当前中国工业发展问题与未来高质量发展对策
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摘要
工业发展是中国经济高质量发展的基础和建设社会主义现代化强国的关键,这是因为工业是技术创新的第一源泉和核心领域,是国民经济效率提升的物质基础和可持续发展的根本保证。离开工业实体经济的发展,中国有陷入"中等收入陷阱"的危险。当前要特别警惕"去工业化""逆库兹涅茨化"现象的发展,并在第四次工业革命来袭之际,抓住机会加快推进制造强国和现代化经济体系建设。目前,中国工业发展存在的主要问题有:关键领域的技术创新能力不足,基础研究投入不足;要素成本上升,企业盈利能力下降;产能过剩问题严重,经济运行风险加大;增长方式相对粗放,质量和效率亟待提高;国际竞争中面临"双端挤压",经贸摩擦加剧。中国工业发展的诸多问题,迫切需要推进高质量发展,认为应从产业政策转型、增强自主创新能力,推进供给侧结构性改革,强化人力资本积累,推动新一轮高水平对外开放等5个方面促进工业的高质量发展。
Industrial development is the foundation of China's high-quality economic development and the key to building a modern and powerful socialist country,due to the fact that industry is the first source and core area of technological innovation,the material basis for improving the efficiency of the national economy and the fundamental guarantee for sustainable development. Without the development of industrial real economy,China may fall into the " middle-income trap ". China should be especially vigilant in the development of " de-industrialization" and " anti-Kuznets" phenomenon. When the Fourth Industrial Revolution comes,China should seize the opportunity to accelerate the construction of a powerful manufacturing country and a modern economic system. The main problems existing in China' s industrial development are: lack of technological innovation in key areas and insufficient input in basic research; factor cost increases and business profitability decreases; excess capacity problem is serious and economic operation risk is increasing; the growth mode is relatively extensive,and the quality and efficiency need to be improved; international competition is facing " double ended extrusion " and economic and trade frictions intensified. It is urgent to promote the development of high quality industries. This paper argues that China should promote high-quality industrial development from five aspects: industrial policy transformation,enhancing the ability of independent innovation,promoting supply-side structural reform,strengthening the accumulation of human capital,and promoting a new round of high-level opening up.
Industrial development is the foundation of China's high-quality economic development and the key to building a modern and powerful socialist country,due to the fact that industry is the first source and core area of technological innovation,the material basis for improving the efficiency of the national economy and the fundamental guarantee for sustainable development. Without the development of industrial real economy,China may fall into the " middle-income trap ". China should be especially vigilant in the development of " de-industrialization" and " anti-Kuznets" phenomenon. When the Fourth Industrial Revolution comes,China should seize the opportunity to accelerate the construction of a powerful manufacturing country and a modern economic system. The main problems existing in China' s industrial development are: lack of technological innovation in key areas and insufficient input in basic research; factor cost increases and business profitability decreases; excess capacity problem is serious and economic operation risk is increasing; the growth mode is relatively extensive,and the quality and efficiency need to be improved; international competition is facing " double ended extrusion " and economic and trade frictions intensified. It is urgent to promote the development of high quality industries. This paper argues that China should promote high-quality industrial development from five aspects: industrial policy transformation,enhancing the ability of independent innovation,promoting supply-side structural reform,strengthening the accumulation of human capital,and promoting a new round of high-level opening up.
引文
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[14]吴敬琏,八田达夫,陈清泰.反思产业政策[J].比较,2016(6):260-279.
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[16]黄阳华.工业革命中生产组织方式变革的历史考察与展望---基于康德拉季耶夫长波的分析[J].中国人民大学学报,2016,30(3):66-77.
(1)本文作者根据统计数据计算得到。
(1)所谓不可移动生产要素通常是指土地和矿产等这样存在于特定区域内且不可做物理移动的生产要素,也包括一定程度上由地方政府掌控的贷款、担保和招商引资政策。
[2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所.中国工业发展报告(2017)[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2017.
[3]瓦科拉夫·斯米尔.美国制造:国家繁荣为什么离不开制造业[M].李凤海,刘寅龙,译.北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
[4]郭朝先,王宏霞.中国制造业发展与“中国制造2025”规划[J].经济研究参考,2015(31):3-13.
[5]黄群慧,郭朝先,刘艳红,等.可持续工业化与创新驱动[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.
[6]黄群慧,李芳芳.中国工业化进程(1995-2015)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.
[7]金碚.资源与环境约束下的中国工业发展[J].中国工业经济,2005(4):5-14.
[8]克劳斯·施瓦布.我们正经历第四次工业革命[J].商周刊,2016(Z1):60-62.
[9]李鹏飞.我国集成电路产业发展的问题及对策建议[J].发展研究,2017(12):71-74.
[10]HALLWARD-DRIEMEIER M,NAYYAR G.Trouble in the making?the future of manufacturing-led development[M]∥世界银行工作论文“中国经济报告”,Singapore:World Bank Publications,2017.
[11]国家统计局.能源发展呈现新格局节能降耗取得新进展---党的十八大以来经济社会发展成就系列之二十三[EB/OL].(2017-07-28)[2018-10-20].http:∥www.stats.gov.cn/ztjc/ztfx/18fzcj.
[12]国务院.关于印发节能减排“十二五”规划的通知[EB/OL].(2012-08-06)[2018-10-20].http:∥www.gov.cn/zwgk/2012-08/21/content_2207867.htm.
[13]中国全球价值链课题组.全球价值链与中国贸易增加值核算研究报告[EB/OL].(2014-12-23)[2018-10-20].http:∥www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ai/201412/20141200843799.shtml.
[14]吴敬琏,八田达夫,陈清泰.反思产业政策[J].比较,2016(6):260-279.
[15]刘戒骄.完善市场化解产能过剩的保障机制[J].中国经贸导刊,2018(9):45.
[16]黄阳华.工业革命中生产组织方式变革的历史考察与展望---基于康德拉季耶夫长波的分析[J].中国人民大学学报,2016,30(3):66-77.
(1)本文作者根据统计数据计算得到。
(1)所谓不可移动生产要素通常是指土地和矿产等这样存在于特定区域内且不可做物理移动的生产要素,也包括一定程度上由地方政府掌控的贷款、担保和招商引资政策。