宜昌中小洪水及致洪降雨特征分析
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摘要
普查1981—2012年宜昌站中小洪水个例,统计发现宜昌站中小洪水20世纪80年代偏多,90年代明显偏少,2000年以后有所增加,洪水出现时间呈现最早洪水时间逐渐提前而最晚洪水时间则逐渐推迟趋势;长江上游及分流域致洪面雨量呈现同样的周期性变换规律,长江上游中小洪水6—9月占97%,且各月面雨量特点不同,6月自西向东"阶梯"增加,7月分布较均匀,8月和9月面雨量分布则差异较大;长江上游致洪面雨量流域间差异小,但洪水过程强降雨分布及组合方式较复杂,掌握长江上游致洪面雨量分布特征可为三峡水库中小洪水调度提供科学依据。
In this article, we census the light and medium flood events in Yichang for 1981-2012, and found that the flood events presented a regular changes: excessive in 1980 s, decreased in 1990 s and increased in 2000 s. The earliest flood case become earlier and earlier, but the last one become latter and latter. The rainfall of floods in the flooding areas appeared as same periodic variation. The floods account to 97% in June to September, in which the flood events, increased from west to east in June, uniform-distributed in July, and obviously different in August and September. The rainfall of floods in the flooding area occurred slightly differences, while the distribution and of heavy rainfall was more complex. Mastering the distribution characteristics of flood rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River may provide a scientific basis for the dispatch of small and medium flood in the Three Gorges Reservoir.
In this article, we census the light and medium flood events in Yichang for 1981-2012, and found that the flood events presented a regular changes: excessive in 1980 s, decreased in 1990 s and increased in 2000 s. The earliest flood case become earlier and earlier, but the last one become latter and latter. The rainfall of floods in the flooding areas appeared as same periodic variation. The floods account to 97% in June to September, in which the flood events, increased from west to east in June, uniform-distributed in July, and obviously different in August and September. The rainfall of floods in the flooding area occurred slightly differences, while the distribution and of heavy rainfall was more complex. Mastering the distribution characteristics of flood rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River may provide a scientific basis for the dispatch of small and medium flood in the Three Gorges Reservoir.
引文
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[3]陈桂亚,郭生练.水库汛期中小洪水动态调度方法与实践.水利发电学报,2012,31(4):22-27.
[4]袁瑞英.长江上游千余年来特大洪水的初步探讨.四川大学学报:工程科学版,2001,33(6):22-25.
[5]张世民,王小凤,等.长江上游寸滩站2010年“7.19”洪水预报分析.人民长江,2011,42(6):25-30.
[6]肖中,赵东,曹磊.长江上游“10.7”洪水及寸滩站水位流量关系分析.人民长江,2010,41(21):39-41.
[7]陈金荣,曾德聪.1981年7月长江上游特大暴雨洪水预报.长江志季刊,2000,(3):437-440.
[8]何明琼,熊传辉,尤利民.清江流域、长江上游面雨量与致洪关系分析.四川气象,2000,20(3):49-53.
[9]许武成,王腊春.长江干流洪峰等级和洪量等级的划分探讨.山东农业大学学报:自然科学版,2008,39(2):278-282.
[10]王仁乔,李才媛,王丽,等.六大流域强降水面雨量气候特征分析.气象,2003,29(7):38-42.
[11]李才媛,王仁乔,王丽,等.长江上游流域短期强降水面雨量预报系统.气象,2003,29(3):34-37.
[12]徐晶,林建,姚学祥,等.七大江河流域面雨量计算方法及应用.气象,2001,27(11):13-16.
[13]熊秋芬,何志学.三峡区间面雨量预报方法及其试验效果.气象,2000,26(11):19-23.
[14]Magri M H,Solari A.The SCI journal citation reports:apotential tool for studying journals.Scientometrics,1996,35:93-117.
[15]王远飞,何洪林.空间数据分析方法.北京:科学出版社,2007:34-39.
[16]朱兵.箱线图及其在JCR网络版中的应用.农业图书情报学刊,2011,23(8):15-18.