青岛汛期降水量与太平洋年代际振荡的关系
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摘要
基于太平洋海面温度(SST)、大气环流及青岛降水量资料,分析并发现了青岛汛期(6—9月)降水量与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数存在重要联系。当PDO处于冷位相时,西北太平洋区SST偏高,北美沿岸以及热带中东太平洋区SST偏低,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱偏东,脊线偏北,东亚夏季风偏强,青岛汛期降水量偏多,反之偏少。定义了一个新的太平洋SST距平指数SSTI,该指数包含了西北太平洋与热带中东太平洋SST距平反相变化的协同影响,也包含了PDO与ENSO的协同影响。与PDO指数、西北太平洋及热带中东太平洋SST相比,该指数与青岛汛期降水量相关性更好,通常SSTI正指数对应着汛期西太平洋副热带高压脊线偏北,面积偏小、强度偏弱,东亚夏季风偏强,有利于青岛汛期降水量偏多,反之偏少。SSTI指数可作为青岛汛期降水量预测的指示因子。
Based on the analysis of Pacific SST( sea surface temperature),atmospheric circulation,and precipitation in Qingdao,it is found that there is important relationship between the precipitation in Qingdao and the PDO( Pacific decadal oscillation) index during flood season. When the PDO is in the cold phase,the SST is higher over western North Pacific but lower over the coast of North America and tropical middle-eastern Pacific,the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker and eastward whose ridge line is northward,the East Asian summer monsoon is stronger,and the precipitation in Qingdao during flood season is more. Conversely,the precipitation is less. A new Pacific SST anomaly index,SSTI,is defined,which includes the synergistic effects of the out-of-phase changes of SST anomaly in western North Pacific and the tropical middle-eastern Pacific and also the synergistic effects of the PDO and ENSO. Compared with the PDO index and the SST over western North Pacific and the tropical middleeastern Pacific,this index has a better correlation with the precipitation in Qingdao during flood season.Generally,the positive SSTI corresponds to the northward position of the ridge line,smaller area and weak intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high during flood season and stronger East Asian summer monsoon,which is favorable for more precipitation in Qingdao during flood season. Conversely,the precipitation is less. So,the SSTI can be used as an indicator for the precipitation prediction during flood season in Qingdao.
Based on the analysis of Pacific SST( sea surface temperature),atmospheric circulation,and precipitation in Qingdao,it is found that there is important relationship between the precipitation in Qingdao and the PDO( Pacific decadal oscillation) index during flood season. When the PDO is in the cold phase,the SST is higher over western North Pacific but lower over the coast of North America and tropical middle-eastern Pacific,the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker and eastward whose ridge line is northward,the East Asian summer monsoon is stronger,and the precipitation in Qingdao during flood season is more. Conversely,the precipitation is less. A new Pacific SST anomaly index,SSTI,is defined,which includes the synergistic effects of the out-of-phase changes of SST anomaly in western North Pacific and the tropical middle-eastern Pacific and also the synergistic effects of the PDO and ENSO. Compared with the PDO index and the SST over western North Pacific and the tropical middleeastern Pacific,this index has a better correlation with the precipitation in Qingdao during flood season.Generally,the positive SSTI corresponds to the northward position of the ridge line,smaller area and weak intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high during flood season and stronger East Asian summer monsoon,which is favorable for more precipitation in Qingdao during flood season. Conversely,the precipitation is less. So,the SSTI can be used as an indicator for the precipitation prediction during flood season in Qingdao.
引文
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[12]陈丽娟,顾伟宗,伯忠凯,等.黄淮地区夏季降水的统计降尺度预测[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):129-141.
[13]费艳琴,孙即霖,郑美琴,等.山东夏季降水与太平洋海温异常及东亚大气环流的关系[J].山东气象,2006,26(2):1-4.
[14]郭飞燕,毕玮,郭飞龙,等.山东气候年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J].海洋与湖沼,2017,48(3):465-474.
[15]高晓梅,江静,袁俊鹏,等.影响山东热带气旋的频数与太平洋海温的关系[J].山东气象,2009,29(2):8-14.
[16]李辑,李菲,林蓉,等.东亚盛夏北上转向台风年代际变化及与PDO的关系[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(5):731-737.
[17]张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,2003,61(4):559-568.
[18]黎清才,邹树峰,张少林,等.山东省雨季开始标准的研究[J].山东气象,2003,23(1):17-19.
[19]贾小龙,陈丽娟,高辉,等.我国短期气候预测技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):641-655.
[2]程乘,朱益民,丁黄兴,等.中国东部地区夏季降水和环流的年代际转型及其与PDO的联系[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):450-457.
[3]唐民,吕俊梅.东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态及其与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].气象,2007,33(10):88-95.
[4]卢楚翰,管兆勇,李永华,等.太平洋年代际振荡与南北半球际大气质量振荡及东亚季风的联系[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):1084-1094.
[5]朱益民,杨修群.太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系[J].气象学报,2013,61(6):641-654.
[6]吕俊梅,祝从文,琚建华,等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):782-794.
[7]邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4):835-846.
[8]马柱国.华北干旱化趋势及转折性变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].科学通报,2007,52(10):1199-1206.
[9]任永建,宋连春,肖莺.1880-2010年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2016,39(4):445-454.
[10]杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4):789-797.
[11]马柱国,邵丽娟.中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(3):464-474.
[12]陈丽娟,顾伟宗,伯忠凯,等.黄淮地区夏季降水的统计降尺度预测[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):129-141.
[13]费艳琴,孙即霖,郑美琴,等.山东夏季降水与太平洋海温异常及东亚大气环流的关系[J].山东气象,2006,26(2):1-4.
[14]郭飞燕,毕玮,郭飞龙,等.山东气候年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J].海洋与湖沼,2017,48(3):465-474.
[15]高晓梅,江静,袁俊鹏,等.影响山东热带气旋的频数与太平洋海温的关系[J].山东气象,2009,29(2):8-14.
[16]李辑,李菲,林蓉,等.东亚盛夏北上转向台风年代际变化及与PDO的关系[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(5):731-737.
[17]张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,2003,61(4):559-568.
[18]黎清才,邹树峰,张少林,等.山东省雨季开始标准的研究[J].山东气象,2003,23(1):17-19.
[19]贾小龙,陈丽娟,高辉,等.我国短期气候预测技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):641-655.