发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警的效果
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摘要
目的探讨发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警效果。方法收集2007年1月-2009年12月本地区发热呼吸道症状监测数据进行分析,对2009年甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情数据进行拟合判断预警效果。结果 2009年甲型H1N1病例数在第35周后明显增加,在42周到达高峰,随即开始下降,其走势与ILI%(流感样病例占同期门急诊就诊总人数百分比)趋势相同;控制图法预警显示:ILI%在21~29周,35~43周和46周出现预警信息,基本与2009年甲型H1N1流行趋势一致;移动平均数回归法预警显示,2009年25~26周,29周,36~42周ILI%超过平均线,其中第42周超过了平均线+2.0标准差预警线,与2009年甲型H1N1第42周达到高峰的流行趋势吻合。结论发热呼吸道症状监测预警能较好的反映甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情,其中应用移动平均回归法预警效果较控制图法好。
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A(H1N1)outbreak.METHODS The fever respiratory symptoms monitoring data from Jan.2007 to Dec.2009 were collected and analyzed,and the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)outbreak epidemic data were fitted to determine the effect of early warning.RESULTS The case of 2009 influenza A(H1N1)increased significantly in the 35 th weeks,reached a peak in the 42 nd week,then began to decline,and was the same as the trend of ILI%(percentage of influenza like cases to the total number of outpatient and emergency visits at the same time).Control chart method warning indicated,ILI% appeared warning information in the 21st-29 th week,35th-43 rd week and 46 week,which was consistent with the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)trends.Moving average regression early warning indicated,ILI% was over the average line in 25th-26 th week,29 th week,and 36 th week-42 nd week in2009,and was over the average line+2.0standard deviation warning line in 42 nd week,which was matched the epidemic trend of 2009 influenza A(H1N1).CONCLUSION Fever respiratory symptoms monitoring warning can preferably reflect the outbreak of influenza A(H1N1),and the early warning effect of moving average regression is better than that of control chart method.
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A(H1N1)outbreak.METHODS The fever respiratory symptoms monitoring data from Jan.2007 to Dec.2009 were collected and analyzed,and the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)outbreak epidemic data were fitted to determine the effect of early warning.RESULTS The case of 2009 influenza A(H1N1)increased significantly in the 35 th weeks,reached a peak in the 42 nd week,then began to decline,and was the same as the trend of ILI%(percentage of influenza like cases to the total number of outpatient and emergency visits at the same time).Control chart method warning indicated,ILI% appeared warning information in the 21st-29 th week,35th-43 rd week and 46 week,which was consistent with the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)trends.Moving average regression early warning indicated,ILI% was over the average line in 25th-26 th week,29 th week,and 36 th week-42 nd week in2009,and was over the average line+2.0standard deviation warning line in 42 nd week,which was matched the epidemic trend of 2009 influenza A(H1N1).CONCLUSION Fever respiratory symptoms monitoring warning can preferably reflect the outbreak of influenza A(H1N1),and the early warning effect of moving average regression is better than that of control chart method.
引文
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[15]资海荣,郭艳,邓斐,等.江苏省2013年甲型H1N1(09pdm)流感病毒血凝素和神经氨酸酶分子特征分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2015,24(6):812-822.
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[18]Haque F,Sturm-Ramirez K,Homaira N,et al.Influenza B virus outbreak at a religious residential school for boys in Northern Bangladesh,2011[J].Infl Other Respir Virus,2016,25(6):90-92.
[19]Reggeti M,Romero E,Eblen-Zajjur A.In silico evaluation of an aviar influenza AH5N1virus outbreak with human to human transmission:effects of sanitary measures in Valencia,Venezuela,2012[J].Rev Chilena Infectol,2016,33(3):255-260.
[20]Tang X,Xi X,Chen C,et al.Long-term follow-up of 5survivors after the first outbreak of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in Shanghai,China[J].Chin Med J,2016,129(17):2128-2131.
[2]潘虹,刘瑞弘,文奇,等.甲型H1N1流感监测及其HA1基因特性分析,以2013~2014年新余市为例[J].基因组学与应用生物学,2015,32(2):247-251.
[3]沈静华,倪刚,倪文玲,等.2009年-2011年红河州流感监测结果分析[J].中国卫生检验杂志,2013,28(12):2660-2661.
[4]吕惠荣,张秀娟,杨云惠.2009年-2011年信阳市流感监测结果分析[J].中国卫生检验杂志,2013,32(4):952-955.
[5]李红,卢囡囡,易虎,等.西宁地区儿童甲型H1N1流感血清抗体水平调查[J].中国妇幼保健,2012,26(22):3470-3472.
[6]黄一伟,高立冬,李芳彩,等.湖南省甲型H1N1流行性感冒大流行后乙型流行性感冒病毒的特征[J].中华传染病杂志,2012,30(6):334-338.
[7]唐志坚,易虎,姜双应,等.2009-2010年青海省新甲型H1N1流感流行特征分析[J].环境卫生学杂志,2012,32(3):117-119.
[8]Wong JY,Wu P,Lau EH,et al.Real-time estimation of the hospitalization fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09in Hong Kong[J].Epidemiol Infect,2016,144(8):1579-1583.
[9]Mugosa B,Vujosevic D,Ciccozzi M,et al.Genetic diversity of the haemagglutinin(HA)of human influenza A(H1N1)virus in Montenegro:focus on its origin and evolution[J].J Med Virol,2016,24(6):90-92.
[10]Romero-Perez GA,Egashira M,Harada Y,et al.Orally administered salacia reticulata extract reduces H1N1influenza clinical symptoms in murine lung tissues putatively due to enhanced natural killer cell activity[J].Front Immunol,2016,7(4):115-117.
[11]赵聪,陈叶,张弘,等.儿科门诊甲型H1N1流感症状监测结果分析[J].中国公共卫生,2012,26(4):536-537.
[12]葛爱华,王笑辰,戴启刚,等.江苏省流感样病例报告与甲型流感筛查情况分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,22(8):782-786.
[13]Yaari R,Katriel G,Stone L,et al.Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets:understanding influenza A/H1N1pandemic dynamics in Israel[J].J R Soc Interface,2016,13(116):90-92.
[14]Shubin M,Lebedev A,Lyytikainen O,et al.Revealing the true incidence of pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09influenza in Finland during the first two seasons-an analysis based on a dynamic transmission model[J].PLoS Comput Biol,2016,12(3):803-805.
[15]资海荣,郭艳,邓斐,等.江苏省2013年甲型H1N1(09pdm)流感病毒血凝素和神经氨酸酶分子特征分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2015,24(6):812-822.
[16]Shriner SA,Root JJ,Lutman M W,et al.Surveillance for highly pathogenic H5avian influenza virus in synanthropic wildlife associated with poultry farms during an acute outbreak[J].Scientific Reports,2016,6(5):36237.
[17]Schicker RS,Rossow J,Eckel S,et al.Outbreak of influenza A(H3N2)variant virus infections among persons attending agricultural fairs housing infected swine-Michigan and Ohio,July-August 2016[J].MMWR,2016,65(42):1157-1160.
[18]Haque F,Sturm-Ramirez K,Homaira N,et al.Influenza B virus outbreak at a religious residential school for boys in Northern Bangladesh,2011[J].Infl Other Respir Virus,2016,25(6):90-92.
[19]Reggeti M,Romero E,Eblen-Zajjur A.In silico evaluation of an aviar influenza AH5N1virus outbreak with human to human transmission:effects of sanitary measures in Valencia,Venezuela,2012[J].Rev Chilena Infectol,2016,33(3):255-260.
[20]Tang X,Xi X,Chen C,et al.Long-term follow-up of 5survivors after the first outbreak of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in Shanghai,China[J].Chin Med J,2016,129(17):2128-2131.