顾骏强,黄先香,等.合成风场的统计检验和蒙特卡洛检验[J].大气科学,2004,28(6):950-956.
[25]LAU K M,KIM K M,YANG S.Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon[J].J Clim,2000,13(14):2 461-2 482.
[26]陶诗言,朱福康.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太副高进退的关系[J].气象学报,1964,34(4):385-396.
[27]赵兵科,姚秀萍,吴国雄.2003年夏季淮河流域梅雨期西太平洋副高机构和活动特征及动力机制分析[J].大气科学,2005,29(5):771-779.
[28]张玲,智协飞.南亚高压和西太副高位置与中国盛夏降水异常[J].气象科学,2010,30(4):438-444.
[2]吴捷,许小峰,金飞飞,等.斜压基本气流对东亚夏季风区气旋扰动低频发展影响的数值模拟研究[J].地球物理学报,2016,59(4):1 222-1 234.
[3]叶晓燕,陈崇成,罗明.东亚夏季降水与全球海温异常的年代际变化关系[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(9):984-994.
[4]吕心艳,张秀芝,陈锦年.东亚夏季风南北进退的年代际变化对我国区域降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(6):860-868.
[5]秦育婧,王盘兴.夏季东亚季风区Hadley环流上升支结构异常及其对长江流域降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(4):467-474.
[6]余丹丹,张韧,赵越超,等.西太平洋副高的东西进退与东亚夏季风系统的相互影响与关联[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(3):304-312.
[7]汪卫平,杨修群.索马里急流和澳洲越赤道气流年际变异不同配置及其影响[J].气象科学,2014,34(6):591-600.
[8]陆日宇,林中达,张耀存.夏季东亚高空急流的变化及其对东亚季风的影响[J].大气科学,2013,372(2):331-340.
[9]LU R Y.Associations among the components of the East Asian summer monsoon system in the meridional direction[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,2004,82:155-165.
[10]左金清,李维京,任宏利,等.春季北大西洋涛动与东亚夏季风年际关系的转变及其可能成因分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(2):384-395.
[11]彭加毅,孙照渤,倪东鸿.春季赤道东太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(3):385-390.
[12]柯宗建,华丽娟,钟霖浩,等.海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(5):536-544.
[13]王晓丹,钟中,谭言科,等.冬季黑潮延伸体异常增暖对东亚夏季风影响的数值实验[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(4):569-576.
[14]HUANG R H,SUN F Y.Impact of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian summer monsoon[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,1992,70:243-256.
[15]唐卫亚,孙照渤.印度洋海温偶极振荡对东亚环流及降水影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2005,28(3):316-322.
[16]肖子牛.印度洋偶极型异常海温的气候影响[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:51-64.
[17]晏红明,肖子牛.印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(1):18-27.
[18]吴国雄,孙凤英,王晓春.降水对热带海表温度的领域响应Ⅱ:资料分析[J].大气科学,1995,19(6):663-676.
[19]李峰,何金海.北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(3):260-271.
[20]晏红明,胡娟,周建琴,等.一个新的东亚副热带夏季风指数的定义[J].气象学报,2017,75(2):193-210.
[21]KALNAY E,KANAMIST M,KISTLER R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[22]严华生,王学仁.多因变量及要素场统计预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:28-29.
[23]陈丽娟,袁媛,杨明珠,等.海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(5):521-532.
[24]施能,顾骏强,黄先香,等.合成风场的统计检验和蒙特卡洛检验[J].大气科学,2004,28(6):950-956.
[25]LAU K M,KIM K M,YANG S.Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon[J].J Clim,2000,13(14):2 461-2 482.
[26]陶诗言,朱福康.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太副高进退的关系[J].气象学报,1964,34(4):385-396.
[27]赵兵科,姚秀萍,吴国雄.2003年夏季淮河流域梅雨期西太平洋副高机构和活动特征及动力机制分析[J].大气科学,2005,29(5):771-779.
[28]张玲,智协飞.南亚高压和西太副高位置与中国盛夏降水异常[J].气象科学,2010,30(4):438-444.