帝国继承国身份与俄罗斯外交
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摘要
苏联脱胎于沙皇俄国,俄罗斯则来源于"苏维埃帝国"。"帝国"继承国的特殊国家身份从两方面影响了俄罗斯外交:一方面,苏联给俄罗斯留下了丰厚遗产,也留给了俄罗斯比普通大国更多的外交"包袱",使其经常处于进退两难的境地;另一方面,苏联留下的丰厚遗产使西方不能忽视俄罗斯的影响与雄心,继续沿用看待苏联的眼光审视俄罗斯外交。分析俄罗斯外交,既要分析作为国际体系"单元"的俄罗斯自身特性,也要分析不同时代国际体系的性质和体系性质变化导致的俄罗斯与国际体系关系的变化,还要考察俄罗斯自身和外部世界对俄罗斯国家身份认知这一重要因素。国际体系的观念结构和物质结构体现出一种历史惯性的力量,对俄罗斯外交有很大制约。未来俄罗斯会对西方采取进攻性的防守姿态,争取有利条件下的妥协。俄罗斯外交的"双头鹰"战略未来会更加平衡。国际体系的观念结构和权力结构以及中俄彼此认知,决定了中俄战略伙伴关系的持久性和稳定性是可期的。
Just as the Soviet Union was the inheritor of Tsarist Russia, contemporary Russia has its roots in the "Soviet empire". Russia's particular identity as an "empire inheritor" impacts its diplomacy in two ways: on the one hand, the Soviet legacy both empowers and burdens Russian foreign policy, thus often leaving Moscow in dilemmas; on the other hand, Russia's influence and ambition invite cautious watch of Western observers, as they view Russia through the same lens they used to view the Soviet Union. To analyze Russian foreign policy, it no doubt requires identifying characteristics of Russia as a unit in the international system and also tracing the evolution of Russia's relationship with the international system, taking is as predominantly determined by thenature and evolution of international systems at different times. But more importantly, it is necessary to take into account Russia's self-identity and the perception of the outside world regarding Russia's international identity. The conceptional structure as well as material structure of the inter national system create a sort of historical inertia, which places limits on Russia's policy options. It is expected that Russia would adopt a strategy of proactive defense in the near future and seek accommodation if offered favorable terms. A more balanced "double-headed eagle" strategy would emerge. It is also argued that in light of the conceptional and power structure of current international system and mutual cognition of China and Russia, the strategic partnership between the two countries would be lasting and stable.
Just as the Soviet Union was the inheritor of Tsarist Russia, contemporary Russia has its roots in the "Soviet empire". Russia's particular identity as an "empire inheritor" impacts its diplomacy in two ways: on the one hand, the Soviet legacy both empowers and burdens Russian foreign policy, thus often leaving Moscow in dilemmas; on the other hand, Russia's influence and ambition invite cautious watch of Western observers, as they view Russia through the same lens they used to view the Soviet Union. To analyze Russian foreign policy, it no doubt requires identifying characteristics of Russia as a unit in the international system and also tracing the evolution of Russia's relationship with the international system, taking is as predominantly determined by thenature and evolution of international systems at different times. But more importantly, it is necessary to take into account Russia's self-identity and the perception of the outside world regarding Russia's international identity. The conceptional structure as well as material structure of the inter national system create a sort of historical inertia, which places limits on Russia's policy options. It is expected that Russia would adopt a strategy of proactive defense in the near future and seek accommodation if offered favorable terms. A more balanced "double-headed eagle" strategy would emerge. It is also argued that in light of the conceptional and power structure of current international system and mutual cognition of China and Russia, the strategic partnership between the two countries would be lasting and stable.
引文
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(2)[美]亚历山大·温特:《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海:上海人民出版社,2000年,第156页。
(3)刘军:“俄罗斯国家定位:从帝国到面向欧亚的民族国家”,《俄罗斯研究》,2006年第4期,第5-10页;[俄]安德烈·齐甘科夫:《国家关系中的荣誉:从亚历山大一世到普京的俄罗斯与西方关系》,关贵海译,上海:上海人民出版社,2017年。限于篇幅,关于俄罗斯外交的几类研究的文献只择要举例。
(1)Kenneth N.Waltz,Theory of International Politics,London:Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,1979.
(2)俞邃:“北约东扩以来的俄罗斯外交”,《国际问题研究》,1998年第7期,第1-5页;Jeffrey Mankoff,Russian Foreign Policy:the Return of Great Power Politics,New York:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2009;Vidya Nadkarni,Norrma C.Noonan(eds.),Emerging Powers in a Comparative Perspective:the Political and Economic Rise of the BRIC Countries,New York:Bloomsbury,2013.
(1)[英]安东尼·派格登:《西方帝国简史:迁移、探索和政府的三部曲》,徐鹏译,天津人民出版社,2009年,前言第13页。
(2)Sally N.Cummings,Raymond Hinnebusch(eds.),Sovereignty after Empire:Compare the Middle East and Asia,Edinburgh:Edinburgh University Press,2011,p.25.
(1)Dominic Lieven,Empire:the Russian Empire and Its Rivals,New Haven:Yale University Press.,2000,p.xi.
(2)Michael Hardt,Antonio Negri,Empire,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,2001,preface,p.xii.
(3)Michael W.Doyle,Empires,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1986,p.19.
(4)David A.Lake,Hierarchy in International Relations,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2009,pp.57-58.
(5)[俄]亚·伊·弗多文:《二十世纪的俄罗斯族人》,郑振东译,南京:南京大学出版社,2015年,第466页。
(1)[英]安东尼·派格登:《西方帝国简史:迁移、探索和政府的三部曲》,前言第13页。
(2)[美]弗拉季斯拉夫·祖博克:《失败的帝国:从斯大林到戈尔巴乔夫》,李晓江译,北京:社会科文献出版社,2014年。
(3)中国国际关系学会主编:《国际关系史第十二卷(1990-1999)》,北京:世界知识出版社,2006年,第39页。
(4)Robert Jervis,Perception and Misperception in International Politics,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2017,p.19.
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(1)[美]尼古拉·梁赞诺夫斯基、[美]马克·斯坦伯格:《俄罗斯史》,杨烨等译,上海:上海人民出版社,2013年,第208-221页。
(2)[俄]尼·雷日科夫:《大动荡的十年》,王攀译,北京:中央编译出版社,2006年,第69-70页。
(1)[英]安东尼·派格登:《西方帝国简史:迁移、探索和政府的三部曲》,前言第13页。
(2)[美]亨利·基辛格:《世界秩序》,胡利平译,北京:中信出版社,2015年,第52页。
(1)Zbigniew Brzezinski,The Grand Chessboard:American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives,New York:Basic Books,p.92.
(1)Mark Galeotti,The Modern Russian Army 1992-2016,Oxford:Osprey Publishing,2017,pp.34-36.
(2)Immanuel Wallerstein,The Capitalist World-Economy,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1979,p.97.
(3)George F.Kennan,American Diplomacy(sixtieth-anniversary expanded edition),Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,2012,p.138.
(1)Paul T.Christensen,“Russia as Semi-periphery:Political Economy,the State,and Society in the Contemporary World System”,in Neil Rober(ed.),The Political Economy of Russia,Plymouth:Roman&Littlefield Publishers,2013,pp.170-171.
(2)《普京文集(2000-2002)》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002年,第4页。
(1)《普京文集(2012-2014)》,北京:世界知识出版社,2014年,第26页。
(2)同上,第25页。
(3)[美]亚历山大·温特,《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海,上海人民出版社,2000年,第37-227页。
(1)[俄]安德烈·P·齐甘科夫:《国际关系中的荣誉:从亚历山大一世到普京时代的俄罗斯与西方关系》,关贵海译,上海:上海人民出版社,2017年,第261-265页。
(2)[俄]罗伊·麦德维杰夫:《普京:克里姆林宫四年时光》,王晓玉译,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005年,第14页。
(1)[美]尼古拉·梁赞诺夫斯基、[美]马克·斯坦伯格:《俄罗斯史》,杨烨等译,上海:上海人民出版社,2017年,第646页。
(2)Angela E.Stent,The Limits of Partnership:U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2014,p.8.
(3)[俄]伊·伊万诺夫:《俄罗斯新外交:对外政策十年》,陈凤翔等译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年,第97页。
(4)Andrei Kokoshin,“What is Russia:A Superpower,A Great Power or A Regional Power?”,International Affairs,No.6,2002,p.187.转引自相兰欣:“‘9.11’以后俄罗斯重振大国地位的努力”,《俄罗斯研究》,2003年第1期,第6页。
(5)R·萨科瓦:“世界秩序:俄罗斯的视角”,《俄罗斯研究》,2016年第2期,第47-48页。
(1)[俄]鲍里斯·叶利钦:《午夜日记--叶利钦自传》,曹缦西、张俊翔译,南京:译林出版社,2001年,第395页。
(2)转引自[俄]罗伊·麦德维杰夫:《普京--克里姆林宫四年时光》,第204页。
(3)[俄]鲍里斯·叶利钦:《午夜日记--叶利钦自传》,第396、399、400页。
(4)[俄]安德烈·P·齐甘科夫:《国际关系中的荣誉:从亚历山大一世到普京时代的俄罗斯与西方关系》,第265-266页。
(1)《普京文集(2012-2014)》,第117页。
(2)[英]安格斯·罗克斯伯勒:《强权与铁腕:普京传》,胡利平译,北京:中信出版社,2014年,第95页。
(1)《普京文集(2002-2008)》,第32页。
(2)Angela E.Stent,The Limits of Partnership:U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,p.8.
(3)[俄]米·季塔连科、[俄]弗·彼得罗夫斯基:《俄罗斯、中国与世界秩序》,粟瑞雪译,北京:人民出版社,2018年,第235-236页。
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(2)“Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation”,approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30,2016,p.17.
(1)Kari Roberts,“Understanding Putin:The Politics of Identity and Geopolitics in Russian Foreign Policy Discourse”,International Journal,2017,Vol.72,No.1,p.55.
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(3)Kenneth Boulding,“National Images and International Systems”,Journal of Conflict Resolution,1959,Vol.3,p.130,quoted in Robert Jervis,Perception and misperception in international Politics,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2017,p.75.
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(1)[美]罗伯特·帕斯特:《世纪之旅:七大国百年外交风云》,胡利平、杨韵琴译,上海:上海人民出版社,2001年,第156-157页。
(2)时殷弘:“法国大革命、拿破仑和国际政治的变更”,《欧洲研究》,2005年第6期,第11-12页。
(3)Henry A.Kissinger,A World Restored:Metternich,Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace,1812-1822,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1957,p.221.
(4)K.J.Holsti,“Governance without Governance:Polyarchy in Nineteen-Century European International Politics”,in James N.Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel(eds.),Govenance without Government:Order and Change in World Politics,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992,p.41.
(5)[美]罗伯特·帕斯特:《世纪之旅:七大国百年外交风云》,第161页。
(1)Hedley Bull,The Anarchical Society:A Study of Order in World Politics(Third edition),London:Palgrave,2002,pp.9-10.
(2)[俄]罗伊·麦德维杰夫:《普京:克里姆林宫四年时光》,第410页。
(3)Hedley Bull,The Anarchical Society…p.32.
(1)[俄]尼·雷日科夫:《大动荡的十年》,王攀译,北京:中央编译出版社,2006年,第441页。
(2)George C.Herring,From Colony to Superpower:U.S.Foreign Relations Since 1776,New York:Oxford University Press,2008,pp.595-596.
(1)Michael Hudson,Super Imperialism:the Origin and Fundamentals of U.S.World Dominance,New York:Pluto Press,2003.
(2)Martin Jacques,When China Rules the World:the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global order,New York:Penguin Press,2009,p.358.
(3)John T.Rourke,International Politics on the World Stage,New York:McGraw-Hill,2012,p.94.
(4)《普京文集(2012-2014)》,第8页。
(1)[俄]伊·伊万诺夫:《俄罗斯新外交》,陈凤翔等译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年,第12-13页。
(1)[美]约瑟夫·奈:《理解国际冲突》,张小明译,上海:上海人民出版社,2002年,第29页。
(2)Hans J.Morgenthau and Kenneth W.Thompson,Politics Among Nations:the Struggle for Power and Peace,New York:Alfred A.Knopf,Inc.,1985,pp.563-564.
(3)Paul Kennedy,The Rise and Fall of Great Powers:Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000,London:London:Unwin Hyman Limited,1988,p.xxiii.
(1)Vidya Nadkarni,Norrma C.Noonan eds,Emerging Powers in a Comparative Perspective:the Political and Economic Rise of the BRIC Countries,Bloomsbury,2013,pp.6-7.
(1)Anton Steen,Political Elites and New Russia:the Power Basis of Yeltsin and Putin’s Regimes,New York:Routledge Curzon,2003,p.167.
(2)“联合国报告称欧盟对俄制裁导致双方损失上千亿美元”,中国网,2017年9月14日,https://item.btime.com/37gdqc8gudk8h38f9ln5n0j4mhq
(1)《普京文集(2002-2008)》,第422-423页。
(2)Jeffrey Mankoff,Russian Foreign Policy:the Return of Great Power Politics,New York:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2009,pp.26-27.
(1)关于对接“丝绸之路经济带”与欧亚经济联盟中俄罗斯外交的意义,可参见雷建锋:“‘丝绸之路经济带’和欧亚经济联盟对接下的中俄关系”,《当代世界与社会主义》,2017年第4期,第146-153页。
(1)《普京文集》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002年,第250页。
(2)同上,第6页。
(1)[俄]伊·伊万诺夫:《俄罗斯新外交》,陈凤翔译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年,第26页。
(2)[美]亚历山大·温特:《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海:上海人民出版社,2000年,第156页。
(3)刘军:“俄罗斯国家定位:从帝国到面向欧亚的民族国家”,《俄罗斯研究》,2006年第4期,第5-10页;[俄]安德烈·齐甘科夫:《国家关系中的荣誉:从亚历山大一世到普京的俄罗斯与西方关系》,关贵海译,上海:上海人民出版社,2017年。限于篇幅,关于俄罗斯外交的几类研究的文献只择要举例。
(1)Kenneth N.Waltz,Theory of International Politics,London:Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,1979.
(2)俞邃:“北约东扩以来的俄罗斯外交”,《国际问题研究》,1998年第7期,第1-5页;Jeffrey Mankoff,Russian Foreign Policy:the Return of Great Power Politics,New York:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2009;Vidya Nadkarni,Norrma C.Noonan(eds.),Emerging Powers in a Comparative Perspective:the Political and Economic Rise of the BRIC Countries,New York:Bloomsbury,2013.
(1)[英]安东尼·派格登:《西方帝国简史:迁移、探索和政府的三部曲》,徐鹏译,天津人民出版社,2009年,前言第13页。
(2)Sally N.Cummings,Raymond Hinnebusch(eds.),Sovereignty after Empire:Compare the Middle East and Asia,Edinburgh:Edinburgh University Press,2011,p.25.
(1)Dominic Lieven,Empire:the Russian Empire and Its Rivals,New Haven:Yale University Press.,2000,p.xi.
(2)Michael Hardt,Antonio Negri,Empire,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,2001,preface,p.xii.
(3)Michael W.Doyle,Empires,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1986,p.19.
(4)David A.Lake,Hierarchy in International Relations,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2009,pp.57-58.
(5)[俄]亚·伊·弗多文:《二十世纪的俄罗斯族人》,郑振东译,南京:南京大学出版社,2015年,第466页。
(1)[英]安东尼·派格登:《西方帝国简史:迁移、探索和政府的三部曲》,前言第13页。
(2)[美]弗拉季斯拉夫·祖博克:《失败的帝国:从斯大林到戈尔巴乔夫》,李晓江译,北京:社会科文献出版社,2014年。
(3)中国国际关系学会主编:《国际关系史第十二卷(1990-1999)》,北京:世界知识出版社,2006年,第39页。
(4)Robert Jervis,Perception and Misperception in International Politics,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2017,p.19.
(5)Kuniko Ashizawa,“When Identity Matters:State Identity,Regional Institution-Building,and Japanese Foreign Policy”,International Studies Review,2008,Vol.10,No.3,p.575.
(6)[美]亚历山大·温特:《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海:上海人民出版社,2000年,第289-290页。
(1)[美]尼古拉·梁赞诺夫斯基、[美]马克·斯坦伯格:《俄罗斯史》,杨烨等译,上海:上海人民出版社,2013年,第208-221页。
(2)[俄]尼·雷日科夫:《大动荡的十年》,王攀译,北京:中央编译出版社,2006年,第69-70页。
(1)[英]安东尼·派格登:《西方帝国简史:迁移、探索和政府的三部曲》,前言第13页。
(2)[美]亨利·基辛格:《世界秩序》,胡利平译,北京:中信出版社,2015年,第52页。
(1)Zbigniew Brzezinski,The Grand Chessboard:American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives,New York:Basic Books,p.92.
(1)Mark Galeotti,The Modern Russian Army 1992-2016,Oxford:Osprey Publishing,2017,pp.34-36.
(2)Immanuel Wallerstein,The Capitalist World-Economy,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1979,p.97.
(3)George F.Kennan,American Diplomacy(sixtieth-anniversary expanded edition),Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,2012,p.138.
(1)Paul T.Christensen,“Russia as Semi-periphery:Political Economy,the State,and Society in the Contemporary World System”,in Neil Rober(ed.),The Political Economy of Russia,Plymouth:Roman&Littlefield Publishers,2013,pp.170-171.
(2)《普京文集(2000-2002)》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002年,第4页。
(1)《普京文集(2012-2014)》,北京:世界知识出版社,2014年,第26页。
(2)同上,第25页。
(3)[美]亚历山大·温特,《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海,上海人民出版社,2000年,第37-227页。
(1)[俄]安德烈·P·齐甘科夫:《国际关系中的荣誉:从亚历山大一世到普京时代的俄罗斯与西方关系》,关贵海译,上海:上海人民出版社,2017年,第261-265页。
(2)[俄]罗伊·麦德维杰夫:《普京:克里姆林宫四年时光》,王晓玉译,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005年,第14页。
(1)[美]尼古拉·梁赞诺夫斯基、[美]马克·斯坦伯格:《俄罗斯史》,杨烨等译,上海:上海人民出版社,2017年,第646页。
(2)Angela E.Stent,The Limits of Partnership:U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2014,p.8.
(3)[俄]伊·伊万诺夫:《俄罗斯新外交:对外政策十年》,陈凤翔等译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年,第97页。
(4)Andrei Kokoshin,“What is Russia:A Superpower,A Great Power or A Regional Power?”,International Affairs,No.6,2002,p.187.转引自相兰欣:“‘9.11’以后俄罗斯重振大国地位的努力”,《俄罗斯研究》,2003年第1期,第6页。
(5)R·萨科瓦:“世界秩序:俄罗斯的视角”,《俄罗斯研究》,2016年第2期,第47-48页。
(1)[俄]鲍里斯·叶利钦:《午夜日记--叶利钦自传》,曹缦西、张俊翔译,南京:译林出版社,2001年,第395页。
(2)转引自[俄]罗伊·麦德维杰夫:《普京--克里姆林宫四年时光》,第204页。
(3)[俄]鲍里斯·叶利钦:《午夜日记--叶利钦自传》,第396、399、400页。
(4)[俄]安德烈·P·齐甘科夫:《国际关系中的荣誉:从亚历山大一世到普京时代的俄罗斯与西方关系》,第265-266页。
(1)《普京文集(2012-2014)》,第117页。
(2)[英]安格斯·罗克斯伯勒:《强权与铁腕:普京传》,胡利平译,北京:中信出版社,2014年,第95页。
(1)《普京文集(2002-2008)》,第32页。
(2)Angela E.Stent,The Limits of Partnership:U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,p.8.
(3)[俄]米·季塔连科、[俄]弗·彼得罗夫斯基:《俄罗斯、中国与世界秩序》,粟瑞雪译,北京:人民出版社,2018年,第235-236页。
(1)Zbigniew Brzezinski,The Grand Chessboard:American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives,New York:Basic Books,1997,p.92.
(2)“Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation”,approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30,2016,p.17.
(1)Kari Roberts,“Understanding Putin:The Politics of Identity and Geopolitics in Russian Foreign Policy Discourse”,International Journal,2017,Vol.72,No.1,p.55.
(2)Hans J.Morgenthau and Kenneth W.Thompson,Politics Among Nations:the Struggle for Power and Peace,New York:Alfred A.Knopf,Inc.,1985,p.82.
(3)Kenneth Boulding,“National Images and International Systems”,Journal of Conflict Resolution,1959,Vol.3,p.130,quoted in Robert Jervis,Perception and misperception in international Politics,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2017,p.75.
(1)Kenneth N.Waltz,Theory of International Politics,London:Addison-Wesley Publishing Company,1979,p.134.
(2)Simon Sebag Montefiore,Titans of History:the Giants Who Made Our World,New York:Vintage Books,2012,p.269.
(1)[美]罗伯特·帕斯特:《世纪之旅:七大国百年外交风云》,胡利平、杨韵琴译,上海:上海人民出版社,2001年,第156-157页。
(2)时殷弘:“法国大革命、拿破仑和国际政治的变更”,《欧洲研究》,2005年第6期,第11-12页。
(3)Henry A.Kissinger,A World Restored:Metternich,Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace,1812-1822,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1957,p.221.
(4)K.J.Holsti,“Governance without Governance:Polyarchy in Nineteen-Century European International Politics”,in James N.Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel(eds.),Govenance without Government:Order and Change in World Politics,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992,p.41.
(5)[美]罗伯特·帕斯特:《世纪之旅:七大国百年外交风云》,第161页。
(1)Hedley Bull,The Anarchical Society:A Study of Order in World Politics(Third edition),London:Palgrave,2002,pp.9-10.
(2)[俄]罗伊·麦德维杰夫:《普京:克里姆林宫四年时光》,第410页。
(3)Hedley Bull,The Anarchical Society…p.32.
(1)[俄]尼·雷日科夫:《大动荡的十年》,王攀译,北京:中央编译出版社,2006年,第441页。
(2)George C.Herring,From Colony to Superpower:U.S.Foreign Relations Since 1776,New York:Oxford University Press,2008,pp.595-596.
(1)Michael Hudson,Super Imperialism:the Origin and Fundamentals of U.S.World Dominance,New York:Pluto Press,2003.
(2)Martin Jacques,When China Rules the World:the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global order,New York:Penguin Press,2009,p.358.
(3)John T.Rourke,International Politics on the World Stage,New York:McGraw-Hill,2012,p.94.
(4)《普京文集(2012-2014)》,第8页。
(1)[俄]伊·伊万诺夫:《俄罗斯新外交》,陈凤翔等译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年,第12-13页。
(1)[美]约瑟夫·奈:《理解国际冲突》,张小明译,上海:上海人民出版社,2002年,第29页。
(2)Hans J.Morgenthau and Kenneth W.Thompson,Politics Among Nations:the Struggle for Power and Peace,New York:Alfred A.Knopf,Inc.,1985,pp.563-564.
(3)Paul Kennedy,The Rise and Fall of Great Powers:Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000,London:London:Unwin Hyman Limited,1988,p.xxiii.
(1)Vidya Nadkarni,Norrma C.Noonan eds,Emerging Powers in a Comparative Perspective:the Political and Economic Rise of the BRIC Countries,Bloomsbury,2013,pp.6-7.
(1)Anton Steen,Political Elites and New Russia:the Power Basis of Yeltsin and Putin’s Regimes,New York:Routledge Curzon,2003,p.167.
(2)“联合国报告称欧盟对俄制裁导致双方损失上千亿美元”,中国网,2017年9月14日,https://item.btime.com/37gdqc8gudk8h38f9ln5n0j4mhq
(1)《普京文集(2002-2008)》,第422-423页。
(2)Jeffrey Mankoff,Russian Foreign Policy:the Return of Great Power Politics,New York:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2009,pp.26-27.
(1)关于对接“丝绸之路经济带”与欧亚经济联盟中俄罗斯外交的意义,可参见雷建锋:“‘丝绸之路经济带’和欧亚经济联盟对接下的中俄关系”,《当代世界与社会主义》,2017年第4期,第146-153页。
(1)《普京文集》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002年,第250页。
(2)同上,第6页。
(1)[俄]伊·伊万诺夫:《俄罗斯新外交》,陈凤翔译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年,第26页。