中国OFDI的Linder假说:基于二元边际的视角
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摘要
文章利用2007～2015年中国对166个国家和地区的投资数据,从需求偏好和收入差异的角度来考察中国OFDI区位分布的规律性。为了克服样本选择偏差,文章采用了两阶段引力模型进行估计,并从二元边际的视角考察了收入差异对中国OFDI区位选择的影响。研究结果表明,无论是从OFDI的集约边际还是广延边际看,中国OFDI都偏好于与本国收入水平相似的东道国,且投资规模也相对更大,这说明中国OFDI区位选择规律符合Linder假说。
Most of China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) are widely distributed in developing countries.Does it imply that China's OFDI distribution pattern obey Linder Hypothesis? From the aspects of preference and income difference,the paper examines a Linder Hypothesis for China's OFDI distribution pattern using China's investment in 166 host countries and areas from2007 to 2015.In order to overcome sample selection and endogeneity problems,we use the two-stage gravity model to analyze the influence of income difference on China's OFDI distribution pattern and conduct this analysis for both the intensive margin and the extensive margin separately.The results indicat that Chinese enterprises preferred to invest in host countries which having per capita income similar with China and the investment scale in these countries were also larger both from the intensive margin and from the extensive margin.It implies that Linder Hypothesis was also applicable to China's OFDI distribution pattern.
Most of China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) are widely distributed in developing countries.Does it imply that China's OFDI distribution pattern obey Linder Hypothesis? From the aspects of preference and income difference,the paper examines a Linder Hypothesis for China's OFDI distribution pattern using China's investment in 166 host countries and areas from2007 to 2015.In order to overcome sample selection and endogeneity problems,we use the two-stage gravity model to analyze the influence of income difference on China's OFDI distribution pattern and conduct this analysis for both the intensive margin and the extensive margin separately.The results indicat that Chinese enterprises preferred to invest in host countries which having per capita income similar with China and the investment scale in these countries were also larger both from the intensive margin and from the extensive margin.It implies that Linder Hypothesis was also applicable to China's OFDI distribution pattern.
引文
[1]Aw,B.Y.,Lee,Y..A model of demand,productivity and foreign location decision among Taiwanese firms[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(2):304-316.
[2]Bénassy Quéré,A.,Coupet,M.,Mayer,T..Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment[J].The World Economy,2007,30(5):764-782.
[3]Blonigen,B.A..A review of empirical literature on FDI determinants[J].Atlantic Economic Journal,2005,33(4).383-403.
[4]Brainard,S.L..An empirical assessment of the proximity-concentration tradeoff between multinational sales and trade[J].American Economic Review,1997,87:520-544.
[5]Buckley,P.J.,Clegg,L.J.,Cross,A.R.,Liu,X.,Voss,H.,Zhang,P..The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2007,38:499-518.
[6]Cheung,Y.W.,Qian,X..Empirics of China's outward direct investment[J].Pacific Economic Review,2009,14(3):312-341.
[7]Dunning J.H..Explaining the international direct investment position of countries:towards a dynamic or developmental approach[J].Review of World Economics.1981,117(1):30-64.
[8]Fajgelbaum,P.,Grossman,G.M.,Helpman,E..Income distribution,product quality,and international trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2011,118:721-765.
[9]Fajgelbaum,P.,Grossman,G.M.,Helpman,E..A Linder Hypothesis for Foreign Direct Investment[J].Review of Economic Studies.2015,82:83-121.
[10]Flach,L..Quality upgrading and price heterogeneity:evidence from Brazilian exporters[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,102:282-290.
[11]Hallak,J.C..A product-quality view of the Linder Hypothesis.Review of Economics and Statistics[J],2010,92:453-466.
[12]Heckman,J.J..Sample selection bias as a specification error[J].Econometrica,1979,47(1):153-161.
[13]Helpman,E..A Simple Theory of Trade with Multinational Corporations[J].Journal of Political Economy,1984,92:451-471.
[14]Helpman,E.,Melitz,M.J.,Yeaple,S.R..Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[15]Helpman,E.,Melitz,M.J.,Rubinstein,Y..Estimating trade flows:trading partners and trading volumes[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(2):440-487.
[16]Kolstad,I.,Wiig,A..What determines Chinese Outward FDI?[J].Journal of World Business.2012,47(1):26-34.
[17]Markusen,J.R.,Venables,A.J..The theory of endowment,intra-industry,and multinational trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2000,52:209-234.
[18]Yeaple,R.S..The Multinational Firm[J].Annual Review of Economics,2013,5(1):193-217.
[19]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国对发展中国家的投资---东道国制度重要吗[J].管理世界,2012(11):45-56.
[20]刘晓光,杨连星.双边政治关系、东道国制度环境与对外直接投资[J].金融研究,2016(12):17-31.
[21]岳咬兴,范涛.制度环境与中国对亚洲直接投资区位分布[J].财贸经济,2014(6):69-78.
[22]杨娇辉,王伟,谭娜.破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜[J].世界经济,2016(11):3-27.
[23]宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究,2012(5):71-82.
(1)《中国对外直接投资统计公报》和《境外投资企业(机构)名录》数据存在差异,后者中的数据显示内地在香港地区设立的企业已达到1.3万家,高于前者的9300家。
(1)在中国早期的OFDI企业中,资源寻求型企业占了大部分,虽然近些年比例有所下降,但其单位投资规模依然高于制造业、服务业等行业中的企业投资规模。因此,东道国资源禀赋程度也是影响中国OFDI的一个重要因素。
[2]Bénassy Quéré,A.,Coupet,M.,Mayer,T..Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment[J].The World Economy,2007,30(5):764-782.
[3]Blonigen,B.A..A review of empirical literature on FDI determinants[J].Atlantic Economic Journal,2005,33(4).383-403.
[4]Brainard,S.L..An empirical assessment of the proximity-concentration tradeoff between multinational sales and trade[J].American Economic Review,1997,87:520-544.
[5]Buckley,P.J.,Clegg,L.J.,Cross,A.R.,Liu,X.,Voss,H.,Zhang,P..The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2007,38:499-518.
[6]Cheung,Y.W.,Qian,X..Empirics of China's outward direct investment[J].Pacific Economic Review,2009,14(3):312-341.
[7]Dunning J.H..Explaining the international direct investment position of countries:towards a dynamic or developmental approach[J].Review of World Economics.1981,117(1):30-64.
[8]Fajgelbaum,P.,Grossman,G.M.,Helpman,E..Income distribution,product quality,and international trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2011,118:721-765.
[9]Fajgelbaum,P.,Grossman,G.M.,Helpman,E..A Linder Hypothesis for Foreign Direct Investment[J].Review of Economic Studies.2015,82:83-121.
[10]Flach,L..Quality upgrading and price heterogeneity:evidence from Brazilian exporters[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,102:282-290.
[11]Hallak,J.C..A product-quality view of the Linder Hypothesis.Review of Economics and Statistics[J],2010,92:453-466.
[12]Heckman,J.J..Sample selection bias as a specification error[J].Econometrica,1979,47(1):153-161.
[13]Helpman,E..A Simple Theory of Trade with Multinational Corporations[J].Journal of Political Economy,1984,92:451-471.
[14]Helpman,E.,Melitz,M.J.,Yeaple,S.R..Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[15]Helpman,E.,Melitz,M.J.,Rubinstein,Y..Estimating trade flows:trading partners and trading volumes[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(2):440-487.
[16]Kolstad,I.,Wiig,A..What determines Chinese Outward FDI?[J].Journal of World Business.2012,47(1):26-34.
[17]Markusen,J.R.,Venables,A.J..The theory of endowment,intra-industry,and multinational trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2000,52:209-234.
[18]Yeaple,R.S..The Multinational Firm[J].Annual Review of Economics,2013,5(1):193-217.
[19]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国对发展中国家的投资---东道国制度重要吗[J].管理世界,2012(11):45-56.
[20]刘晓光,杨连星.双边政治关系、东道国制度环境与对外直接投资[J].金融研究,2016(12):17-31.
[21]岳咬兴,范涛.制度环境与中国对亚洲直接投资区位分布[J].财贸经济,2014(6):69-78.
[22]杨娇辉,王伟,谭娜.破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜[J].世界经济,2016(11):3-27.
[23]宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究,2012(5):71-82.
(1)《中国对外直接投资统计公报》和《境外投资企业(机构)名录》数据存在差异,后者中的数据显示内地在香港地区设立的企业已达到1.3万家,高于前者的9300家。
(1)在中国早期的OFDI企业中,资源寻求型企业占了大部分,虽然近些年比例有所下降,但其单位投资规模依然高于制造业、服务业等行业中的企业投资规模。因此,东道国资源禀赋程度也是影响中国OFDI的一个重要因素。