人民币储备需求的驱动因素——基于“一带一路”倡议的实证检验
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摘要
自2009年我国推行人民币国际化战略以来,人民币的储备货币功能不断显现。本文使用面板Logit模型实证检验发现,"一带一路"倡议前,对中国倡导的国际秩序的偏好、双边货币互换协议的签订以及美元汇率贬值构成了境外央行或货币当局人民币储备需求的主要驱动因素;自我国2013年提出"一带一路"倡议以来,对中国海外直接投资流入的依赖成为人民币储备需求的主要驱动因素,同时,境外央行或货币当局的人民币储备需求也与其资本市场开放程度有关。此外,一国经济规模、对中国进口依存度及中国经济基本面等驱动因素也得到了实证数据的部分支持。中国应适应人民币储备需求驱动因素的转变,动态调整并优化人民币国际化战略。
Since China launched its strategy of RMB internationalization in 2009, the function of RMB as a reserve currency has been gradually improved. This paper empirically examines the driving factors of RMB reserve demand through the panel Logit model and finds that, prior to the"Belt and Road"initiative, the driving factors for the demand for RMB reserves by overseas central banks or monetary authorities are mainly due to preference for the alternative international order advocated by China, the signing of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement with the People's Bank of China and the depreciation of US Dollar. Since the launch of the"Belt and Road"Initiative, the driving force for RMB reserve demand has mainly been the dependence on China's overseas direct investment inflows as well as the openness of respective country's capital markets. In addition, factors such as import dependence, economic size together with China overall GDP size also constitute a part of the driving force for RMB reserve demand. Basing on this, the paper suggests that the government should optimize its strategy of RMB internationalization on a dynamic adjustment base.
Since China launched its strategy of RMB internationalization in 2009, the function of RMB as a reserve currency has been gradually improved. This paper empirically examines the driving factors of RMB reserve demand through the panel Logit model and finds that, prior to the"Belt and Road"initiative, the driving factors for the demand for RMB reserves by overseas central banks or monetary authorities are mainly due to preference for the alternative international order advocated by China, the signing of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement with the People's Bank of China and the depreciation of US Dollar. Since the launch of the"Belt and Road"Initiative, the driving force for RMB reserve demand has mainly been the dependence on China's overseas direct investment inflows as well as the openness of respective country's capital markets. In addition, factors such as import dependence, economic size together with China overall GDP size also constitute a part of the driving force for RMB reserve demand. Basing on this, the paper suggests that the government should optimize its strategy of RMB internationalization on a dynamic adjustment base.
引文
[1]陈创练,姚树洁,郑挺国,欧璟华.利率市场化、汇率改制与国际资本流动的关系研究[J].国际货币评论,2017(4):99
[2]韩乾,袁宇菲,吴博强.短期国际资本流动与我国上市企业融资成本[J].经济研究,2017(6):77-89
[3]李巍.伙伴、制度与国际货币---人民币崛起的国际政治基础[J].中国社会科学,2016(5):79-100+205-206
[4]陆磊,李宏瑾.纳入SDR后的人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革:基于货币功能和储备货币供求的视角[J].国际经济评论,2016(3):41-53+5
[5]Bailey M A,Strezhnev A,Voeten E.Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2017,61(2):430-456
[6]Batten J A,Szilagyi P G.The Internationalisation of the RMB:New Starts,Jumps and Tipping Points[J].Emerging Markets Review,2016,28:221-238
[7]Chen W.Lost in Internationalization:Rise of the Renminbi,Macroprudential Policy,and Global Impacts[J].Journal of International Economic Law,2018,21(1):31-66
[8]Chen Y,Hu B.Internationalization of the RMB:An Evaluation Framework[J].Economic and Political Studies,2013,96(1):5-20
[9]Cheung Y W,Yiu M S.Offshore Renminbi Trading:Findings from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey[J].International Economics,2017,152:9-20
[10]Chey H K.The International Politics of Reactive Currency Statecraft:Japan's Reaction to the Rise of the Chinese Renminbi[J].New Political Economy,2018,(Apr 17):1-20
[11]Chey H K.Theories of International Currencies and the Future of the World Monetary Order[J].International Studies Review,2012,14(1):51-77
[12]Chi掎u L,Eichengreen B,Mehl A.When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling as the Leading International Currency?Evidence from the Bond Markets[J].Journal of Development Economics,2014,111:225-245
[13]Chinn M D,Ito H.What Matters for Financial Development?Capital Controls,Institutions,and Interactions[J].Journal of Development Economics,2006,81(1):163-192
[14]Devereux M B,Shi S.Vehicle Currency[J].International Economic Review,2013,54(1):97-133
[15]Dobson W,Masson P R.Will the Renminbi Become a World Currency?[J].China Economic Review,2009,20(1):124-135
[16]Dreher A,Sturm J E,De Haan J.Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job?Evidence Based on a New Data Set[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2008,24(4):778-787
[17]Eichengreen B,Chi掎u L,Mehl A.Stability or Upheaval?The Currency Composition of International Reserves in the Long Run[J].IMF Economic Review,2016,64(2):354-380
[18]Eichengreen B,Kawai M.Issues for Renminbi Internationalization:An Overview[R].ADBI Working Paper,2014,No.454
[19]Eichengreen B,Mehl A J,Chitu L.Mars or Mercury?The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice[R].NBERWorking Paper,2017,No.w24145
[20]Eichengreen B.The Renminbi as an International Currency[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2011,33(5):723-730
[21]Frankel J.Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents[J].Journal of Economic Integration,2012,27(3):329-365
[22]Germain R,Schwartz H M.The Political Economy of Currency Internationalisation:the Case of the RMB[J].Review of International Studies,2017,43(4):765-787
[23]Gupta S K,Goyal A.Multiple Reserve Currencies and Renminbi Use[J].Journal of International Commerce,Economics and Policy,2017,8(2):1750011
[24]Helleiner E,Malkin A.Sectoral Interests and Global Money:Renminbi,Dollars and the Domestic Foundations of International Currency Policy[J].Open Economies Review,2012,23(1):33-55
[25]Hentov E,Hoguet G.After RMB Inclusion in the SDR:Why Does China Want the RMB to Be a Reserve Currency?[R].State Street Global Advisors,2015
[26]Ito T.A New Financial Order in Asia:Will a RMB Bloc Emerge?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2017,74:232-257
[27]Ito T.The Internationalization of the RMB:Opportunities and Pitfalls[J].International Economic Review,2012,2(2):129-132
[28]Kawai M,Pontines V.Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia:A Modified Frankel Wei Approach[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2016,62:72-97
[29]Liao S,McDowell D.No Reservations:International Order and Demand for the Renminbi as a Reserve Currency[J].International Studies Quarterly,2016,60(2):272-293
[30]Marshall M G,Jaggers K,Gurr T R.Polity IV Annual Time-Series,1800-2013[R].Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland College Park,http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html,2014
[31]McNally CA.The Political Economic Logic of RMB Internationalization:A Study in Sino-Capitalism[J].International Politics,2015,52(6):704-723
[32]Roubini N.The Almighty Renminbi[N].New York Times,2009,May 13
[33]Shih V,Steinberg D A.The Domestic Politics of the International Dollar Standard:A Statistical Analysis of Support for the Reserve Currency,2000-2008[J].Canadian Journal of Political Science,2012,45(4):855-880
[34]Spantig K.International Monetary Policy Spillovers-Can The RMB and The Euro Challenge the Hegemony of the US Dollar[J].Asia Europe Journal,2015,13(4):459-478
[35]Strange S.Sterling and British Policy:A Political Study of an International Currency in Decline[M].Oxford University Press,1971
[36]Zimmermann H.Money and Security:Troops,Monetary Policy,and West Germany's Relations with the United States and Britain,1950-1971[M].Cambridge University Press,2002
(1)数据来自于中国人民银行《2018年人民币国际化报告》。
(1)国际秩序即管理国家互动和行为的规则、原则和制度。
(1)篇幅所限,未报告有关变量的细节内容,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(2)篇幅所限,具体检验结果未予以列示,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)篇幅所限,未报告具体回归结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)篇幅所限,未列示模拟图,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(2)篇幅所限,未报告各稳健性检验的具体回归结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)“一带一路”倡议中的“一带”连接亚太地区与欧洲,上海合作组织中的中国、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等成员国、5个观察员国及3个对话伙伴都在丝绸之路上。
[2]韩乾,袁宇菲,吴博强.短期国际资本流动与我国上市企业融资成本[J].经济研究,2017(6):77-89
[3]李巍.伙伴、制度与国际货币---人民币崛起的国际政治基础[J].中国社会科学,2016(5):79-100+205-206
[4]陆磊,李宏瑾.纳入SDR后的人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革:基于货币功能和储备货币供求的视角[J].国际经济评论,2016(3):41-53+5
[5]Bailey M A,Strezhnev A,Voeten E.Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2017,61(2):430-456
[6]Batten J A,Szilagyi P G.The Internationalisation of the RMB:New Starts,Jumps and Tipping Points[J].Emerging Markets Review,2016,28:221-238
[7]Chen W.Lost in Internationalization:Rise of the Renminbi,Macroprudential Policy,and Global Impacts[J].Journal of International Economic Law,2018,21(1):31-66
[8]Chen Y,Hu B.Internationalization of the RMB:An Evaluation Framework[J].Economic and Political Studies,2013,96(1):5-20
[9]Cheung Y W,Yiu M S.Offshore Renminbi Trading:Findings from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey[J].International Economics,2017,152:9-20
[10]Chey H K.The International Politics of Reactive Currency Statecraft:Japan's Reaction to the Rise of the Chinese Renminbi[J].New Political Economy,2018,(Apr 17):1-20
[11]Chey H K.Theories of International Currencies and the Future of the World Monetary Order[J].International Studies Review,2012,14(1):51-77
[12]Chi掎u L,Eichengreen B,Mehl A.When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling as the Leading International Currency?Evidence from the Bond Markets[J].Journal of Development Economics,2014,111:225-245
[13]Chinn M D,Ito H.What Matters for Financial Development?Capital Controls,Institutions,and Interactions[J].Journal of Development Economics,2006,81(1):163-192
[14]Devereux M B,Shi S.Vehicle Currency[J].International Economic Review,2013,54(1):97-133
[15]Dobson W,Masson P R.Will the Renminbi Become a World Currency?[J].China Economic Review,2009,20(1):124-135
[16]Dreher A,Sturm J E,De Haan J.Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job?Evidence Based on a New Data Set[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2008,24(4):778-787
[17]Eichengreen B,Chi掎u L,Mehl A.Stability or Upheaval?The Currency Composition of International Reserves in the Long Run[J].IMF Economic Review,2016,64(2):354-380
[18]Eichengreen B,Kawai M.Issues for Renminbi Internationalization:An Overview[R].ADBI Working Paper,2014,No.454
[19]Eichengreen B,Mehl A J,Chitu L.Mars or Mercury?The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice[R].NBERWorking Paper,2017,No.w24145
[20]Eichengreen B.The Renminbi as an International Currency[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2011,33(5):723-730
[21]Frankel J.Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents[J].Journal of Economic Integration,2012,27(3):329-365
[22]Germain R,Schwartz H M.The Political Economy of Currency Internationalisation:the Case of the RMB[J].Review of International Studies,2017,43(4):765-787
[23]Gupta S K,Goyal A.Multiple Reserve Currencies and Renminbi Use[J].Journal of International Commerce,Economics and Policy,2017,8(2):1750011
[24]Helleiner E,Malkin A.Sectoral Interests and Global Money:Renminbi,Dollars and the Domestic Foundations of International Currency Policy[J].Open Economies Review,2012,23(1):33-55
[25]Hentov E,Hoguet G.After RMB Inclusion in the SDR:Why Does China Want the RMB to Be a Reserve Currency?[R].State Street Global Advisors,2015
[26]Ito T.A New Financial Order in Asia:Will a RMB Bloc Emerge?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2017,74:232-257
[27]Ito T.The Internationalization of the RMB:Opportunities and Pitfalls[J].International Economic Review,2012,2(2):129-132
[28]Kawai M,Pontines V.Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia:A Modified Frankel Wei Approach[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2016,62:72-97
[29]Liao S,McDowell D.No Reservations:International Order and Demand for the Renminbi as a Reserve Currency[J].International Studies Quarterly,2016,60(2):272-293
[30]Marshall M G,Jaggers K,Gurr T R.Polity IV Annual Time-Series,1800-2013[R].Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland College Park,http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html,2014
[31]McNally CA.The Political Economic Logic of RMB Internationalization:A Study in Sino-Capitalism[J].International Politics,2015,52(6):704-723
[32]Roubini N.The Almighty Renminbi[N].New York Times,2009,May 13
[33]Shih V,Steinberg D A.The Domestic Politics of the International Dollar Standard:A Statistical Analysis of Support for the Reserve Currency,2000-2008[J].Canadian Journal of Political Science,2012,45(4):855-880
[34]Spantig K.International Monetary Policy Spillovers-Can The RMB and The Euro Challenge the Hegemony of the US Dollar[J].Asia Europe Journal,2015,13(4):459-478
[35]Strange S.Sterling and British Policy:A Political Study of an International Currency in Decline[M].Oxford University Press,1971
[36]Zimmermann H.Money and Security:Troops,Monetary Policy,and West Germany's Relations with the United States and Britain,1950-1971[M].Cambridge University Press,2002
(1)数据来自于中国人民银行《2018年人民币国际化报告》。
(1)国际秩序即管理国家互动和行为的规则、原则和制度。
(1)篇幅所限,未报告有关变量的细节内容,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(2)篇幅所限,具体检验结果未予以列示,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)篇幅所限,未报告具体回归结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)篇幅所限,未列示模拟图,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(2)篇幅所限,未报告各稳健性检验的具体回归结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)“一带一路”倡议中的“一带”连接亚太地区与欧洲,上海合作组织中的中国、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等成员国、5个观察员国及3个对话伙伴都在丝绸之路上。