冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际型态及其与大气环流的关系
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摘要
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,运用31点带通数字滤波、线性相关和合成分析方法,研究了1961/1962—2010/2011年冬季北太平洋风暴轴西部、东部区域强度指数的年际演变特征,划分了风暴轴的典型型态,并进一步探讨了与同期北半球500 hPa位势高度场和SLP的关系。结果表明:风暴轴气候态的极大值区域位于中纬度北太平洋中西部,最大值点的频数集中区域和均方差分布的异常中心都有两个。风暴轴西部和东部区域强度指数(WI和EI)的年际演变具有独立性,典型型态可分为单、双中心型两类。WI(EI)指数与北半球500 hPa位势高度场的相关分布类似于WP(PNA)遥相关型;单中心型风暴轴偏强时,极涡南扩,平均槽加深;呈双中心型时,极涡明显偏西。WI(EI)指数与SLP的相关分布类似于NPO(NAO)遥相关型;单中心型风暴轴偏强(弱)时,SLP距平场呈AO遥相关型的正(负)异常位相。
Based on the NCEP /NCAR reanalysis data,using the methods of 31-point band-pass digital filter,linear correlation and composite analysis,this paper studies interannual variations of the western and eastern intensity index( WI and EI) of North Pacific storm track in winter from 1961 /1962 to 2010 /2011, defines interannual typical patterns of the storm track,and further discusses their relationships with 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure( SLP) fields over Northern Hemisphere. Results show that:( 1) Winter North Pacific storm track is characterized by a single maximum region in the climatological mean and two maximum regions of both mean square error distribution and climatological frequency concentration areas of maximum point at each year.( 2) Interannual variations of WI and EI are partially independent,and winter North Pacific storm track can be further defined as two typical patterns( single-center pattern and double-center pattern).( 3) The correlation distribution of WI( EI) with 500 hPa geopotential height field is analogous to WP( PNA) teleconnection pattern. When the single-center pattern storm track is strong,the polar vortex expands southward and the three average troughs deepen. When the double-center pattern storm track exists,the polar vortex is significantly westward.( 4) The correlation distribution of WI( EI) with SLP field is analogous to NPO( NAO) teleconnection pattern. When the single-centerpattern storm track is strong( week),SLP anomaly field presents a positive( negative) phase of AO teleconnection pattern.
Based on the NCEP /NCAR reanalysis data,using the methods of 31-point band-pass digital filter,linear correlation and composite analysis,this paper studies interannual variations of the western and eastern intensity index( WI and EI) of North Pacific storm track in winter from 1961 /1962 to 2010 /2011, defines interannual typical patterns of the storm track,and further discusses their relationships with 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure( SLP) fields over Northern Hemisphere. Results show that:( 1) Winter North Pacific storm track is characterized by a single maximum region in the climatological mean and two maximum regions of both mean square error distribution and climatological frequency concentration areas of maximum point at each year.( 2) Interannual variations of WI and EI are partially independent,and winter North Pacific storm track can be further defined as two typical patterns( single-center pattern and double-center pattern).( 3) The correlation distribution of WI( EI) with 500 hPa geopotential height field is analogous to WP( PNA) teleconnection pattern. When the single-center pattern storm track is strong,the polar vortex expands southward and the three average troughs deepen. When the double-center pattern storm track exists,the polar vortex is significantly westward.( 4) The correlation distribution of WI( EI) with SLP field is analogous to NPO( NAO) teleconnection pattern. When the single-centerpattern storm track is strong( week),SLP anomaly field presents a positive( negative) phase of AO teleconnection pattern.
引文
邓兴秀,孙照渤.1994.北半球风暴轴的时间演变特征[J].南京气象学院学报,17(2):165-170.
刁一娜,李建平,罗德海.2004.阻塞流场与瞬变涡动相互作用的动力学研究[J].大气科学,28(6):901-924.
丁叶风,任雪娟,韩博.2006.北太平洋风暴轴的气候特征及其变化的初步研究[J].气象科学,26(3):237-243.
傅刚,毕玮,郭敬天.2009.北太平洋风暴轴的三维空间结构[J].气象学报,67(2):189-200.
高琦,孙照渤,邓伟涛.2008.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化[J].南京气象学院学报,31(2):272-276.
李莹,朱伟军,魏建苏.2010.冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的评估及其改进[J].大气科学,34(5):1001-1010.
任雪娟,杨修群,韩博,等.2007.北太平洋风暴轴的变异特征及其与中纬度海气耦合关系分析[J].地球物理学报,50(1):92-100.
孙照渤.1992.热带外地区大气中40—60 d振荡的统计特征[C]//章基嘉.长期天气预报论文集.北京:海洋出版社:29-35.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测研究[M].2版.北京:气象出版社.
朱伟军,李莹.2010.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化特征及其可能影响机制[J].气象学报,68(4):477-486.
朱伟军,孙照渤.1999.风暴轴的研究[J].南京气象学院学报,22(1):121-127.
朱伟军,孙照渤.2000.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际变化及其与500hPa高度场、热带和北太平洋海温的联系[J].气象学报,58(3):309-320.
朱伟军,袁凯,陈懿妮.2013.北太平洋东部风暴轴的时空演变特征[J].大气科学,37(1):65-80.
Athanasiadis P J,Wallace J M.2010.Patterns of wintertime jet stream variability and their relation to the storm tracks[J].J Atmos Sci,67:1361-1381.
Blackmon M L.1976.A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere[J].J Atmos Sci,33(8):1607-1623.
Chang E K M,Fu Y.2002.Interdecadal variations in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track intensity[J].J Climate,15:642-658.
Held I M,Lyons S W,Nigam S.1989.Transients and the extratropical response to El Nino[J].J Atmos Sci,46(1):163-174.
Hoerling M P,Ting M.1994.Organization of extratropical transint during El Nino[J].J Climate,7:745-766.
Hoskins B J,James I N,White G H.1983.The shape propagation and mean-flow interaction of large scale weathersystem[J].J Atmos Sci,40(7):1595-1612.
Hoskins B J,Valdes P.1990.On the existence of storm-tracks[J].J Atmos Sci,47(15):1854-1864.
Huang F,Zhou F X,Qian X D.2002.Interannual and decadal variability of the North Pacific blocking and its relationship to SST,teleconnection andstorm tracks[J].Adv Atmos Sci,19(5):807-820.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NECP/NCAR 40years reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Lau N C.1988.Variability of the observed midlatitudes storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation pattern[J].J Atmos Sci,45(19):2718-2743.
Luo D H,Diao Y,Feldstein S B.2011.The variability of the Atlantic storm track and the North Atlantic Oscillation:A link between intraseasonal and interannual variability[J].J Atmos Sci,68(3):577-601.
Nakamura H,Wallace J M.1990.Observed changes in baroclinic waveactivity during the life cycles of low-frequency circulation anomalies[J].J Atmos Sci,47(9):1100-1116.
Nakamura H,Izumi T,Sampe T.2002.Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon[J].J Climate,15:1855-1874.
Strars D M,Shukla J.1997.Variations of midlatitude transint dynamics associate with ENSO[J].J Atmos Sci,54(7):777-790.
Thompson D W,Wallace J M.1998.The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature field[J].Geophy Res Lett,25(9):1297-1300.
Thompson D W,Wallace J M.2001.Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode[J].Science,293:85-89.
Thompson D W,Wallace J M,Hegerl G C.2000.Annular modes in the extra tropical circulation.PartⅡ:Trends[J].J Climate,13(5):1018-1036.
Trenberth K E.1981.Observed Southern Hemisphere eddy statistics at
500 mb:Frequency and spatial dependence[J].J Atmos Sci,38(12):2585-2605.
Wettstein J J,Wallace J M.2010.Observed patterns of month-to-month storm-track variability and their relationship to the background flow[J].J Atmos Sci,67:1420-1437.
刁一娜,李建平,罗德海.2004.阻塞流场与瞬变涡动相互作用的动力学研究[J].大气科学,28(6):901-924.
丁叶风,任雪娟,韩博.2006.北太平洋风暴轴的气候特征及其变化的初步研究[J].气象科学,26(3):237-243.
傅刚,毕玮,郭敬天.2009.北太平洋风暴轴的三维空间结构[J].气象学报,67(2):189-200.
高琦,孙照渤,邓伟涛.2008.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化[J].南京气象学院学报,31(2):272-276.
李莹,朱伟军,魏建苏.2010.冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的评估及其改进[J].大气科学,34(5):1001-1010.
任雪娟,杨修群,韩博,等.2007.北太平洋风暴轴的变异特征及其与中纬度海气耦合关系分析[J].地球物理学报,50(1):92-100.
孙照渤.1992.热带外地区大气中40—60 d振荡的统计特征[C]//章基嘉.长期天气预报论文集.北京:海洋出版社:29-35.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测研究[M].2版.北京:气象出版社.
朱伟军,李莹.2010.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化特征及其可能影响机制[J].气象学报,68(4):477-486.
朱伟军,孙照渤.1999.风暴轴的研究[J].南京气象学院学报,22(1):121-127.
朱伟军,孙照渤.2000.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际变化及其与500hPa高度场、热带和北太平洋海温的联系[J].气象学报,58(3):309-320.
朱伟军,袁凯,陈懿妮.2013.北太平洋东部风暴轴的时空演变特征[J].大气科学,37(1):65-80.
Athanasiadis P J,Wallace J M.2010.Patterns of wintertime jet stream variability and their relation to the storm tracks[J].J Atmos Sci,67:1361-1381.
Blackmon M L.1976.A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere[J].J Atmos Sci,33(8):1607-1623.
Chang E K M,Fu Y.2002.Interdecadal variations in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track intensity[J].J Climate,15:642-658.
Held I M,Lyons S W,Nigam S.1989.Transients and the extratropical response to El Nino[J].J Atmos Sci,46(1):163-174.
Hoerling M P,Ting M.1994.Organization of extratropical transint during El Nino[J].J Climate,7:745-766.
Hoskins B J,James I N,White G H.1983.The shape propagation and mean-flow interaction of large scale weathersystem[J].J Atmos Sci,40(7):1595-1612.
Hoskins B J,Valdes P.1990.On the existence of storm-tracks[J].J Atmos Sci,47(15):1854-1864.
Huang F,Zhou F X,Qian X D.2002.Interannual and decadal variability of the North Pacific blocking and its relationship to SST,teleconnection andstorm tracks[J].Adv Atmos Sci,19(5):807-820.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NECP/NCAR 40years reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Lau N C.1988.Variability of the observed midlatitudes storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation pattern[J].J Atmos Sci,45(19):2718-2743.
Luo D H,Diao Y,Feldstein S B.2011.The variability of the Atlantic storm track and the North Atlantic Oscillation:A link between intraseasonal and interannual variability[J].J Atmos Sci,68(3):577-601.
Nakamura H,Wallace J M.1990.Observed changes in baroclinic waveactivity during the life cycles of low-frequency circulation anomalies[J].J Atmos Sci,47(9):1100-1116.
Nakamura H,Izumi T,Sampe T.2002.Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon[J].J Climate,15:1855-1874.
Strars D M,Shukla J.1997.Variations of midlatitude transint dynamics associate with ENSO[J].J Atmos Sci,54(7):777-790.
Thompson D W,Wallace J M.1998.The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature field[J].Geophy Res Lett,25(9):1297-1300.
Thompson D W,Wallace J M.2001.Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode[J].Science,293:85-89.
Thompson D W,Wallace J M,Hegerl G C.2000.Annular modes in the extra tropical circulation.PartⅡ:Trends[J].J Climate,13(5):1018-1036.
Trenberth K E.1981.Observed Southern Hemisphere eddy statistics at
500 mb:Frequency and spatial dependence[J].J Atmos Sci,38(12):2585-2605.
Wettstein J J,Wallace J M.2010.Observed patterns of month-to-month storm-track variability and their relationship to the background flow[J].J Atmos Sci,67:1420-1437.