人口政策变动下曲靖市人口发展趋势分析
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摘要
人口生育政策变化会对区域未来人口发展产生直接影响,"全面二孩"政策是继"单独二孩"政策之后逐步放宽生育政策的又一重大举措。结合政策变动,筛选政策受众人群进行精准化预测:未来15年,曲靖市20～39岁育龄妇女将净减少3.7万人,其中符合"全面二孩"生育政策且在20～39岁育龄妇女人口规模将缩减近0.7万;结合"全面二孩"政策最终兑现人口的测算,从2016年至2020年间会产生一个"二孩"生育高峰期,过了高峰期之后将渐落并减少至2.23万,较高峰期缩减0.82万人。"全面二孩"政策进一步调整和完善了生育政策,但后期效果不明显,面对"后人口转变"时代的到来,低生育率、老龄化的人口发展新格局,要实现人口与社会经济的协调发展,仍需与时俱进做出人口政策相应调整。
The change of population fertility policy directly affect the future development of the population in the region.The "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy is another major measure to gradually relax the birth policy following the "Separate Two-Child" policy.Combining policy changes and screening policies,audiences will make precise predictions:In the next 15 years,20-30 year-old women of childbearing age in Qujing City will have a net reduction of 37,000 people,Which is in line with the "Comprehensive Two-Child" fertility policy and the population of women of childbearing age between 20 and 39 will be reduced by nearly 0.7 million.;In combination with the "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy,the final population will be calculated.From 2016 to 2020,there will be a "two-child" birth peak.After the peak period,it will gradually fall to 2.23 million,and the peak period will be reduced by 0.82 million.people.The "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy has further adjusted and improved the birth policy,but the effect is not obvious in the later period.In the face of the "post-population change" era,the new pattern of population development with low fertility and aging is to achieve population and social economy.Coordinated development,we still need to keep pace with the times and make corresponding adjustments to the population policy.
The change of population fertility policy directly affect the future development of the population in the region.The "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy is another major measure to gradually relax the birth policy following the "Separate Two-Child" policy.Combining policy changes and screening policies,audiences will make precise predictions:In the next 15 years,20-30 year-old women of childbearing age in Qujing City will have a net reduction of 37,000 people,Which is in line with the "Comprehensive Two-Child" fertility policy and the population of women of childbearing age between 20 and 39 will be reduced by nearly 0.7 million.;In combination with the "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy,the final population will be calculated.From 2016 to 2020,there will be a "two-child" birth peak.After the peak period,it will gradually fall to 2.23 million,and the peak period will be reduced by 0.82 million.people.The "Comprehensive Two-Child" policy has further adjusted and improved the birth policy,but the effect is not obvious in the later period.In the face of the "post-population change" era,the new pattern of population development with low fertility and aging is to achieve population and social economy.Coordinated development,we still need to keep pace with the times and make corresponding adjustments to the population policy.
引文
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[2]易富贤.从单独二孩实践看生育意愿和人口政策[J].中国发展观察,2014(12):58-74.
[3]张莹莹.全面二孩政策对中国生育水平的影响——基于多项Logit模型的探讨[J].西北人口,2018,39(3):34-43.
[4]王广州.“单独”育龄妇女总量、结构及变动趋势研究[J].中国人口科学,2012,32(3):9-18;111.
[5]罗淳,许庆红,戴琼瑶.“单独二孩”政策实施与云南人口发展预期研究[J].中国人口科学,2014,34(3):30-42;126.
[6]田立法,荣唐华,张馨月,等.“全面二孩”政策下农村居民二胎生育意愿影响因素研究——以天津为例[J].人口与发展,2017,23(4):104-112.
[7]茅倬彦.符合二胎政策妇女的生育意愿和生育行为差异——基于计划行为理论的实证研究[J].人口研究,2013,37(1):84-93.
[8]张晓青,黄彩虹等.“单独二孩”与“全面二孩”政策家庭生育意愿比较及启示[J].人口研究,2016,40(1):87-97.
[9]石智雷,杨云彦.符合“单独二孩”政策家庭的生育意愿与生育行为[J].人口研究,2014,38(5):27-40.
[10]杨舸.“全面二孩”后的人口预期与政策展望[J].北京工业大学学报:社会科学版,2016,16(4):25-33.