基于熵理论的四川省可持续发展评价研究
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摘要
为实现区域可持续发展目标,进一步提升四川省可持续发展水平,本文以熵和耗散结构理论构建了区域可持续发展水平评价方法。首先依据可持续发展目标、区域发展规划建立了四川省可持续发展评价指标体系;其次通过人地系统熵值来衡量四川省可持续发展水平;最后根据指标熵权和库兹涅茨曲线分析四川省可持续发展阶段和需要重点关注的内容。研究结果显示,四川省多年来依靠经济和社会子系统的良好发展可持续发展水平明显提升,社会、经济和环境子系统分别呈现出稳步提升、抗冲击能力强和存在隐患的发展特征;并且环境子系统中氨氮排放量、环保投资与研发、水及空气环境质量是四川省可持续发展的主要影响因素。
In order to realize the regional sustainable development goal and further improve the level of sustainable development in Sichuan Province, this paper established the evaluation method of regional sustainability level based on entropy and dissipative structure theory. First of all, the Evaluation Index System of sustainable development in Sichuan Province was established base on sustainable development goals and Regional development Plan. Secondly, the sustainable development level of Sichuan province was measured by the entropy value of human-land system. Finally, according to the index entropy weight and kuznets curve, the sustainable development stage and the key content in Sichuan Province were analyzed. The results showed that(1) based on good economic and social development, the level of sustainable development in Sichuan Province has been significantly improved, and the social, economic and environmental subsystems show the characteristics of steady improvement, strong impact resistance and hidden dangers.(2) Ammonia nitrogen emissions, R&D and investment of environmental, water and air environment quality were the main influencing factors of sustainable development in Sichuan Province
In order to realize the regional sustainable development goal and further improve the level of sustainable development in Sichuan Province, this paper established the evaluation method of regional sustainability level based on entropy and dissipative structure theory. First of all, the Evaluation Index System of sustainable development in Sichuan Province was established base on sustainable development goals and Regional development Plan. Secondly, the sustainable development level of Sichuan province was measured by the entropy value of human-land system. Finally, according to the index entropy weight and kuznets curve, the sustainable development stage and the key content in Sichuan Province were analyzed. The results showed that(1) based on good economic and social development, the level of sustainable development in Sichuan Province has been significantly improved, and the social, economic and environmental subsystems show the characteristics of steady improvement, strong impact resistance and hidden dangers.(2) Ammonia nitrogen emissions, R&D and investment of environmental, water and air environment quality were the main influencing factors of sustainable development in Sichuan Province
引文
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[15] 马民涛,杜改芳,梁增强,等.基于熵值法的济南市可持续发展能力动态研究[J].四川环境,2013,32(5):49-54.
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[17] 李元年.基于熵理论的指标体系区分度测算与权重设计[D].南京航空航天大学,2008.
[18] 郗炳峰.基于熵及耗散结构理论的生产系统分析研究[D].天津大学,2009.
[19] 张妍,杨志峰,何孟常,等.基于信息熵的城市生态系统演化分析[J].环境科学学报,2005,(8):1127-1134.
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[21] 刘玮.城市可持续发展评价指标体系与模型研究[D].天津大学,2010.
[22] 孙新章.中国参与2030年可持续发展议程的战略思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(1):1-7.
[23] 刘月,赵文武,张骁.助推2030可持续发展议程环境目标落实——第二届联合国环境大会会议简述[J].生态学报,2016,36(12):3843-3846.
[24] 薛澜,翁凌飞.中国实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标的政策机遇和挑战[J].中国软科学,2017,(1):1-12.
[2] 熊娜,杨云彦.真实储蓄:中国可持续发展的测量与检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(6):162-168.
[3] 陆俐呐,葛察忠,林爱军,等.基于生态足迹和生态承载力的湖北省利川市可持续发展研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(S2):124-129.
[4] 韩增林,胡伟,钟敬秋,等.基于能值分析的中国海洋生态经济可持续发展评价[J].生态学报,2017,(8):2563-2574.
[5] Wenjun Peng,Xiaoming Wang,Xiaokang Li,Chenchen He.Sustainability evaluation based on the emergy ecological footprint method:A case study of Qingdao,China,from 2004 to 2014[J].Ecological Indicators 2018,85:1249-1261.
[6] Shaozhuo Zhong,Yong Geng,Hainan Kong,Bin Liu,Xu Tian,Wei Chen,Yiying Qian,Sergio Ulgiati.Emergy-based sustainability evaluation of Erhai Lake Basin in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production 2018,178:142-153.
[7] 曹辉.基于熵权灰色关联模型的陕西省可持续发展能力探究[J].科技进步与对策,2014,27(9):51-55.
[8] Olfa Toumi,Julie Le Gallo,Jaleleddine Ben Rejeb.Assessment of Latin American sustainability[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2017,78:878-885.
[9] 郭清娥,王雪青,位珍.基于DEA交叉评价的模糊综合评价模型及其应用[J].控制与决策,2012,27(4):575-578,583.
[10] Haibo Zhou,Yi Yang,Yao Chen,Joe Zhu.Data envelopment analysis application in sustainability:The origins,development and future directions[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2018,264:1-16.
[11] Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini,Shinji Kaneko.Dynamic sustainability assessment of countries at the macro level:A principal component analysis[J].Ecological Indicators,2011,11(3):811-823.
[12] 董燕红,钟定胜,卢小丽.主成分与层次分析法在区域可持续发展能力评价中的应用对比[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(1):359-365.
[13] 吴剑,吴海锁,陈小林,等.基于熵权理论的江苏省环境服务业发展状况及对策分析[J].四川环境,2015,34(5):117-122.
[14] 赵希锦,叶宏,邓新华,等.基于熵值法的环境科技能力综合评价研究[J].四川环境,2013,32(S1):138-142.
[15] 马民涛,杜改芳,梁增强,等.基于熵值法的济南市可持续发展能力动态研究[J].四川环境,2013,32(5):49-54.
[16] 林珍铭,夏斌.熵视角下的广州城市生态系统可持续发展能力分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(1):45-57.
[17] 李元年.基于熵理论的指标体系区分度测算与权重设计[D].南京航空航天大学,2008.
[18] 郗炳峰.基于熵及耗散结构理论的生产系统分析研究[D].天津大学,2009.
[19] 张妍,杨志峰,何孟常,等.基于信息熵的城市生态系统演化分析[J].环境科学学报,2005,(8):1127-1134.
[20] 张继国,Vijay P Singh.信息熵:理论与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2012:79-80.
[21] 刘玮.城市可持续发展评价指标体系与模型研究[D].天津大学,2010.
[22] 孙新章.中国参与2030年可持续发展议程的战略思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(1):1-7.
[23] 刘月,赵文武,张骁.助推2030可持续发展议程环境目标落实——第二届联合国环境大会会议简述[J].生态学报,2016,36(12):3843-3846.
[24] 薛澜,翁凌飞.中国实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标的政策机遇和挑战[J].中国软科学,2017,(1):1-12.