过去2000年东亚夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究
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摘要
利用地球系统模式CESM过去2 000年气候模拟试验结果,探讨了在百年尺度上东亚夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、区分外强迫因子对东亚季风的影响有着重要的科学意义。研究表明:1东亚夏季风降水与温度基本同相变化,降水存在准100年、准150年和准200年周期。2降水标准化EOF第一模态为由北向南"负—正—负—正"的条带状空间分布,而EOF第二模态基本为全区一致的分布型态。3东亚夏季风降水准100年周期主要受太阳辐射、火山活动和气候系统内部变率的共同影响;准150年周期主要受太阳辐射的影响;准200年周期主要受太阳辐射和火山活动的影响。东亚夏季风降水在温带地区主要受温室气体和土地利用/覆盖的影响;在副热带地区主要受太阳辐射和火山活动的影响;在热带地区主要受太阳辐射、火山活动和气候系统内部变率的影响。
The characteristics and causes of the spatio-temporal variation of the EASM precipitation on centennial time scale were analyzed in this paper based on the climate simulation results over the past 2000 years using the Community Earth System Model( CESM). It has an important scientific significance to recognize the climate change on centennial time scale and to distinguish the influence of external forcing on the EASM. The results show:1The East Asian Summer Monsoon( EASM) precipitation and temperature mainly reflect an in phase variability on centennial time scale. We found that there are three periodicities( 100 a,150a and 200a) in the EASM precipitation. 2The spatial structures of the first mode of the standardization EOF of the EASM precipitation show the "minus-plus-minus-plus"zonal belts while the spatial structures of the second mode show almost an in phase variability in the East Asian region. 3The 100 year cycle of the EASM precipitation is caused by the total solar irradiation,the volcanic eruptions and the internal variability of climate system. The 150 year cycle is caused by the total solar irradiation and the 200 year cycle is caused by the total solar irradiation and the volcanic eruptions. The main cause of the spatial patterns of precipitation in the East Asian region is the total solar irradiation but forcings affect differently in different latitude. The factors affecting the spatial change of the extratropical EASM precipitation are the greenhouse gases and the land use and land cover change,while the factors affecting the spatial change of the subtropical EASM precipitation are the total solar irradiation and the volcanic eruptions. And the factors affecting the spatial change of the tropical EASM precipitation are the total solar irradiation,the volcanic eruptions and the internal variability of climate system.
The characteristics and causes of the spatio-temporal variation of the EASM precipitation on centennial time scale were analyzed in this paper based on the climate simulation results over the past 2000 years using the Community Earth System Model( CESM). It has an important scientific significance to recognize the climate change on centennial time scale and to distinguish the influence of external forcing on the EASM. The results show:1The East Asian Summer Monsoon( EASM) precipitation and temperature mainly reflect an in phase variability on centennial time scale. We found that there are three periodicities( 100 a,150a and 200a) in the EASM precipitation. 2The spatial structures of the first mode of the standardization EOF of the EASM precipitation show the "minus-plus-minus-plus"zonal belts while the spatial structures of the second mode show almost an in phase variability in the East Asian region. 3The 100 year cycle of the EASM precipitation is caused by the total solar irradiation,the volcanic eruptions and the internal variability of climate system. The 150 year cycle is caused by the total solar irradiation and the 200 year cycle is caused by the total solar irradiation and the volcanic eruptions. The main cause of the spatial patterns of precipitation in the East Asian region is the total solar irradiation but forcings affect differently in different latitude. The factors affecting the spatial change of the extratropical EASM precipitation are the greenhouse gases and the land use and land cover change,while the factors affecting the spatial change of the subtropical EASM precipitation are the total solar irradiation and the volcanic eruptions. And the factors affecting the spatial change of the tropical EASM precipitation are the total solar irradiation,the volcanic eruptions and the internal variability of climate system.
引文
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[2]Huang Ronghui,Gu Lei,Chen Jilong,et al.Recent progresses in studies of the temporal spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon system and their impacts on climate anomalies in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(4):691-719.[黄荣辉,顾雷,陈际龙,等.东亚季风系统的时空变化及其对我国气候异常影响的最近研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):691-719.]
[3]Zhu Kezhen.The enigma of southeast monsoon in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1934,1(1):1-27.[竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1):1-27.]
[4]Chang C P,Zhang Yongsheng,Li Tim.Inter-annual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical sea-surface temperatures.Part 1:Relation relationships with Yangtze River Valley rainfall[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13:4 310-4 325.
[5]Ding Yihui,Johnny C.The East Asian summer monsoon:An overview[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
[6]Guo Qiyun.The summer monsoon intensity index in East Asia and its variation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1983,38(3):207-217.[郭其蕴.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,1983,38(3):207-217.]
[7]Li Feng,He Jinhai.The decadal change of the interaction between northern pacific SSTA and the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2000,16(3):260-271.[李峰,何金海.北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(3):260-271.]
[8]Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,et al.How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Journal of Climate,2008,21(17):4 449-4 463.
[9]Huang Ronghui,Sun Fengying.Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the tropical western warm pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1994,18(2):141-151.[黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季风气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(2):141-151.]
[10]Zhou Liantong,Huang Ronghui.Research on the characteristics of interdecadal variability of summer climate in China and its possible cause[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2003,8(3):274-290.[周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):274-290.]
[11]Huang Ronghui,Chen Jilong,Huang Gang.Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(6):993-1 023.
[12]Ju Jianhua,Zhao Erxu.Impacts of the low frequency oscillation in East Asian summer monsoon on the drought and flooding in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2005,21(2):163-171.[琚建华,赵尔旭.东亚夏季风区的低频振荡对长江中下游旱涝的影响[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(2):163-171.]
[13]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The physical science basis[C]∥Stocker T F,Qin Dahe,Plattner G-K,et al.eds.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[14]Wei Zhudeng,Fang Xiuqi,Su Yun,et al.A review of climatic impacts on Chinese socio-economic development over the past2000 years[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(3):336-343.[魏柱灯,方修琦,苏筠,等.过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(3):336-343.]
[15]Ge Quansheng,Liu Jian,Fang Xiuqi,et al.General characteristics of temperature change and centennial warm periods during the past 2000 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):579-592.[葛全胜,刘健,方修琦,等.过去2000年冷暖变化的基本特征与主要暖期[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):579-592.]
[16]Ti Ruyuan,Gu Yajin,Liu Jian,et al.A modeling study on summer precipitation of the last 1000 years in East China[J].Quaternary Sciences,2009,29(6):1 104-1 114.[提汝媛,顾亚进,刘健,等.近千年中国东部夏季降水的模拟研究[J].第四纪研究,2009,29(6):1 104-1 114.]
[17]Kuang Xueyuan,Liu Jian,Wang Hongli,et al.Comparison of simulated and reconstructed precipitation in China during the last millennium[J].Advances in Earth Science,2009,24(2):159-171.[况雪源,刘健,王红丽,等.近千年来中国区域降水模拟与重建资料的对比分析[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(2):159-171.]
[18]Liu Jian,Wang Bin,Ding Qianghua,et al.Centennial variations of the global monsoon precipitation in the last millennium:Results from ECHO-G model[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(9):2 356-2 371.
[19]Man Wenmin,Zhou Tianjun.Regional-scale surface air temperature and East Asian summer monsoon changes during the last millennium simulated by the FGOALS-gl climate system model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2014,31(4):765-778.
[20]Wang Hongli,Liu Jian,Wang Zhiyuan,et al.A modeling study on centennial scale changes in Eastern China during the past1000 years[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2011,56(19):1 562-1 567.[王红丽,刘健,王志远,等.近千年中国东部夏季气候百年尺度变化的模拟分析[J].科学通报,2011,56(19):1 562-1 567.]
[21]Liu Jian,Wang Bin,Cane M A,et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing[J].Nature,2013,493(7 434):656-659.
[22]Liu Jian,Wang Bin,Wang Hongli,et al.Forced response of the East Asian summer rainfall over the past millennium:Results from a coupled model simulation[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,36(1/2):323-336.
[23]Kuang Xueyuan,Liu Jian,Lin Huijuan,et al.Comparison of east asian summer monsoon in three climate typical periods during last millennium based on ECHO-G simulation[J].Advances in Earth Science,2010,25(10):1 082-1 090.[况雪源,刘健,林惠娟,等.近千年来三个气候特征时期东亚夏季风的模拟对比[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(10):1 082-1 090.]
[24]Zhou Xiuji,Zhao Ping,Liu Ge,et al.Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2011,56(25):2 060-2 067.[周秀骥,赵平,刘舸,等.中世纪暖期、小冰期与现代东亚夏季风环流和降水年代—百年尺度变化特征分析[J].科学通报,2011,56(25):2 060-2 067.]
[25]Man Wenmin,Zhou Tianjun,Jungclaus J.Simulation of the east Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium with the MPI Earth system model[J].Journal of Climate,2012,25(22):7 852-7 866.
[26]Yu Shihua,Qian Zhencheng.Features and probable mechanism of the medium—Range variation of East-Asia summer monsoon circulation system[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1992,3(1):114-119.[喻世华,钱贞成.东亚夏季环流的中期变动特征和可能机制[J].应用气象学报,1992,3(1):114-119.]
[27]Yan Ying.Discussion on the temporal variation and forecast of the East Asian monsoon[J].Journal of Marine Sciences,2012,30(2):21-26.[颜映.东亚季风的时间变化及其预报探讨[J].海洋学研究,2012,30(2):21-26.]
[28]Chen Longxun,Li Wei,Zhao Ping,et al.On the process of summer monsoon onset over East Asia[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2000,5(4):345-355.[陈隆勋,李薇,赵平,等.东亚地区夏季风爆发过程[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(4):345-355.]
[29]Rosenbloom N A,Otto-Bliesner B L,Brady E C,et al.Simulating the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with the CCSM 4 model[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2013,6(2):549-561.
[30]Shapiro A I,Schmutz W,Rozanov E,et al.A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing[J].Astronomy&Astrophysics,2011,529(A67):1-8.
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