四川区域融合降水产品的质量评估
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摘要
本文利用四川省156个国家地面气象观测自动站2018年逐小时降水资料,从降水产品与观测值的对比、降水产品误差空间特征、降水产品误差月变化、不同降水量级的误差特征等方面,对国家气象信息中心研制的中国区域1h、0.05°×0.05°分辨率的地面-卫星-雷达三源融合实时降水产品和地面-卫星二源融合快速降水产品在四川区域的适用性进行对比评估。研究结果表明,两套融合降水产品能较好的反映四川区域年内小时降水的时空变化特征,与站点观测降水相比,两套融合降水产品均存在一定程度的低估,且随着降水量级的增大,均方根误差值也相应增大。两套融合降水产品相比,融合了雷达资料的三源融合降水产品各项指标均优于二源融合降水产品,数据质量更高。
In order to assess the applicability of merged precipitation products in the Sichuan region,the hourly observed precipitation data collected from 156 national automatic weather stations of Sichuan Province, and two sets of merged precipitation products developed by National Meteorological Information Centre are used. The two precipitation products are gauge-satellite-radar combined real-time precipitation product and gauge-satellite combined rapid precipitation product, they are all hourly products with 0.05°resolution. The comparison between precipitation products and observed values, spatial characteristics of precipitation product error, monthly variations of precipitation product error, and error characteristics of different precipitation levels are analyzed. The results show that two sets of merged precipitation products can reflect the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of hourly precipitation better in the Sichuan region during the year. Compared with the rain gauge data, both sets of precipitation products have a certain degree of underestimation, and the root mean square error value increases with the rise of precipitation level. Additionally, the three-source merged precipitation product that combines radar data has higher quality than the two-source merged precipitation product.
In order to assess the applicability of merged precipitation products in the Sichuan region,the hourly observed precipitation data collected from 156 national automatic weather stations of Sichuan Province, and two sets of merged precipitation products developed by National Meteorological Information Centre are used. The two precipitation products are gauge-satellite-radar combined real-time precipitation product and gauge-satellite combined rapid precipitation product, they are all hourly products with 0.05°resolution. The comparison between precipitation products and observed values, spatial characteristics of precipitation product error, monthly variations of precipitation product error, and error characteristics of different precipitation levels are analyzed. The results show that two sets of merged precipitation products can reflect the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of hourly precipitation better in the Sichuan region during the year. Compared with the rain gauge data, both sets of precipitation products have a certain degree of underestimation, and the root mean square error value increases with the rise of precipitation level. Additionally, the three-source merged precipitation product that combines radar data has higher quality than the two-source merged precipitation product.
引文
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[13] 朱占云,潘娅英,骆月珍,等.浙江省水库流域面雨量的多模式预报效果分析与检验[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):93-100
[2] 宇婧婧,沈艳,潘旸,等.概率密度匹配法对中国区域卫星降水资料的改进[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(5):544-553
[3] 潘旸,沈艳,宇婧婧,等,基于贝叶斯融合方法的高分辨率地面一卫星一雷达三源降水融合试验[J].气象学报,2015,73(1):177-186
[4] 任芝花,赵平,张强,等.适用于全国自动站小时降水资料的质量控制方法[J].气象,2010,36 (7):123-132
[5] 李显风,周自江,李志鹏,等.基于江西省水文资料对中国融合降水产品的质量评估[J].气象,2017,43(12):1534-1546
[6] 沈艳,潘旸,宇婧婧,等.中国区域小时降水量融合产品的质量评估[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(1):37-46
[7] 宇婧婧,沈艳,潘旸,等,中国区域逐日融合降水数据集与国际降水产品的对比评估[J].气象学报,2015,73(2):394-410
[8] 张蒙蒙,江志红.我国高分辨率降水融合资料的适用性评估[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(4):46-471
[9] 江志红,卢尧,丁裕国.基于时空结构指标的中国融合降水资料质量评估[J].气象学报,2013,71(5):891-900
[10] 王若瑜,谭云廷,程炳岩,等.基于高分辨率区域气候模式的三峡库区降水变化模拟与预估[J].干旱气象,2017,35(2):291-298
[11] 郑广芬,王素艳,杨建玲,等.基于前期海温异常的宁夏5～9月候降水量客观预测方法及检验评估[J].干旱气象,2016,34(1):43-50
[12] 卢珊,张宏芳,屈直,等.1961—2015年陕西省不同等级降水事件变化特征[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(1):77-85
[13] 朱占云,潘娅英,骆月珍,等.浙江省水库流域面雨量的多模式预报效果分析与检验[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):93-100