面向需求侧主动响应的工商业用户电力套餐优化设计
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摘要
电力需求响应是应对电网峰谷差持续拉大、间歇性可再生能源大规模并网、能源结构转变等问题的有效方法。为此,提出了一种新的需求侧主动响应策略——面向工商业用户的电力套餐,并对电力套餐的设计问题进行了优化研究。首先,采用基于特性指标降维的负荷聚类方法辨识工商业用户的负荷特征,为电力套餐的设计进行市场细分;其次,在综合考虑电费支出满意度和用电方式满意度对用户决策的影响的基础上,基于多项Logit模型构建用户对电力套餐的选择行为模型;接着,构建基于成本—效益分析的电力套餐综合评估模型,以衡量电力套餐的经济价值;然后,在此基础上,提出以最大化益本比为优化目标的电力套餐设计的优化模型。算例采用某地区工商业用户的实际数据,结果显示了所提电力套餐的经济价值及其调动需求侧主动参与负荷管理的效果。
Demand response(DR)is regarded as one of the most important solution to the increasing peak-valley differences,grid-connection of large-scale renewable energy sources and transformation of energy structure.Therefore,a novel DR plan is proposed,which is named as electricity plans for industrial and commercial customers.The design of electricity plans is studied in depth.In order to obtain market segmentation,pattern index clustering is used to identify the load characteristics of industrial and commercial customers.Taking customer satisfaction with electricity bills and the way of electricity consumption into account,a customer choice behavior model based on multinomial Logit model(MNL)is built.To measure the economic value of electricity plans,a comprehensive evaluation model for electricity plans is proposed based on cost-benefit analysis.On this basis,an optimization model for designing electricity plans is established,in which maximizing the benefit cost ratio is taken as the optimization objective.Finally,a case is studied to verify the economic value and the role of the active participation in load management of electricity plans.
Demand response(DR)is regarded as one of the most important solution to the increasing peak-valley differences,grid-connection of large-scale renewable energy sources and transformation of energy structure.Therefore,a novel DR plan is proposed,which is named as electricity plans for industrial and commercial customers.The design of electricity plans is studied in depth.In order to obtain market segmentation,pattern index clustering is used to identify the load characteristics of industrial and commercial customers.Taking customer satisfaction with electricity bills and the way of electricity consumption into account,a customer choice behavior model based on multinomial Logit model(MNL)is built.To measure the economic value of electricity plans,a comprehensive evaluation model for electricity plans is proposed based on cost-benefit analysis.On this basis,an optimization model for designing electricity plans is established,in which maximizing the benefit cost ratio is taken as the optimization objective.Finally,a case is studied to verify the economic value and the role of the active participation in load management of electricity plans.
引文
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[19]刘思,李林芝,吴浩,等.基于特性指标降维的日负荷曲线聚类分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(3):797-803.LIU Si,LI Linzhi,WU Hao,et al.Cluster analysis of daily load curves using load pattern indexes to reduce dimensions[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(3):797-803.
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[22]BOURGUIGNON F, FOURNIER M, GURGAND M.Selection bias corrections based on the multinomial logit model:Monte Carlo comparisons[J].Journal of Economic Surveys,2007,21(1):174-205.
[23]王刚,董亦华,王珂,等.计及网络约束的发用电一体化综合优化调度模型[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):105-111.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161228006.WANGGang, DONGYihua, WANGKe, etal.Comprehensive optimal scheduling model for integration of power generation and consumption considering network constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):105-111.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161228006.
[24]曲朝阳,韩晶,曲楠,等.考虑家电关联与舒适性相结合的用电行为多目标优化模型[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(2):50-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170613013.QU Zhaoyang,HAN Jing,QU Nan,et al.Multi-objective optimization model of electricity consumption behavior considering combination of household appliance correlation and comfort[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(2):50-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170613013.
[25]沈运帷,李扬,焦系泽,等.新电改背景下需求响应成本效益分析及其融资渠道[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(9):124-130.SHEN Yunwei,LI Yang,JIAO Xize,et al.Cost-benefit analysis and financing channels for demand response under electric reform[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(9):124-130.
[26]肖欣,周渝慧,郑凯中,等.台湾实施可中断电价进行削峰填谷的需求响应策略及其成本效益分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(22):3615-3622.XIAO Xin,ZHOU Yuhui,CHENG Kaichung,et al.Research on strategy of interruptible price and its cost-benefit model aimed at peak load shifting in Taiwan[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3615-3622.
[27]董萌萌.基于峰谷电价的需求响应效果评价[D].北京:华北电力大学,2014.DONG Mengmeng. Demand response effect evaluation considering time-of-use price[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2014.
[28]曾鸣.电力需求侧响应原理及其在电力市场中的应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2011.ZENG Ming.Demand side response principle and its application in power market[M].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2011.
[2]曾博,杨雍琦,段金辉,等.新能源电力系统中需求侧响应关键问题及未来研究展望[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(17):10-18.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20150408010.ZENG Bo,YANG Yongqi,DUAN Jinhui,et al.Key issues and research prospects for demand-side response in alternate electrical power systems with renewable energy sources[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(17):10-18.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20150408010.
[3]张炜,王秀丽.基于分段竞价的售电侧需求响应策略[J].电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(14):24-29. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170218006.ZHANG Wei, WANG Xiuli.Block bidding based demand response strategy for power sales side[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):24-29.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170218006.
[4]沈运帷,李扬,高赐威,等.需求响应在电力辅助服务市场中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(22):151-161.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170302007.SHEN Yunwei,LI Yang,GAO Ciwei,et al.Application of demand response in ancillary service market[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(22):151-161. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170302007.
[5]Public Utility Commission of Texas.Shop compare choose[EB/OL].[2018-01-02].http://www.powertochoose.org.
[6]uSwitch.Gas&electricity guides[EB/OL].[2018-01-02].https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/guides.
[7]Canstar Blue.Your electricity questions answered[EB/OL].[2018-01-02].https://www.canstarblue.com.au/energy/electricity.
[8]SANTOS P E.S,LEME R C,GALVO L.Ontheelectrical two-part tariff—the Brazilian perspective[J].Energy Policy,2012,40(1):123-130.
[9]HAHN T, TAN Z, KO W.Design of time-varying rate considering CO2 emission[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2013,4(1):383-389.
[10]SIOSHANSI R.Retail electricity tariff and mechanism design to incentivize distributed renewable generation[J].Energy Policy,2016,95:498-508.
[11]NAMERIKAWA T,OKUBO N,SATO R,et al.Real-time pricing mechanism for electricity market with built-in incentive for participation[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2015,6(6):2714-2724.
[12]SAMADI P,MOHSENIAN-RAD H,SCHOBER R,et al.Advanced demand side management for the future smart grid using mechanism design[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2012,3(3):1170-1180.
[13]YAN Q,MANICKAM I,KEZUNOVIC M,et al.A multitiered real-time pricing algorithm for electric vehicle charging stations[C]//IEEE Transportation Electrification Conference and Exposition,June 15-18,2014,Dearborn,MI,USA:1-6.
[14]高亚静,吕孟扩,王球,等.基于离散吸引力模型的电动汽车充放电最优分时电价研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(22):3647-3653.GAO Yajing,LMengkuo,WANG Qiu,et al.Research on optimal TOU price considering electric vehicles charging and discharging based on discrete attractive model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3647-3653.
[15]HOBMAN E V,FREDERIKS E R,STENNER K,et al.Uptake and usage of cost-reflective electricity pricing:insights from psychology and behavioural economics[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,57:455-467.
[16]姜爱华,韦化.信息物理融合的智能空调响应不确定性尖峰折扣电价的动态优化模型及在线控制[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(6):1536-1543.JIANG Aihua,WEI Hua.A dynamic optimized model and the on-line control strategy response to uncertainty PTR for the CPS of smart air conditioning[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(6):1536-1543.
[17]中华人民共和国国家统计局.年度数据查询[EB/OL].[2018-01-02].http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01.National Bureau of Statistics of China.Annual data query[EB/OL].[2018-01-02].http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01.
[18]史俊祎,文福拴,崔鹏程,等.参与需求响应的工业用户智能用电管理[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):45-53.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170203002.SHI Junyi,WEN Fushuan,CUI Pengcheng,et al.Intelligent energy management of industrial loads considering participation in demand response program[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(14):45-53. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170203002.
[19]刘思,李林芝,吴浩,等.基于特性指标降维的日负荷曲线聚类分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(3):797-803.LIU Si,LI Linzhi,WU Hao,et al.Cluster analysis of daily load curves using load pattern indexes to reduce dimensions[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(3):797-803.
[20]MILLIGAN G W, COOPER M C.An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set[J].Psychometrika,1985,50(2):159-179.
[21]聂冲,贾生华.离散选择模型的基本原理及其发展演进评介[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,22(11):151-159.NIE Chong,JIA Shenghua.Research on the theoretical basis and evolution of discrete choice models[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2005,22(11):151-159.
[22]BOURGUIGNON F, FOURNIER M, GURGAND M.Selection bias corrections based on the multinomial logit model:Monte Carlo comparisons[J].Journal of Economic Surveys,2007,21(1):174-205.
[23]王刚,董亦华,王珂,等.计及网络约束的发用电一体化综合优化调度模型[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):105-111.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161228006.WANGGang, DONGYihua, WANGKe, etal.Comprehensive optimal scheduling model for integration of power generation and consumption considering network constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):105-111.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161228006.
[24]曲朝阳,韩晶,曲楠,等.考虑家电关联与舒适性相结合的用电行为多目标优化模型[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(2):50-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170613013.QU Zhaoyang,HAN Jing,QU Nan,et al.Multi-objective optimization model of electricity consumption behavior considering combination of household appliance correlation and comfort[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(2):50-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170613013.
[25]沈运帷,李扬,焦系泽,等.新电改背景下需求响应成本效益分析及其融资渠道[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(9):124-130.SHEN Yunwei,LI Yang,JIAO Xize,et al.Cost-benefit analysis and financing channels for demand response under electric reform[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(9):124-130.
[26]肖欣,周渝慧,郑凯中,等.台湾实施可中断电价进行削峰填谷的需求响应策略及其成本效益分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(22):3615-3622.XIAO Xin,ZHOU Yuhui,CHENG Kaichung,et al.Research on strategy of interruptible price and its cost-benefit model aimed at peak load shifting in Taiwan[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3615-3622.
[27]董萌萌.基于峰谷电价的需求响应效果评价[D].北京:华北电力大学,2014.DONG Mengmeng. Demand response effect evaluation considering time-of-use price[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2014.
[28]曾鸣.电力需求侧响应原理及其在电力市场中的应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2011.ZENG Ming.Demand side response principle and its application in power market[M].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2011.