专用道环境下公交乘客满意度与延误关系研究
|
摘要
为了探究公交专用道被拆除的原因,对专用道运行条件下乘客满意度与延误的关系进行了研究。首先在常州开展了公交专用道乘客满意度问卷调查,调查共获得有效问卷251份。依托调查所获数据,采用有序Logistic回归模型,建立了乘客满意度与车内乘坐时间的模型,并根据乘客车内乘坐时间与延误的关系,得到了乘客满意度与延误的模型。为了能以图示的方式体现乘客满意度与延误的关系,引入了单位延误的概念,并基于乘客满意度与延误的模型推导出了乘客满意度与单位延误的模型。然后通过对所建模型的图形化展示,分析了不同理想车内时间下乘客满意度与延误的关系。研究表明:乘客满意度主要受理想车内时间的影响,其随着理想车内时间的增加而明显下降;乘客对延误的感知较为模糊,乘客满意度没有表现出因为延误增加而显著下降的特性;公交专用道被拆除主要是因为规划设计不合理,运营管理不当的致因较小。研究成果为厘清公交专用道被拆除的原因提供思路,有助于提升公交专用道的运营效果。
In order to explore why some exclusive bus lanes are removed at present in China,the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay under exclusive bus lane condition is researched. First, the questionnaire survey of bus passenger satisfaction is conducted in Changzhou,in total of 251 samples are collected. Based on the collected data,the model of passenger satisfaction and in-vehicle time is established using ordinal logistic regression model. According to the relationship between in-vehicle time and delay,the model of passenger satisfaction and delay is obtained. To illustrate the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay,the concept of unit delay is introduced,and the model of passenger satisfaction and unit delay is derived based on the model of passenger satisfaction and delay. Then, according to the graphical depiction of the proposed model, the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay for different free in-vehicle time are analyzed. The result shows that( 1) passenger satisfaction is mainly influenced by free in-vehicle time, and it will observably decline as free in-vehicle time increase;( 2)passenger's perception on delay is very insensitive,passenger satisfaction has not remarkably deteriorated because of delay's increase;( 3) the removal of the exclusive bus lanes mainly attributes to irrational planning and design, and inappropriate operation management has a minimal impact on it. The research findings herein provide insights for clarifying the reasons of removing bus lanes and improving bus operation effect.
In order to explore why some exclusive bus lanes are removed at present in China,the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay under exclusive bus lane condition is researched. First, the questionnaire survey of bus passenger satisfaction is conducted in Changzhou,in total of 251 samples are collected. Based on the collected data,the model of passenger satisfaction and in-vehicle time is established using ordinal logistic regression model. According to the relationship between in-vehicle time and delay,the model of passenger satisfaction and delay is obtained. To illustrate the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay,the concept of unit delay is introduced,and the model of passenger satisfaction and unit delay is derived based on the model of passenger satisfaction and delay. Then, according to the graphical depiction of the proposed model, the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay for different free in-vehicle time are analyzed. The result shows that( 1) passenger satisfaction is mainly influenced by free in-vehicle time, and it will observably decline as free in-vehicle time increase;( 2)passenger's perception on delay is very insensitive,passenger satisfaction has not remarkably deteriorated because of delay's increase;( 3) the removal of the exclusive bus lanes mainly attributes to irrational planning and design, and inappropriate operation management has a minimal impact on it. The research findings herein provide insights for clarifying the reasons of removing bus lanes and improving bus operation effect.
引文
[1]交通运输部.2017年交通运输行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].http://zizhan.mot.gov.cn/zfxxgk/bnssj/zhghs/201803/t20180329_3005087.html,2018.3.30.Ministry of Transport of PRC.Statistic Bulletin of Development of Transportation Industry in 2017[EB/OL].http://zizhan.mot.gov.cn/zfxxgk/bnssj/zhghs/201803/t20180329_3005087.html,2018.3.30.
[2]韩志强.轨道交通环境下公交专用道布网及设置[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(增1):31-35.HAN Zhi-qiang.Exclusive Bus Lanes Network Planning and Designing for Urban Metro Traffic[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2011,28(S1):31-35.
[3]王红梅,贾玲玉.北京市公共交通满意度物元评价[J].软科学,2011,25(7):42-44.WANG Hong-mei,JIA Ling-yu.Evaluation of Public Transport Users'Satisfaction in Beijing Based on Matter Element Model[J].Soft Science,2011,25(7):42-44.
[4]彭晗,吴金妹,姚林晓.基于AHP-DEMATEL法的公交换乘系统乘客满意度模糊评价[J].重庆交通大学学报:社科版,2014,14(1):19-22.PENG Han,WU Jin-mei,YAO Lin-xiao.Fuzzy Evaluation of Public Transfer System Passenger Satisfaction Based on AHP-DEMATEL Method[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition,2014,14(1):19-22.
[5]黄明芳,郑建湖.基于AHP和模糊综合评价的BRT乘客满意度分析[J].山东交通学院学报,2017,25(3):44-56.HUANG Ming-fang,ZHENG Jian-hu.Satisfaction Analysis of BRT Passenger Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation[J].Journal of Shandong Jiaotong University,2017,25(3):44-56.
[6]薛兴海,巩丽媛,倪亚洲,等.基于乘客满意度的公交服务水平模糊评价[J].科技和产业,2012,12(5):91-94,102.XUE Xing-hai,GONG Li-yuan,NI Ya-zhou,et al.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Bus Service Levels Based on Passenger Satisfaction[J].Science Technology and Industry,2012,12(5):91-94,102.
[7]张兵,曾明华,陈秋燕,等.基于SEM的城市公交服务质量-满意度-忠诚度研究[J].数理统计与管理,2016,35(2):198-205.ZHANG Bing,ZENG Ming-hua,CHEN Qiu-yan,et al.Study of Urban Public Transport the Service Qualitysatisfaction-loyalty Based on Structural Equation Modeling[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management,2016,35(2):198-205.
[8]季彦婕,周洋,高良鹏,等.基于结构方程模型的乘客出行满意度评价[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2016,14(3):7-12,18.JI Yan-jie,ZHOU Yang,GAO Liang-peng,et al.Evaluation of Passenger Satisfaction Based on Structural Equation Modeling Approach[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2016,14(3):7-12,18.
[9]李琼,马兴慧,朱顺应.基于SEM的公交乘客满意度测评模型[J].物流技术,2016,35(10):78-81,97.LI Qiong,MA Xing-hui,ZHU Shun-ying.Bus Passenger Satisfaction Measurement Model Based on SEM[J].Logistics Technology,2016,35(10):78-81,97.
[10]董琳琳.基于结构方程模型的公交乘客满意度研究:以重庆市为例[D].重庆:重庆大学,2012.DONG Lin-lin.Study of Bus Passengers Satisfaction Based on Structural Equation Model:Taking Chongqing City as an Example[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2012.
[11]HUO Yue-ying,LI Wen-quan,CHEN Qian.Modeling Customer Satisfaction for Bus Rapid Transit in Changzhou,China[J].Journal of Southeast University:English Edition,2016,32(2):233-238.
[12]武钧,霍月英.快速公交乘客满意度影响因素的定量研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(21):219-224.WU Jun,HUO Yue-ying.Quantitative Study on Effect Factors of Passenger Satisfaction for BRT[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2015,51(21):219-224.
[13]NWACHUKWU A.Assessment of Passenger Satisfaction with Intra-city Public Bus Transport Services in Abuja,Nigeria[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2014,17(1):99-119.
[14]AIDOO E N,AGYEMANG W,MONKAH J E,et al.Passenger's Satisfaction with Public Bus Transport Services in Ghana:A Case Study of Kumasi-Accra Route[J].Theoretical&Empirical Researches in Urban Management,2013,8(2):5-17.
[15]OLIVKOVAI.Model for Measuring Passenger Satisfaction and Assessing Mass Transit Quality[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2015,18(3):52-70.
[16]WU J X,YANG M,RASOULI S,et al.Exploring Passenger Assessments of Bus Service Quality Using Bayesian Networks[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2016,19(3):36-54.
[17]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型-方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.WANG Ji-chuan,GUO Zhi-gang.Logistic Regression Model:Method and Application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.
[18]HOSMER D W,LEMESHOW S.Applied Logistic Regression[M].2nd ed.New York:John Wiley&Sons Inc,2000.
[2]韩志强.轨道交通环境下公交专用道布网及设置[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(增1):31-35.HAN Zhi-qiang.Exclusive Bus Lanes Network Planning and Designing for Urban Metro Traffic[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2011,28(S1):31-35.
[3]王红梅,贾玲玉.北京市公共交通满意度物元评价[J].软科学,2011,25(7):42-44.WANG Hong-mei,JIA Ling-yu.Evaluation of Public Transport Users'Satisfaction in Beijing Based on Matter Element Model[J].Soft Science,2011,25(7):42-44.
[4]彭晗,吴金妹,姚林晓.基于AHP-DEMATEL法的公交换乘系统乘客满意度模糊评价[J].重庆交通大学学报:社科版,2014,14(1):19-22.PENG Han,WU Jin-mei,YAO Lin-xiao.Fuzzy Evaluation of Public Transfer System Passenger Satisfaction Based on AHP-DEMATEL Method[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition,2014,14(1):19-22.
[5]黄明芳,郑建湖.基于AHP和模糊综合评价的BRT乘客满意度分析[J].山东交通学院学报,2017,25(3):44-56.HUANG Ming-fang,ZHENG Jian-hu.Satisfaction Analysis of BRT Passenger Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation[J].Journal of Shandong Jiaotong University,2017,25(3):44-56.
[6]薛兴海,巩丽媛,倪亚洲,等.基于乘客满意度的公交服务水平模糊评价[J].科技和产业,2012,12(5):91-94,102.XUE Xing-hai,GONG Li-yuan,NI Ya-zhou,et al.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Bus Service Levels Based on Passenger Satisfaction[J].Science Technology and Industry,2012,12(5):91-94,102.
[7]张兵,曾明华,陈秋燕,等.基于SEM的城市公交服务质量-满意度-忠诚度研究[J].数理统计与管理,2016,35(2):198-205.ZHANG Bing,ZENG Ming-hua,CHEN Qiu-yan,et al.Study of Urban Public Transport the Service Qualitysatisfaction-loyalty Based on Structural Equation Modeling[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management,2016,35(2):198-205.
[8]季彦婕,周洋,高良鹏,等.基于结构方程模型的乘客出行满意度评价[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2016,14(3):7-12,18.JI Yan-jie,ZHOU Yang,GAO Liang-peng,et al.Evaluation of Passenger Satisfaction Based on Structural Equation Modeling Approach[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2016,14(3):7-12,18.
[9]李琼,马兴慧,朱顺应.基于SEM的公交乘客满意度测评模型[J].物流技术,2016,35(10):78-81,97.LI Qiong,MA Xing-hui,ZHU Shun-ying.Bus Passenger Satisfaction Measurement Model Based on SEM[J].Logistics Technology,2016,35(10):78-81,97.
[10]董琳琳.基于结构方程模型的公交乘客满意度研究:以重庆市为例[D].重庆:重庆大学,2012.DONG Lin-lin.Study of Bus Passengers Satisfaction Based on Structural Equation Model:Taking Chongqing City as an Example[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2012.
[11]HUO Yue-ying,LI Wen-quan,CHEN Qian.Modeling Customer Satisfaction for Bus Rapid Transit in Changzhou,China[J].Journal of Southeast University:English Edition,2016,32(2):233-238.
[12]武钧,霍月英.快速公交乘客满意度影响因素的定量研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(21):219-224.WU Jun,HUO Yue-ying.Quantitative Study on Effect Factors of Passenger Satisfaction for BRT[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2015,51(21):219-224.
[13]NWACHUKWU A.Assessment of Passenger Satisfaction with Intra-city Public Bus Transport Services in Abuja,Nigeria[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2014,17(1):99-119.
[14]AIDOO E N,AGYEMANG W,MONKAH J E,et al.Passenger's Satisfaction with Public Bus Transport Services in Ghana:A Case Study of Kumasi-Accra Route[J].Theoretical&Empirical Researches in Urban Management,2013,8(2):5-17.
[15]OLIVKOVAI.Model for Measuring Passenger Satisfaction and Assessing Mass Transit Quality[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2015,18(3):52-70.
[16]WU J X,YANG M,RASOULI S,et al.Exploring Passenger Assessments of Bus Service Quality Using Bayesian Networks[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2016,19(3):36-54.
[17]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型-方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.WANG Ji-chuan,GUO Zhi-gang.Logistic Regression Model:Method and Application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.
[18]HOSMER D W,LEMESHOW S.Applied Logistic Regression[M].2nd ed.New York:John Wiley&Sons Inc,2000.