变化环境下新疆沙湾县灌区地下水动态趋势及驱动因素
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摘要
根据沙湾县地下水系统与外部环境的关系,结合灌区1998-2017年的地下水位平均埋深资料,采用Pearson、Kendall和Spearman秩次相关检验3种方法,分析了近20 a灌区变化环境的变化趋势及对地下水动态的影响;运用主成分回归分析法确定影响灌区地下水埋深变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:近20 a来,灌区年均气温呈不显著增加趋势,降水呈不显著减少趋势,近10 a(2008-2017年)在a=0.01水平上地表水灌溉量呈显著减少趋势,灌溉面积、节水灌溉面积及地下水开采量均呈显著增加趋势;地下水动态变化的驱动因子为地下水开采、地表水灌溉、节水灌溉、灌溉面积、气温、降水,影响程度依次降低;人为活动对地下水动态起主导作用,其中以地下水为主要水源的节水灌溉面积的增加是造成地下水位下降的主要原因。研究区在实施退耕还林、机井封填的同时还需要通过调整农业结构,提高农灌效率,节水灌溉结合地表、地下水来实现地下水资源的可持续利用。
According to the relationship between the groundwater system and the external environment in Shawan county, combined with the data of the average buried depth of the groundwater level in the irrigation area from 1998 to 2017, three correlation rank test methods, including Pearson, Kendall and Spearman, were adopted to analyze the environment changing trend of the irrigation area in the nearly 20 years and its influence on the groundwater dynamics. The principal component regression analysis was used to determine the main driving factors affecting the change of groundwater depth in irrigation areas. The results showed that in the past 20 years, the average annual temperature in the irrigation area presented an insignificant increase trend, while the precipitation presented an insignificant decrease trend. In the past 10 years(2008-2017), the surface water irrigation amount presented a significant decrease trend at the level of a=0.01, and the irrigation area, water-saving irrigation area and groundwater exploitation all presented a significant increase trend. The driving factors of groundwater dynamic change are groundwater mining, surface water irrigation, water-saving irrigation, irrigation area, air temperature and precipitation, and the influence degree decreases successively. Human activities play a leading role in groundwater dynamics, among which the increase of water-saving irrigation area with groundwater as the main water source is the main reason for the decrease of groundwater level. The sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in the study area should be realized by adjusting agricultural structure, improving agricultural irrigation efficiency, and combining water-saving irrigation with surface and underground water while converting farmland to forests and filling wells.
According to the relationship between the groundwater system and the external environment in Shawan county, combined with the data of the average buried depth of the groundwater level in the irrigation area from 1998 to 2017, three correlation rank test methods, including Pearson, Kendall and Spearman, were adopted to analyze the environment changing trend of the irrigation area in the nearly 20 years and its influence on the groundwater dynamics. The principal component regression analysis was used to determine the main driving factors affecting the change of groundwater depth in irrigation areas. The results showed that in the past 20 years, the average annual temperature in the irrigation area presented an insignificant increase trend, while the precipitation presented an insignificant decrease trend. In the past 10 years(2008-2017), the surface water irrigation amount presented a significant decrease trend at the level of a=0.01, and the irrigation area, water-saving irrigation area and groundwater exploitation all presented a significant increase trend. The driving factors of groundwater dynamic change are groundwater mining, surface water irrigation, water-saving irrigation, irrigation area, air temperature and precipitation, and the influence degree decreases successively. Human activities play a leading role in groundwater dynamics, among which the increase of water-saving irrigation area with groundwater as the main water source is the main reason for the decrease of groundwater level. The sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in the study area should be realized by adjusting agricultural structure, improving agricultural irrigation efficiency, and combining water-saving irrigation with surface and underground water while converting farmland to forests and filling wells.
引文
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[2] 董奎.沙湾县水资源现状分析[J].水科学与工程技术,2012,(5):44-47.
[3] 赵霞.沙湾县人大问诊把脉兴水利[J].新疆人大(汉文),2012,(8):15.
[4] 魏钦罗.沙湾县地下水资源开发利用存在的问题及发展对策[J].水利科技与经济,2013,19(8):79-80.
[5] 朱晓刚.新疆沙湾县水资源现状和今后发展[J].黑龙江水利科技,2013,41(11):266-268.
[6] 杜伟,魏晓妹,李萍,等.变化环境下灌区地下水动态演变趋势及驱动因素[J].排灌机械工程学报,2013,31(11):993-999.
[7] 刘燕.泾惠渠灌区地下水位动态变化特征及成因分析[J].人民长江,2010,41(8):100-103,107.
[8] 张文化. 变化环境对石羊河流域地下水动态的影响及其生态环境效应研究[D]. 陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2009.
[9] 郑昊安. 节水灌溉对地下水补给的影响特性研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2013.
[10] 李红霞,赵新华,张建军.肯达尔非参数秩次相关检验法用于地面沉降的分析[J].中国给水排水,2007,(9):67-69.
[11] 江振蓝.基于Mann-Kendall方法的水土流失时空格局变化[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(2):60-65,72.
[12] 王松桂.主成分的最优性与广义主成分估计类[J].应用概率统计,1985,(1):23-30.
[13] 徐林.利用SPSS进行主成分回归分析[J].宁波职业技术学院学报,2006,(2):67-69,74.
[14] 李鹏,王新娟,孙颖,等.气候变化对北京地下水资源的影响分析[J].节水灌溉,2017,(5):80-83,89.
[15] 丹利,杨富强,吴涧.1960-2009年北京地区城市化背景下蒸发皿蒸发量的时空变化[J].气象科学,2011,31(4):405-413.
[16] 张真真,卞建民,李天宇,等.大安市地下水动态变化趋势及驱动因素研究[J].水文,2015,35(4):91-96.
[17] Margriet Nakken. Wavelet analysis of rainfall-runoff variability isolating climatic from anthropogenic patterns[J]. Environmental Modelling and Software,1999,14(4).