西南地区冬季气温年代际变化及可能成因分析
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摘要
利用西南地区1970—2015年气象台站逐月气温资料,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析了西南地区冬季气温的年代际变化特征,并探讨了其年代际转折的可能物理机制。结果表明,西南地区冬季气温于1990年代前期发生暖突变。夏季热带西太平洋海温关键区(120～160°E,10°S～20°N)与西南地区冬季气温在同时期发生暖突变,由于大气对海洋变暖的响应,在其西北侧激发了异常的气旋式环流,这种准GILL态使得西南地区恰好处于偏东偏南的暖湿气流中,配合西风急流偏强偏北,东亚大槽浅薄,不利于冷空气南下,西太副高偏强偏西使西南地区受下沉气流控制增温,并处于暖平流影响下,造成西南地区冬季年代际变暖。
Stations monthly temperature observations are combined with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the interdecadal change characteristics of winter temperature in Southwest China. The possible physical mechanism is also discussed. The result shows that the winter temperature in Southwest China experienced a warm mutation in the early 1990 s. The tropical western pacific SST key area(10 °S～20 °N,120～160 °E) in summer has a same mutation period with the southwest winter temperature. Because of the response of the atmosphere to the warming of the oceans, anomalous cyclonic circulation has been inspired on the northwest side. The quasi Gill state makes the southwest area just in the southerly and easterly flows which are warm and humid, cooperate with westerly jet is strong and northward, East Asia major trough is shallow, make against the cold air to go south. Subtropical high over the West Pacific Ocean is strong and westward make the southwest area is controlled by the downward flow and under the influence of warm advection, causing the interdecadal warming in Southwest China in the winter.
Stations monthly temperature observations are combined with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the interdecadal change characteristics of winter temperature in Southwest China. The possible physical mechanism is also discussed. The result shows that the winter temperature in Southwest China experienced a warm mutation in the early 1990 s. The tropical western pacific SST key area(10 °S～20 °N,120～160 °E) in summer has a same mutation period with the southwest winter temperature. Because of the response of the atmosphere to the warming of the oceans, anomalous cyclonic circulation has been inspired on the northwest side. The quasi Gill state makes the southwest area just in the southerly and easterly flows which are warm and humid, cooperate with westerly jet is strong and northward, East Asia major trough is shallow, make against the cold air to go south. Subtropical high over the West Pacific Ocean is strong and westward make the southwest area is controlled by the downward flow and under the influence of warm advection, causing the interdecadal warming in Southwest China in the winter.
引文
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[25]蓝柳茹,李栋梁.西伯利亚高压的年际和年代际异常特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):662-674.
[26]江志红,吴燕珠,刘征宇,等.基于广义平衡反馈方法的2009/2010年中国冬季气温异常型的诊断[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(1):28-36.
[27]肖子牛,晏红明,李崇银.印度洋地区异常海温的偶极振荡与中国降水及温度的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2002,18(4):335-344.
[28]彭丽霞,朱伟军,李忠贤,等.南亚高压强度年代际变化及其与热带副热带海温关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(2):145-154.
[29]梁苏洁,丁一汇,赵南,等.近50年中国大陆冬季气温和区域环流的年代际变化研究[J].大气科学, 2014,38(5):974-992.
[30]刘芸芸,李维京,艾孑兑秀,等.月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(4):414-423.
[31] GILL A E. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J]. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 1980, 106(4):447-462.
[2] EASTERLING D R, WEHNER M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J].Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36(8):doi:10.1029/2009GL037810.
[3]陈隆勋,邵永宁,张清芬,等.近四十年我国气候变化的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,1991, 2(2):164-174.
[4]丁一汇,任国玉,赵宗慈,等.中国气候变化的检测及预估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象, 2007,1(1):1-10.
[5]朱志伟,何金海,钟珊珊,等.春夏东亚大气环流年代际转折的影响及可能的机理[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):440-451.
[6]刘晓冉,李国平,范广洲,等.西南地区经40a气温变化的时空特征分析[J].气象科学,2008:30-36.
[7]蒋兴文,李跃请.西南地区冬季气候异常的时空变化特征及其影响因子[J].地理学报, 2010:1325-1335.
[8]方之芳,张丽,程彦杰.北极海冰的气候变化与20世纪90年代的突变[J].干旱气象, 2005,23(3):1-11.
[9] WU B Y,ZHANG R H,WANG B,et al. On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese rainfall[J]. Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(9):L09501,doi:10.1029/2009G,L037299.
[10]武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,2001,59(4):414-428.
[11] LATIF M,KLEEMAN R,ECKERT C. Greenhouse warming,decadal variablity,or El Ni觡o an attempt to understand the anomalous1990s[J]. J Climate, 1997,10(9):2221-2239.
[12] YEH S W,KUG J S,DEWITTE B,et al. El ni觡o in a changing climate[J]. Nature 2009,461(7 263):511-514.
[13] COHEN J,BARLOW M. The NAO,the AO,and global warming:How closely related?[J]. J Climate, 2005,18(21):4 498-4 513.
[14] WANG B, HUANG F, WU Z W, et al. Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon:A review[J]. Dyn Atmos Oceans,2009,47(1-3):15-37.
[15]赵恩榕,简茂球,李春晖.华南降水季节演变的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(3):360-370.
[16]丁一汇,张莉.高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):794-805.
[17]郑然,李栋梁,蒋元春.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征[J].高原气象. 2015,34(6):1 531-1 539.
[18]丁一汇.全球气候变化中的物理问题[J].物理, 2009,38(2):71-83.
[19]伍红雨,杨崧.华南冬季气温异常与大气环流和海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(6):1 061-1 068
[20] KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KISTLER R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1996,77(3):437-471.
[21] RAYNER N A, PARKER D E, HORTON E B, et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J]. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108(D14):4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
[22]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社. 2007.
[23]齐冬梅,李跃清,陈永仁,等. 2010年东亚冬季风月内尺度振荡特征及其与西南地区冬季气温的关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(1):19-30.
[24]武炳义,苏京志,张人禾.秋-冬季节北极海冰对冬季西伯利亚高压的影响[J].科学通报,2011,56(27):2 335-2 343.
[25]蓝柳茹,李栋梁.西伯利亚高压的年际和年代际异常特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):662-674.
[26]江志红,吴燕珠,刘征宇,等.基于广义平衡反馈方法的2009/2010年中国冬季气温异常型的诊断[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(1):28-36.
[27]肖子牛,晏红明,李崇银.印度洋地区异常海温的偶极振荡与中国降水及温度的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2002,18(4):335-344.
[28]彭丽霞,朱伟军,李忠贤,等.南亚高压强度年代际变化及其与热带副热带海温关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(2):145-154.
[29]梁苏洁,丁一汇,赵南,等.近50年中国大陆冬季气温和区域环流的年代际变化研究[J].大气科学, 2014,38(5):974-992.
[30]刘芸芸,李维京,艾孑兑秀,等.月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(4):414-423.
[31] GILL A E. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J]. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 1980, 106(4):447-462.