考虑预报误差的水电站短期调度模糊风险研究
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摘要
水电站短期发电计划编制一般采用预报径流进行,但受预报精度限制,预报值与实际值往往存在偏差,当电站位于近边界水位运行时,该偏差就可能带来弃水或出力不足问题。为定量分析径流预报误差的模糊特性及其对水电站短期发电调度的影响,本文提出了一种基于最优贴近度准则的径流预报误差模糊隶属函数优选方法,并引入可信性理论,建立了水电站在两种典型近边界工况(正常蓄水位和死水位)下的发电调度模糊风险分析模型,实现了水文预报误差模糊性与水电站短期发电调度风险的耦合与转化。实例研究中给出了锦西电站在两种近边界运行工况下的高风险区域及建议运行区域,可为该电站实际短期发电调度提供有力的参考和借鉴。
Forecasted runoff is usually used to formulate a plan for short-term power generating operation of a hydropower station. However, errors in the forecasted inflow process is usually produced due to the error in runoff forecasting, and this will bring about a problem of unnecessary water abandoning or power output shortage in the case of a hydropower station operated at reservoir stage close to the limit. This paper describes a fuzzy membership function method for minimizing the effect of runoff forecasting errors based on an optimal closeness criterion to quantitatively analyze the fuzzy characteristics of the error and its influence on short-term operation of a hydropower station. And applying the credibility theory, we develop a fuzzy risk analysis model for the short-term operation, especially at reservoir stages around one of the two typical limits-normal stage or dead stage, achieving effective coupling and transformation between the fuzziness of forecasting errors and the risk in hydropower station operation. In a case study of the Jinxi hydropower station, this model reveals the high risk operation areas, and we suggest reliable areas for its operation close to the stage limits, thus providing useful information for short-term operation of hydropower stations.
Forecasted runoff is usually used to formulate a plan for short-term power generating operation of a hydropower station. However, errors in the forecasted inflow process is usually produced due to the error in runoff forecasting, and this will bring about a problem of unnecessary water abandoning or power output shortage in the case of a hydropower station operated at reservoir stage close to the limit. This paper describes a fuzzy membership function method for minimizing the effect of runoff forecasting errors based on an optimal closeness criterion to quantitatively analyze the fuzzy characteristics of the error and its influence on short-term operation of a hydropower station. And applying the credibility theory, we develop a fuzzy risk analysis model for the short-term operation, especially at reservoir stages around one of the two typical limits-normal stage or dead stage, achieving effective coupling and transformation between the fuzziness of forecasting errors and the risk in hydropower station operation. In a case study of the Jinxi hydropower station, this model reveals the high risk operation areas, and we suggest reliable areas for its operation close to the stage limits, thus providing useful information for short-term operation of hydropower stations.
引文
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[13]张改红.基于防洪预报调度的水库汛限水位设计与控制研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.ZHANG Gaihong.Design and control for the limited water level of reservoirs in the flood season based on flood prevention forecast operation[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2008.(in Chinese)
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[16]JIANG Z Q,SUN P,JI C M,et al.Credibility theory based dynamic control bound optimization for reservoir flood limited water level[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,529:928-939.Doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.012.
[17]王文圣.水文学不确定性分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.WANG Wensheng.Hydrology uncertainty analysis method[M].Bijng:Science Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[18]纪昌明,李传刚,刘晓勇,等.基于泛函分析思想的动态规划算法及其在水库调度中的应用研究[J].水利学报,2016,47(1):1-9.Doi:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150453.JI Changming,LI Chuangang,LIU Xiaoyong,et al.Research and application of dynamic programming algorithm in reservoir operation based on functional analysis[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(1):1-9.Doi:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150453.(in Chinese)
[19]LIU B D.Uncertainty theory:An introduction to its axiomatic foundations[M].Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH&Co.K.,2004.
[20]周佳,马光文,张志刚.基于改进POA算法的雅砻江梯级水电站群中长期优化调度研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(3):18-22.ZHOU Jia,MA Guangwen,ZHANG Zhigang.Optimal operation and fuzzy risk analysis for hydropower station by staged ensemble runoff prediction model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(3):18-22.(in Chinese)
[21]缪益平,魏鹏,陈飞翔,等.雅砻江下游梯级水电站联合优化调度研究[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):70-72.MIAO Yiping,WEI Peng,CHEN Feixiang,et al.Research on dispatching optimization of cascade hydropower stations in lower reach of Yalong River[J].Water Power,2014,40(5):70-72.(in Chinese)
[2]何洋.入库径流预报误差分析及在水库群短期发电调度中的应用[D].北京:华北电力大学(北京),2016.HE Yang.The analysis on inflow runoff forecast error and the application in reservoirs short-term generation scheduling[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University(Beijing),2016.(in Chinese)
[3]纪昌明,李荣波,刘丹,等.梯级水电站负荷调整方案评价指标体系及决策模型[J].水利学报,2017,48(3):261-269.Doi:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160570.JI Changming,LI Rongbo,LIU Dan,et al.Assessment index system and decision-making model for load adjustment schemes of cascade hydropower stations[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(3):261-269.Doi:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160570.(in Chinese)
[4]刘艳丽,周惠成,张建云.不确定性分析方法在水库防洪风险分析中的应用研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):47-53.LIU Yanli,ZHOU Huicheng,ZHANG Jianyun.Research of an uncertainty analysis method and application to risk assessment of reservoir flood control operation[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(6):47-53.(in Chinese)
[5]ZHANG Y P,WANG G L,PENG Y,et al.Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2011,54(7):1888-1893.Doi:10.1007/s11431-011-4392-2.
[6]刘招,席秋义,贾志峰,等.水库防洪预报调度的实用风险分析方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(5):35-40.LIU Zhao,XI Qiuyi,JIA Zhifeng,et al.Practical risk analysis method for reservoir flood forecast operation[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(5):35-40.(in Chinese)
[7]冯平,徐向广,温天福,等.考虑洪水预报误差的水库防洪控制调度的风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(3):47-51.FENG Ping,XU Xiangguang,WEN Tianfu,et al.Risk analysis of reservoir operation with considering flood forecast error[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(3):47-51.(in Chinese)
[8]卢迪,周如瑞,周惠成,等.耦合长期预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型[J].水科学进展,2016,27(3):458-466.Doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.03.014.LU Di,ZHOU Rurui,ZHOU Huicheng,et al.Reservoir operation model coupling long-term forecast of intake reservoir in inter-basin water diversion[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(3):458-466.Doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.03.014.(in Chinese)
[9]YAN B W,GUO S L,CHEN L.Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2014,28(2):359-368.Doi:10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4.
[10]LIU Z,GUO Y P,WANG L X,et al.Streamflow forecast errors and their impacts on forecast-based reservoir flood control[J].Water Resources Management,2015,29(12):4557-4572.Doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1080-1.
[11]钟平安,唐林,张梦然.水电站长期发电优化调度方案风险分析研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(1):39-43.ZHONG Ping’an,TANG Lin,ZHANG Mengran.Study on risk analysis of long-term power generation optimal dispatching scheme for hydropower station[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,30(1):39-43.(in Chinese)
[12]张铭,李承军,张勇传.贝叶斯概率水文预报系统在中长期径流预报中的应用[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):40-44.Doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2009.01.009.ZHANG Ming,LI Chengjun,ZHANG Yongchuan.Application of the Bayesian statistic hydrological forecast system to middle-and long-term runoff forecast[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):40-44.Doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2009.01.009.(in Chinese)
[13]张改红.基于防洪预报调度的水库汛限水位设计与控制研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.ZHANG Gaihong.Design and control for the limited water level of reservoirs in the flood season based on flood prevention forecast operation[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2008.(in Chinese)
[14]CHEN J,ZHONG P A,ZHAO Y F,et al.Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2015,29(5):1303-1315.Doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1032-6.
[15]刘冀,王本德,周惠成,等.基于分期组合预报模型的水电站优化调度及其模糊风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(6):140-145.LIU Ji,WANG Bende,ZHOU Huicheng,et al.Optimal operation and fuzzy risk analysis for hydropower station by staged ensemble runoff prediction model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(6):140-145.(in Chinese)
[16]JIANG Z Q,SUN P,JI C M,et al.Credibility theory based dynamic control bound optimization for reservoir flood limited water level[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,529:928-939.Doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.012.
[17]王文圣.水文学不确定性分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.WANG Wensheng.Hydrology uncertainty analysis method[M].Bijng:Science Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[18]纪昌明,李传刚,刘晓勇,等.基于泛函分析思想的动态规划算法及其在水库调度中的应用研究[J].水利学报,2016,47(1):1-9.Doi:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150453.JI Changming,LI Chuangang,LIU Xiaoyong,et al.Research and application of dynamic programming algorithm in reservoir operation based on functional analysis[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(1):1-9.Doi:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150453.(in Chinese)
[19]LIU B D.Uncertainty theory:An introduction to its axiomatic foundations[M].Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH&Co.K.,2004.
[20]周佳,马光文,张志刚.基于改进POA算法的雅砻江梯级水电站群中长期优化调度研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(3):18-22.ZHOU Jia,MA Guangwen,ZHANG Zhigang.Optimal operation and fuzzy risk analysis for hydropower station by staged ensemble runoff prediction model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(3):18-22.(in Chinese)
[21]缪益平,魏鹏,陈飞翔,等.雅砻江下游梯级水电站联合优化调度研究[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):70-72.MIAO Yiping,WEI Peng,CHEN Feixiang,et al.Research on dispatching optimization of cascade hydropower stations in lower reach of Yalong River[J].Water Power,2014,40(5):70-72.(in Chinese)