基于模矢法的概率积分预计参数解算
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摘要
为了获取准确的沉陷区概率积分预计参数,提出一种基于模矢法的概率积分参数反演方法。该方法以地表沉陷预计模型(概率积分法)为例,建立概率积分参数与地表沉陷的定量关系模型,提出基于模矢法的概率积分参数反演方法,并编制应用程序。朱集煤矿1222工作面工程应用表明:走向线方向上的下沉中误差在±20.85mm之间;沿倾向线方向上的下沉中误差在±14.69mm之间,反演的预计值与实测值大致吻合;得出通过模矢法求解的概率积分法预计参数符合淮南矿区地下采空区沉陷的基本规律。
In order to obtain the accurate prediction parameters of the subsidence area,this paper proposes a method of probability integral parameter inversion based on the template vector method.Taking the surface subsidence prediction model(probability integration method)as an example,the quantitative relationship model between probability integral parameters and surface subsidence is established.The method of probability integral parameter inversion based on model vector method is proposed and the application program is compiled.The application of 1222 working face engineering in Zhuji Coal Mine shows that the error in the sinking direction is±20.85 mm;the error in the sinking direction along the trend line is between ±14.69 mm,and the predicted value and the measured value of the inversion;the values are roughly consistent;the probability integral method of the probability integral method solved by the template method is consistent with the basic law of subsidence of underground goaf in Huainan mining area.This method is of great significance for obtaining the probability integral parameters of Huainan mining area.
In order to obtain the accurate prediction parameters of the subsidence area,this paper proposes a method of probability integral parameter inversion based on the template vector method.Taking the surface subsidence prediction model(probability integration method)as an example,the quantitative relationship model between probability integral parameters and surface subsidence is established.The method of probability integral parameter inversion based on model vector method is proposed and the application program is compiled.The application of 1222 working face engineering in Zhuji Coal Mine shows that the error in the sinking direction is±20.85 mm;the error in the sinking direction along the trend line is between ±14.69 mm,and the predicted value and the measured value of the inversion;the values are roughly consistent;the probability integral method of the probability integral method solved by the template method is consistent with the basic law of subsidence of underground goaf in Huainan mining area.This method is of great significance for obtaining the probability integral parameters of Huainan mining area.
引文
[1]周正薪.浅埋煤层开采岩层移动规律及地表沉陷预测研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2017.
[2]何国清,杨伦,凌赓娣,等.矿山开采沉陷学[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1995.
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[4]杨俊凯,范洪冬,赵伟颖,等.基于D-InSAR技术和灰色Verhulst模型的矿区沉降监测与预计[J].金属矿山,2015(3):143-147.
[5]闫伟涛,陈俊杰,阎跃观.倾斜煤层开采沉陷预计模型的构建[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2018,37(3):12-16.
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[11]冉典,吴捷.模矢法在厚松散层地表移动参数解算中的应用[J].地矿测绘,2014,30(2):25-27,35.
[12]卢继鹰,田亚坤,刘永,等.基于概率积分法的某煤矿地表塌陷区范围预测[J].现代矿业,2016,32(5):167-169,172.
[13]王小华.基于Weibull时间序列函数与负指数法的地表动态沉陷预计方法研究[D].太原:太原理工大学,2016.
[14]牟志华,郭枫.最小二乘及其改进算法在外测数据处理中的应用[J].指挥控制与仿真,2017,39(5):109-112,133.
[15]潘申运.厚松散层开采下地表移动变形预计方法研究[D].淮南:安徽理工大学,2014.
[16]丁胡进.厚松散层下重复开采地表移动变形规律的研究[D].淮南:安徽理工大学,2013.
[17]薄怀志,宋炳忠,李川建,等.概率积分法沉陷预计与参数反演优化算法及实现[J].山东国土资源,2018,34(4):73-77,83.
[2]何国清,杨伦,凌赓娣,等.矿山开采沉陷学[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1995.
[3]方齐,郭广礼,朱晓峻.矿区地表观测站辅助设计与数据处理程序实现[J].金属矿山,2015(5):129-134.
[4]杨俊凯,范洪冬,赵伟颖,等.基于D-InSAR技术和灰色Verhulst模型的矿区沉降监测与预计[J].金属矿山,2015(3):143-147.
[5]闫伟涛,陈俊杰,阎跃观.倾斜煤层开采沉陷预计模型的构建[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2018,37(3):12-16.
[6]李楠,王磊,池深深,等.矿区地表沉陷的D-InSAR监测方法[J].金属矿山,2017(10):23-27.
[7]朱晓峻,郭广礼,方齐.概率积分法预计参数反演方法研究进展[J].金属矿山,2015(4):173-177.
[8]丁磊香.基于抗差自适应拟合推估动态开采沉陷预计方法研究[D].山东:山东理工大学,2010.
[9]夏小刚,黄庆享.基于弹性薄板的不规则采动地表沉陷预计模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2009,20(2):129-132.
[10]钱张书,张伟,叶维楚.坐标转换在矿区地表下沉预测的应用研究[J].矿山测量,2011(4):89-91.
[11]冉典,吴捷.模矢法在厚松散层地表移动参数解算中的应用[J].地矿测绘,2014,30(2):25-27,35.
[12]卢继鹰,田亚坤,刘永,等.基于概率积分法的某煤矿地表塌陷区范围预测[J].现代矿业,2016,32(5):167-169,172.
[13]王小华.基于Weibull时间序列函数与负指数法的地表动态沉陷预计方法研究[D].太原:太原理工大学,2016.
[14]牟志华,郭枫.最小二乘及其改进算法在外测数据处理中的应用[J].指挥控制与仿真,2017,39(5):109-112,133.
[15]潘申运.厚松散层开采下地表移动变形预计方法研究[D].淮南:安徽理工大学,2014.
[16]丁胡进.厚松散层下重复开采地表移动变形规律的研究[D].淮南:安徽理工大学,2013.
[17]薄怀志,宋炳忠,李川建,等.概率积分法沉陷预计与参数反演优化算法及实现[J].山东国土资源,2018,34(4):73-77,83.