基于去趋势分析的中国温带旱柳开花始期对气候变暖的响应
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摘要
为了更准确地揭示植物在物候水平上对气温变化的响应与适应机制,在去气温和物候时间序列趋势的基础上,建立日尺度的气温-物候回归模型,分析中国温带地区40个站点1986-2011年旱柳开花始期对气温变化的响应与适应机理。结果表明:中国温带地区77.5%的站点旱柳开花始期呈提前趋势,相应的敏感时段春季气温则呈上升趋势(0.8±0.5℃·10a~(-1))。其中,75%的站点物候期或气温时间序列存在显著变化趋势。进行去趋势处理后,17.5%的站点相关性发生变化,去趋势前其相关性较低,去趋势后,表现为显著负相关;模拟的均方根误差(RMSE)从去趋势前的5.5d降至去趋势后的4.9d,说明去趋势方法能提高气温-物候响应关系诊断的精确度。基于去时间序列线性趋势的气温-物候回归模型,得到92.5%的站点旱柳开花期与敏感时段春季气温呈显著负相关关系,即随着气温的升高,旱柳开花期呈提前趋势,其线性响应速率为-2.5±2.1d·℃~(-1)。
In order to reveal the response and plasticity mechanism of the plant to climate change more accurately, we established the daily mean air temperature-based phenology model on the basis of detrending inter annual variation in climate and phenology and analyzed Salix matsudana's first flowering response to climate change and plasticity mechanism at 40 stations in the temperate zone of China from 1986 to 2011.The results showed that 77.5% of first flowering at the stations in the temperate zone of China advanced, and the climate in the corresponding sensitive period became warmer(0.8±0.5℃·10 y~(-1)). 75% of sites phenology or temperature time series had a significant trend at 40 stations. Comparing with detrending and actual values, 17.5% of relationships changed. Before detrending, the correlation was not significant. However, the results showed significant negative correlations after detrending. The root-mean-square error of the simulation( RMSE) decreased from 5.5 days to 4.9 days, indicating that the detrending method can improve the accuracy of the temperature response to phenology. Therefore, based on the temperature-phenology regression model with detrending time series, 92.5% of stations had a significant negative correlation between the first floweing and spring temperature at the sensitive period, and the linear response rate was-2.5±2.1 d·℃~(-1).
In order to reveal the response and plasticity mechanism of the plant to climate change more accurately, we established the daily mean air temperature-based phenology model on the basis of detrending inter annual variation in climate and phenology and analyzed Salix matsudana's first flowering response to climate change and plasticity mechanism at 40 stations in the temperate zone of China from 1986 to 2011.The results showed that 77.5% of first flowering at the stations in the temperate zone of China advanced, and the climate in the corresponding sensitive period became warmer(0.8±0.5℃·10 y~(-1)). 75% of sites phenology or temperature time series had a significant trend at 40 stations. Comparing with detrending and actual values, 17.5% of relationships changed. Before detrending, the correlation was not significant. However, the results showed significant negative correlations after detrending. The root-mean-square error of the simulation( RMSE) decreased from 5.5 days to 4.9 days, indicating that the detrending method can improve the accuracy of the temperature response to phenology. Therefore, based on the temperature-phenology regression model with detrending time series, 92.5% of stations had a significant negative correlation between the first floweing and spring temperature at the sensitive period, and the linear response rate was-2.5±2.1 d·℃~(-1).
引文
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[19]史代敏,谢小燕.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011:3-5,14-15.Shi D M,Xie X Y.Applied time series analysis[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2011:3-5,14-15.(in Chinese)
[20]Her A M,Inouye D W.Schmidt N M,et al.Detrending phenological time series improves climate-phenology analyses and reveals evidence of plasticity[J].Ecology,2017,98(3):647-655.
[21]张家诚.中国气候总论[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:259-263.Zhang J C.A series of climate for China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1991:259-263.(in Chinese)
[22]Chen X Q,Xu L.Temperature controls on the spatial pattern of tree phenology in China’s temperate zone[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2012,154(155):195-202.
[23]中国森林编辑委员会.中国森林[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2000:1320-1322.China Forestry Committee.China forestry[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2000:1320-1322.(in Chinese)
[24]Hudson I L,Keatley M R.Phenological research:methods for environmental and climate change analysis[J].DordrechtHeidelberg-London-New York:Springer,2009:35-37.
[25]国家气象局.农业气象观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,1993:136-141.China Meteorological Administration.Observation criterion of agricultural meteorology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1993:136-141.(in Chinese)
[26]韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951-2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.Han C H,Hao Z X,Zheng J Y.Regionalization of temperature changes in China and characteristics of temperature in diffe rent regions during 1951-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):887-896.(in Chinese)
[27]武维华.植物生理学(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:444-445.Wu W H.Plant physiology(The second edition)[M].Beijing:China Science Press,2013:444-445.(in Chinese)
[28]Anderson J T,Inouye D W,Mc Kinney A M,et al.Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences,2012,279:3843-3852.
[29]Andrés F,Coupland G.The genetic basis of flowering responses to seasonal cues[J].Reviews,2012,2(81):1-13.
[30]Doffo M G,Monteoliva S,Rodríguez M E,et al.Physiological responses to alternative flooding and drought stress episodes in two willow(Salix spp.)clones[J].Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2017,42(2):1-31.
[31]Ballerini E S,Kramer E M.In the light of evolution:a reevaluation of conservation in the CO-FT regulon and its role in photoperiodic regulation of flowering time[J].Plant Science,2011,73:37-47.
[2]Chen X Q,Wang L X,David I.Delayed response of spring phenology to global warming insubtropics and tropics[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2017,234(235):222-235.
[3]陶泽兴,仲舒颖,葛全胜.1963-2012年中国主要木本植物花期长度时空变化[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):53-63.Tao Z X,Zhong S Y,Ge Q S,et al.Spatiotemporal variations in flowering duration of woody plants in China from 1963 to2012[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,72(1):53-63.(in Chinese)
[4]Chen X Q,Xu L.Penological responses of Ulmus pumila(Siberian Elm)to climate change in the temperate zone of China[J].Biometeorol,2012,56:695-706.
[5]Cleland E E,Chuine I,Menzel A,et al.Shifting plant phenology in response to global change[J].Elsevier,2007,22(7):357-365
[6]陈静茹.东北50种植物开花期对气候变化的响应[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2016.Chen J R.50 kinds of flowering plants response to climate changes in Northeast China[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2016.(in Chinese)
[7]徐琳,陈效逑,杜星.中国东部暖温带刺槐花期空间格局的模拟与预测[J].生态学报,2013,33(12):3584-3593.Xu L,Chen X Q,Du X.Simulation and prediction of spatial patterns of Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates in eastern China's warm temperate zone[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(12):3584-3593.(in Chinese)
[8]辛嘉楠,欧阳志云,郑华.城市中的花粉致敏植物及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2007,27(9):3820-3827.Xin J N,Ouyang Z Y,Zheng H,et al.Allergenic pollen plants and their influencing factors in urban area[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2007,27(9):3820-3827.(in Chinese)
[9]张明照.旱柳生殖生物学特性研究[D].北京:中国林业科学院,2014.Zhang M Z.The characteristics of reproductive biology of Salix matsudana Koidz[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Forestry,2014.(in Chinese)
[10]Gordo O,Sanz J S.Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems[J].Global Change Biology,2010,16(3):1082-1106.
[11]Forrest J,Miller-Rushing A J.Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society(B),2010,365:3101-3112.
[12]Badeck F B,Bondeau A,B?ttcher K,et al.Responses of spring phenology to climate change[J].New Phytologist,2004,162:295-309.
[13]Wolkovich E M,Cook B I,Davies T J.Progress towards an interdisciplinary science of plant phenology:building predictions across space,time and species diversity[J].New Phytologist,2013,201:1156-1162.
[14]Sparks T H,Jeffree E P,Jeffree C E.An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK[J].Biometeorol,2000,44(2):82-87.
[15]杨丽慧,吴滨,马佳嘉.福建省植物物候期对气候变化的响应[J].中国农学通,2016,32(35):139-150.Yang L H,Wu B,Ma J J.Response of plant phenophase to climate change in Fujian[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(35):139-150.(in Chinese)
[16]阿布都克日木·巴司,于艳.1986-2010年巴楚木本植物物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(3):63-68.Abudoukerimu B,Yu Y.Woody plants phonological variation characteristics and its responses to climate change during1986-2010 in Bachu county[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2015,9(3):63-68.(in Chinese)
[17]Matsumoto K,Ohta T,Irasawa M,et al.Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L.growing season in Japan[J].Global Change Biology,2003,9(11):1634-1642.
[18]陈效逑,庞程,徐琳.中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3625-3635.Chen X Q,Pang C,Xu L,et.al.Spatiotemporal response of Salix matsudana's phenophases to climate change in China's temperate zone[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(11):3625-3635.(in Chinese)
[19]史代敏,谢小燕.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011:3-5,14-15.Shi D M,Xie X Y.Applied time series analysis[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2011:3-5,14-15.(in Chinese)
[20]Her A M,Inouye D W.Schmidt N M,et al.Detrending phenological time series improves climate-phenology analyses and reveals evidence of plasticity[J].Ecology,2017,98(3):647-655.
[21]张家诚.中国气候总论[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:259-263.Zhang J C.A series of climate for China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1991:259-263.(in Chinese)
[22]Chen X Q,Xu L.Temperature controls on the spatial pattern of tree phenology in China’s temperate zone[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2012,154(155):195-202.
[23]中国森林编辑委员会.中国森林[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2000:1320-1322.China Forestry Committee.China forestry[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2000:1320-1322.(in Chinese)
[24]Hudson I L,Keatley M R.Phenological research:methods for environmental and climate change analysis[J].DordrechtHeidelberg-London-New York:Springer,2009:35-37.
[25]国家气象局.农业气象观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,1993:136-141.China Meteorological Administration.Observation criterion of agricultural meteorology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1993:136-141.(in Chinese)
[26]韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951-2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.Han C H,Hao Z X,Zheng J Y.Regionalization of temperature changes in China and characteristics of temperature in diffe rent regions during 1951-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):887-896.(in Chinese)
[27]武维华.植物生理学(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:444-445.Wu W H.Plant physiology(The second edition)[M].Beijing:China Science Press,2013:444-445.(in Chinese)
[28]Anderson J T,Inouye D W,Mc Kinney A M,et al.Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences,2012,279:3843-3852.
[29]Andrés F,Coupland G.The genetic basis of flowering responses to seasonal cues[J].Reviews,2012,2(81):1-13.
[30]Doffo M G,Monteoliva S,Rodríguez M E,et al.Physiological responses to alternative flooding and drought stress episodes in two willow(Salix spp.)clones[J].Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2017,42(2):1-31.
[31]Ballerini E S,Kramer E M.In the light of evolution:a reevaluation of conservation in the CO-FT regulon and its role in photoperiodic regulation of flowering time[J].Plant Science,2011,73:37-47.