2018—2019年中国宏观经济报告——改革开放新征程中的中国宏观经济
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摘要
2018年注定是中国宏观经济值得高度关注的一年。世界经济结构的裂变、市场情绪的巨变、微观基础的变异、经济政策的叠加错配以及结构性体制性问题进一步集中暴露,改变了中国宏观经济2016年以来"稳中向好"的运行趋势。宏观经济核心指标在"稳中有变"中呈现"持续回缓"的态势,下行压力持续加大。这说明中国宏观经济既没有"触底企稳",也没有步入稳定复苏的"新周期",反而在内部"攻坚战"与外部"贸易战"的叠加中全面步入中国经济新常态的新阶段。2018年所面临的经济持续下滑的压力难以通过短期稳增长政策得到有效缓解,需要利用新一轮全方位改革开放和新一轮供给侧结构性改革来进行化解和对冲。内外部压力和问题的暴露决定了中国大改革的窗口期已经在2018年全面出现,2019年中国必定将踏上改革开放的新征程。
2018 is destined to be quite a year for China's macroeconomy.The steady recovery trend of China's macro-economy starting from 2016 has been reversed due to the fission of the world economic structure,dramatic changes in market sentiment,variations of the micro-foundation,superposition of mismatches in economic policies,and further concentrated exposure of structural institutional issues.The core indicators of the macroeconomy show a trend of"continued slow down "in"stable and changeable",and the downward pressure continued to increase.This shows that China's macroeconomy has neither"bottomed out and stabilized "nor entered the"new cycle" of stable recovery.Instead,it has stepped into a new stage of the new normal of China's economy in the superposition of internal"tough war "and external"trade war".The pressure of sustained economic downturn in 2018 is difficult to be effectively alleviated with the short-term policy.It is necessary to use a new round of comprehensive reforms and opening-up and a new round of supply-side structural reforms to resolve it and hedge it.The exposure of internal and external pressures and problems has determined that the window of China's major reforms has fully emerged since 2018.In 2019,China will surely embark on a new journey of reform and opening up.
2018 is destined to be quite a year for China's macroeconomy.The steady recovery trend of China's macro-economy starting from 2016 has been reversed due to the fission of the world economic structure,dramatic changes in market sentiment,variations of the micro-foundation,superposition of mismatches in economic policies,and further concentrated exposure of structural institutional issues.The core indicators of the macroeconomy show a trend of"continued slow down "in"stable and changeable",and the downward pressure continued to increase.This shows that China's macroeconomy has neither"bottomed out and stabilized "nor entered the"new cycle" of stable recovery.Instead,it has stepped into a new stage of the new normal of China's economy in the superposition of internal"tough war "and external"trade war".The pressure of sustained economic downturn in 2018 is difficult to be effectively alleviated with the short-term policy.It is necessary to use a new round of comprehensive reforms and opening-up and a new round of supply-side structural reforms to resolve it and hedge it.The exposure of internal and external pressures and problems has determined that the window of China's major reforms has fully emerged since 2018.In 2019,China will surely embark on a new journey of reform and opening up.
引文
丁守海、吴迪、张鹤,2018:《跨越中等收入陷阱迫需提升就业质量》,《教学与研究》第7期。
刘晓光、刘元春,2018:《杠杆率重估与债务风险再探讨》,《金融研究》第8期。
刘晓光、刘元春、王健,2018:《杠杆率、经济增长与衰退》,《中国社会科学》第6期。
中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测课题组,2018:《新常态迈向新阶段的中国宏观经济---2017-2018年中国宏观经济分析与预测》,《经济理论与经济管理》第2期。
刘晓光、刘元春,2018:《杠杆率重估与债务风险再探讨》,《金融研究》第8期。
刘晓光、刘元春、王健,2018:《杠杆率、经济增长与衰退》,《中国社会科学》第6期。
中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测课题组,2018:《新常态迈向新阶段的中国宏观经济---2017-2018年中国宏观经济分析与预测》,《经济理论与经济管理》第2期。