人口老龄化会影响企业出口产品质量吗?
|
摘要
基于2000-2013年省级层面的人口老龄化数据和企业层面的出口产品质量数据,考量人口老龄化对我国企业出口产品质量的影响效应。结果发现,人口老龄化对企业出口产品质量具有显著的抑制作用,并存在着区域、行业和所有制之间的差异性。鉴此,应尽快完善相关配套的支持性措施,助力"全面二孩"政策红利的释放;加快延迟退休年龄政策的制定与推行速度,充分开发与利用老年人力资源;加速企业由要素驱动转向技术驱动,摆脱对廉价劳动力的依赖,并根据区域、行业和所有制之间的差异,针对性地采取差别化战略。
Based on the data of population aging at provincial level and export product quality at enterprise level from 2000 to 2013, this paper studies the impact of population aging on the export product quality of Chinese enterprises. The results show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on the firm's export product quality, and there are differences among regions, industries and ownership. In view of this, relevant supporting measures should be improved as soon as possible to help release the dividend of the Universal Two-child Policy, to speed up the formulation and implementation of the policy of delaying retirement age, to fully exploit and utilize the human resources of the elderly, to speed up the transformation of enterprises from factor-driven to technology-driven, to get rid of the dependence on cheap labor force; and then we should adopt differentiated strategies according to the differences between regional industries and ownership systems.
Based on the data of population aging at provincial level and export product quality at enterprise level from 2000 to 2013, this paper studies the impact of population aging on the export product quality of Chinese enterprises. The results show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on the firm's export product quality, and there are differences among regions, industries and ownership. In view of this, relevant supporting measures should be improved as soon as possible to help release the dividend of the Universal Two-child Policy, to speed up the formulation and implementation of the policy of delaying retirement age, to fully exploit and utilize the human resources of the elderly, to speed up the transformation of enterprises from factor-driven to technology-driven, to get rid of the dependence on cheap labor force; and then we should adopt differentiated strategies according to the differences between regional industries and ownership systems.
引文
[1] 郑伟,林山君,陈凯.中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(8):3-20.
[2] Modigliani F,Brumberg R.Utility analysis and the consumption function:An interpretation of the cross-section data[J].Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,1954 (21):388-436.
[3] Coale A J,Hoover E M.Population growth and economic development in India,1956-1986[J].Population,1958,13(2):348-381.
[4] Helen F,Ladd Sheila E.Murray.Intergenerational conflict reconsidered:county demographic structure and the demand for public education[J].Economics of Education Review,2001,20(4):343-357.
[5] Dormont Brigitte,Grignon Michel,Huber Hélène.Health expenditure growth:reassessing the threat of ageing[J].Health Economics,2006,15(9):947-963.
[6] Pecchenino R A,Pollard P S.Dependent children and aged parents:funding education and social security in an aging economy[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2002,24(2):145-169.
[7] 阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响研究[J].财经研究,2017,43(2):122-134.
[8] 郭瑜.人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(11):49-58.
[9] 周浩,刘平.中国人口老龄化对劳动力供给和劳动生产率的影响研究[J].理论学刊,2016(3):106-110.
[10] 蔡昉,张车伟.劳动经济学[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2015.
[11] 殷德生.中国入世以来出口产品质量升级的决定因素与变动趋势[J].财贸经济,2011(11):31-38.
[12] 汪建新.贸易自由化、质量差距与地区出口产品质量升级[J].国际贸易问题,2014(10):3-13+143.
[13] 施炳展.中国企业出口产品质量异质性:测度与事实[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):263-284.
[14] 高越,李荣林.国际市场竞争与中国出口产品质量的提高[J].产业经济研究,2015(3):11-20.
[15] 许明.提高劳动报酬有利于企业出口产品质量提升吗?[J].经济评论,2016(5):96-109.
[16] 杜威剑,李梦洁.对外直接投资会提高企业出口产品质量吗——基于倾向得分匹配的变权估计[J].国际贸易问题,2015(8):112-122.
[17] 李怀建,沈坤荣.出口产品质量的影响因素分析——基于跨国面板数据的检验[J].产业经济研究,2015(6):62-72.
[18] 景光正,李平.OFDI是否提升了中国的出口产品质量[J].国际贸易问题,2016(8):131-142.
[19] 张杰,郑文平,翟福昕.中国出口产品质量得到提升了么?[J].经济研究,2014,49(10):46-59.
[20] 张杰,翟福昕,周晓艳.政府补贴、市场竞争与出口产品质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(4):71-87.
[21] 许家云,毛其淋,胡鞍钢.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级:基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(3):52-75.
[22] 王有鑫,王猛,赵雅婧.人口老龄化促进了出口产品质量升级吗?[J].财贸研究,2015,26(2):61-69.
[23] 高晓娜,兰宜生.产能过剩对出口产品质量的影响——来自微观企业数据的证据[J].国际贸易问题,2016(10):50-61.
[24] 龚关,胡关亮.中国制造业资源配置效率与全要素生产率[J].经济研究,2013,48(4):4-15+29.
[25] Hamermesh D S,Pfann G A.Adjustment costs in factor demand[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1996,34(3):1264-1292.
[26] Kugler M,Verhoogen E.Prices,Plant Size,and Product Quality[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(1):307-339.
[27] Grandmont J M,Pintus P,De Vilder R.Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1998,80(1):14-59.
[28] Salop S C.A model of the natural rate of unemployment[J].The American Economic Review,1979,69 (1):117-12.
[29] Shapiro C,Stiglitz J E.Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device[J].The American Economic Review,1984,74(3):433-444.
[30] Khandelwal A K,P K Schott,S Wei.Trade liberalization and embedded institutional reform:exporters[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(6):2169-2196.
[31] United Nations.The aging of populations and its economic and social implications[M].The Dept.1956.
[32] 许和连,王海成.最低工资标准对企业出口产品质量的影响研究[J].世界经济,2016,39(7):73-96.
[33] Head K,Ries J.Heterogeneity and the FDI versus export decision of Japanese manufacturers[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2003,17(4) :448-467.
[34] Kleibergen F,Paap R.Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition[J].Journal of Econometrics,2006,133(1):97-126.
[2] Modigliani F,Brumberg R.Utility analysis and the consumption function:An interpretation of the cross-section data[J].Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,1954 (21):388-436.
[3] Coale A J,Hoover E M.Population growth and economic development in India,1956-1986[J].Population,1958,13(2):348-381.
[4] Helen F,Ladd Sheila E.Murray.Intergenerational conflict reconsidered:county demographic structure and the demand for public education[J].Economics of Education Review,2001,20(4):343-357.
[5] Dormont Brigitte,Grignon Michel,Huber Hélène.Health expenditure growth:reassessing the threat of ageing[J].Health Economics,2006,15(9):947-963.
[6] Pecchenino R A,Pollard P S.Dependent children and aged parents:funding education and social security in an aging economy[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2002,24(2):145-169.
[7] 阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响研究[J].财经研究,2017,43(2):122-134.
[8] 郭瑜.人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(11):49-58.
[9] 周浩,刘平.中国人口老龄化对劳动力供给和劳动生产率的影响研究[J].理论学刊,2016(3):106-110.
[10] 蔡昉,张车伟.劳动经济学[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2015.
[11] 殷德生.中国入世以来出口产品质量升级的决定因素与变动趋势[J].财贸经济,2011(11):31-38.
[12] 汪建新.贸易自由化、质量差距与地区出口产品质量升级[J].国际贸易问题,2014(10):3-13+143.
[13] 施炳展.中国企业出口产品质量异质性:测度与事实[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):263-284.
[14] 高越,李荣林.国际市场竞争与中国出口产品质量的提高[J].产业经济研究,2015(3):11-20.
[15] 许明.提高劳动报酬有利于企业出口产品质量提升吗?[J].经济评论,2016(5):96-109.
[16] 杜威剑,李梦洁.对外直接投资会提高企业出口产品质量吗——基于倾向得分匹配的变权估计[J].国际贸易问题,2015(8):112-122.
[17] 李怀建,沈坤荣.出口产品质量的影响因素分析——基于跨国面板数据的检验[J].产业经济研究,2015(6):62-72.
[18] 景光正,李平.OFDI是否提升了中国的出口产品质量[J].国际贸易问题,2016(8):131-142.
[19] 张杰,郑文平,翟福昕.中国出口产品质量得到提升了么?[J].经济研究,2014,49(10):46-59.
[20] 张杰,翟福昕,周晓艳.政府补贴、市场竞争与出口产品质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(4):71-87.
[21] 许家云,毛其淋,胡鞍钢.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级:基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(3):52-75.
[22] 王有鑫,王猛,赵雅婧.人口老龄化促进了出口产品质量升级吗?[J].财贸研究,2015,26(2):61-69.
[23] 高晓娜,兰宜生.产能过剩对出口产品质量的影响——来自微观企业数据的证据[J].国际贸易问题,2016(10):50-61.
[24] 龚关,胡关亮.中国制造业资源配置效率与全要素生产率[J].经济研究,2013,48(4):4-15+29.
[25] Hamermesh D S,Pfann G A.Adjustment costs in factor demand[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1996,34(3):1264-1292.
[26] Kugler M,Verhoogen E.Prices,Plant Size,and Product Quality[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(1):307-339.
[27] Grandmont J M,Pintus P,De Vilder R.Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1998,80(1):14-59.
[28] Salop S C.A model of the natural rate of unemployment[J].The American Economic Review,1979,69 (1):117-12.
[29] Shapiro C,Stiglitz J E.Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device[J].The American Economic Review,1984,74(3):433-444.
[30] Khandelwal A K,P K Schott,S Wei.Trade liberalization and embedded institutional reform:exporters[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(6):2169-2196.
[31] United Nations.The aging of populations and its economic and social implications[M].The Dept.1956.
[32] 许和连,王海成.最低工资标准对企业出口产品质量的影响研究[J].世界经济,2016,39(7):73-96.
[33] Head K,Ries J.Heterogeneity and the FDI versus export decision of Japanese manufacturers[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2003,17(4) :448-467.
[34] Kleibergen F,Paap R.Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition[J].Journal of Econometrics,2006,133(1):97-126.