中国地级以上城市二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析:基于扩展的STIRPAT模型
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摘要
中国不同城市在发展阶段、经济结构、气候条件、人口结构等都存在明显的差异,不同城市二氧化碳排放的主要影响因素及其影响程度也各不相同。本文基于最新的城市尺度二氧化碳排放数据库CHRED及CHRED2.0,通过加入产业结构、城市化和气候差异等因素,对传统STIRPAT模型进行扩展,考察了中国地级以上城市二氧化碳排放的影响因素。结果显示:人口规模、第二产业产值占比和采暖需求的增长都会显著提高一个城市的二氧化碳排放,同时部分城市二氧化碳排放会随着富裕程度的上升呈现先增加后减少的趋势,但城镇化率对二氧化碳排放的影响具有不确定性。从全国样本来看,2005年和2012年人口因素变化对碳排放影响变化较小,维持在0.7左右;气候因素的变化对碳排放的影响从2005年的0.288 1下降为2012年的0.000 2;第二产业产值比重变化的影响从2005年的0.744 2上升到2012年0.979 5;同时碳排放量与人均GDP在2005年存在倒U型关系,但到2012年这种关系不再显著。除了针对全国尺度的分析外,本研究还依据城市人口规模进行分组研究,并在此基础上进一步进行分位数回归,进而识别出不同规模城市二氧化碳排放量的影响因素差异。今后在制定城市节能减排政策对城市二氧化碳排放量进行管理的过程中,决策者需要在把握关键影响因子的前提下依据城市自身特点做到因地制宜、区别对待。
There are great differences in development stage,economic structure,climatic conditions and population structure for cities in China. Therefore,the driving forces and the degree of impact on carbon dioxide emissions are also different. Based on the latest urban scale CO2 emission database CHRED and CHRED2. 0,this paper extended the traditional STIRPAT model by adding factors such as industrial structure,urbanization and climate differences,and investigates the driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions in cities above prefecture level in China. The results show that the growth of population size,output share of the secondary industry and heating demand will significantly increase a city's carbon dioxide emissions,while some cities' carbon dioxide emissions will increase first and then decrease with the increase of wealth,but impact of the urbanization rate change on carbon dioxide emissions has an uncertainty.For the national sample,it found that the impact of changes in population size on carbon emissions is steady in 2005 and 2012,around0. 7. The impact of changes in climate difference on carbon emissions has dropped from 0. 288 1 in 2005 to 0. 000 2 in 2012. The impact of changes in the output share of the secondary industry rose from 0. 744 2 in 2005 to 0. 979 5 in 2012. There is an inverted Ushaped relationship of carbon emissions and per capita GDP in 2005,but it was not significant in 2012. In addition to the analysis of the national scale,by categorizing the cities based on population size and exploring the quantile regression,the three groups show heterogeneity in terms of their driving forces of carbon dioxide emission. In the future,in the process of formulating urban energy conservation and emission reduction policies for the management of urban carbon dioxide emissions,policymakers need to adapt to the local characteristics and differentiate them according to the characteristics of the city on the premise of grasping the key impact factors.
There are great differences in development stage,economic structure,climatic conditions and population structure for cities in China. Therefore,the driving forces and the degree of impact on carbon dioxide emissions are also different. Based on the latest urban scale CO2 emission database CHRED and CHRED2. 0,this paper extended the traditional STIRPAT model by adding factors such as industrial structure,urbanization and climate differences,and investigates the driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions in cities above prefecture level in China. The results show that the growth of population size,output share of the secondary industry and heating demand will significantly increase a city's carbon dioxide emissions,while some cities' carbon dioxide emissions will increase first and then decrease with the increase of wealth,but impact of the urbanization rate change on carbon dioxide emissions has an uncertainty.For the national sample,it found that the impact of changes in population size on carbon emissions is steady in 2005 and 2012,around0. 7. The impact of changes in climate difference on carbon emissions has dropped from 0. 288 1 in 2005 to 0. 000 2 in 2012. The impact of changes in the output share of the secondary industry rose from 0. 744 2 in 2005 to 0. 979 5 in 2012. There is an inverted Ushaped relationship of carbon emissions and per capita GDP in 2005,but it was not significant in 2012. In addition to the analysis of the national scale,by categorizing the cities based on population size and exploring the quantile regression,the three groups show heterogeneity in terms of their driving forces of carbon dioxide emission. In the future,in the process of formulating urban energy conservation and emission reduction policies for the management of urban carbon dioxide emissions,policymakers need to adapt to the local characteristics and differentiate them according to the characteristics of the city on the premise of grasping the key impact factors.
引文
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[11]EHRLICH P R,HOLDREN J P.The people problem[J].Saturday review,1970(4):42-43.
[12]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1997,94(1):175-9.
[13]YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T.STIRPAT,IPAT and Im PACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J].Ecological economics,2003,46(3):351-365.
[14]DIETZ T,FRANK K A,WHITLEY C T,et al.Political influences on greenhouse gas emissions from US states[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2015,112(27):8254-8259.
[15]LIU Y,CHEN Z M,XIAO H,et al.Driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions in China:an empirical study using 2006-2010provincial data[J].Frontiers of earth science,2017,11(1):156-161.
[16]渠慎宁,郭朝先.基于STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放峰值预测研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(12):10-15.[QUShenning,GUO Chaoxian.Forecast of China’s carbon emission based on STIRPAT Model[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(12):10-15.]
[17]李国志,李宗植.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异和影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(5):22-27.[LIGuozhi,LI Zongzhi.Regional difference and influence factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(5):22-27.]
[18]杨骞,刘华军.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异分解及影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(5):36-49.[YANGQian,LIU Huajun.Regional difference decomposition and influence factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions[J].The journal of quantitative&technical economics,2012(5):36-49.]
[19]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):98-102.[ZHU Qin,PENG Xizhe,LU Zhiming,et al.Analysis model and empirical study of impacts from population and consumption on carbon emissions[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(2):98-102.]
[20]MA M,YAN R,CAI W.An extended STIRPAT Model-based methodology for evaluating the driving forces affecting carbon emissions in existing public building sector:evidence from China in2000-2015[J].Natural hazards,2017,89(2):741-756.
[21]WANG Y,YANG G,DONG Y,et al.The scale,structure and influencing factors of total carbon emissions from households in 30provinces of China:based on the extended STIRPAT Model[J].Energies,2018,11(5):1-25.
[22]刘满芝,刘贤贤.基于STIRPAT模型的中国城镇生活能源消费影响因素研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(8):1111-1122.[LIU Manzhi,LIU Xianxian.Study on the influencing factors of urban household energy consumption in China based on STIRPAT Model[J].Resource and environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(8):1111-1122.]
[23]蔡博峰,刘晓曼,陆军,等.2005年中国城市CO2排放数据集[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):1-7.[CAIBofeng,LIU Xiaoman,LU Jun,et al.China city CO2emission in2005[J].China population,resources and environment,2018,28(4):1-7.]
[24]蔡博峰,王金南,杨姝影,等.中国城市CO2排放数据集研究---基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(2):1-4.[CAI Bofeng,WANG Jinnan,YANG Shuying,et al.China city CO2emission dataset:based on the China high resolution emission gridded data[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(2):1-4.]
[25]POUMANYVONG U P,KANEKO S.Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2emissions?a cross-country analysis[J].Ecological economics,2010,70(2):434-444.
[26]LIDDLE B,LUNG S.Age-structure,urbanization,and climate change in developed countries:revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts[J].Population&environment,2010,31(5):317-343.
[27]许广月,宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究---基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2010(5):37-47.[XU Guangyue,SONG Deyong.An empirical study of the environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions:based on provincial panel data[J].China industrial economics,2010(5):37-47.]
[28]邵帅,杨莉莉,曹建华.工业能源消费碳排放影响因素研究---基于STIRPAT模型的上海分行业动态面板数据实证分析[J].财经研究,2010,36(11):16-27.[SHAO Shuai,YANG Lili,CAO Jianhua.Study on influencing factors of CO2emissions from industrial energy consumption:an empirical analysis based on STIRPAT Model and industrial sectors’dynamic panel data in Shanghai[J].Journal of finance and economics,2010,36(11):16-27.]
[29]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴2006[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006.[Department of Urban Social And Economic Investigation Of The National Bureau of Statistics.China city statistical yearbook 2006[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2006.]
[2]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.[LIN Boqiang,LIU Xiying.China’s carbon dioxide emissions under the urbanization process:influence factors and abatement policies[J].Economic research journal,2010(8):66-78.]
[3]李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(8):80-86.[LI Bo,ZHANG Junbiao,LI Haipeng.Research on spatial-temporal characteristics and affecting factors decomposition of agricultural carbon emission in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2011,21(8):80-86.]
[4]ANG B W,ZHANG F Q,CHOI K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[5]ANG B W,SU B.Carbon emission intensity in electricity production:a global analysis[J].Energy policy,2016,94:56-63.
[6]LIU L C,FAN Y,WU G,et al.Using LMDI Method to analyze the change of China’s industrial CO2emissions from final fuel use:an empirical analysis[J].Energy policy,2007,35(11):5892-5900.
[7]宋德勇,卢忠宝.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(3):18-24.[SONGDeyong,LU Zhongbao.The factor decomposition and periodic fluctuation of carbon emission in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2009,19(3):18-24.]
[8]许士春,习蓉,何正霞.中国能源消耗碳排放的影响因素分析及政策启示[J].资源科学,2012,34(1):2-12.[XU Shichun,XI Rong,HE Zhengxia.Influential factors and policy implications of carbon emissions for energy consumption in China[J].Resource science,2012,34(1):2-12.]
[9]ZHANG Y J,DA Y B.The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2015,41:1255-1266.
[10]LIN B,TAN R.Sustainable development of China’s energy intensive industries:from the aspect of carbon dioxide emissions reduction[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2017,77:386-394.
[11]EHRLICH P R,HOLDREN J P.The people problem[J].Saturday review,1970(4):42-43.
[12]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1997,94(1):175-9.
[13]YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T.STIRPAT,IPAT and Im PACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J].Ecological economics,2003,46(3):351-365.
[14]DIETZ T,FRANK K A,WHITLEY C T,et al.Political influences on greenhouse gas emissions from US states[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2015,112(27):8254-8259.
[15]LIU Y,CHEN Z M,XIAO H,et al.Driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions in China:an empirical study using 2006-2010provincial data[J].Frontiers of earth science,2017,11(1):156-161.
[16]渠慎宁,郭朝先.基于STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放峰值预测研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(12):10-15.[QUShenning,GUO Chaoxian.Forecast of China’s carbon emission based on STIRPAT Model[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(12):10-15.]
[17]李国志,李宗植.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异和影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(5):22-27.[LIGuozhi,LI Zongzhi.Regional difference and influence factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(5):22-27.]
[18]杨骞,刘华军.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异分解及影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(5):36-49.[YANGQian,LIU Huajun.Regional difference decomposition and influence factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions[J].The journal of quantitative&technical economics,2012(5):36-49.]
[19]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):98-102.[ZHU Qin,PENG Xizhe,LU Zhiming,et al.Analysis model and empirical study of impacts from population and consumption on carbon emissions[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(2):98-102.]
[20]MA M,YAN R,CAI W.An extended STIRPAT Model-based methodology for evaluating the driving forces affecting carbon emissions in existing public building sector:evidence from China in2000-2015[J].Natural hazards,2017,89(2):741-756.
[21]WANG Y,YANG G,DONG Y,et al.The scale,structure and influencing factors of total carbon emissions from households in 30provinces of China:based on the extended STIRPAT Model[J].Energies,2018,11(5):1-25.
[22]刘满芝,刘贤贤.基于STIRPAT模型的中国城镇生活能源消费影响因素研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(8):1111-1122.[LIU Manzhi,LIU Xianxian.Study on the influencing factors of urban household energy consumption in China based on STIRPAT Model[J].Resource and environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(8):1111-1122.]
[23]蔡博峰,刘晓曼,陆军,等.2005年中国城市CO2排放数据集[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):1-7.[CAIBofeng,LIU Xiaoman,LU Jun,et al.China city CO2emission in2005[J].China population,resources and environment,2018,28(4):1-7.]
[24]蔡博峰,王金南,杨姝影,等.中国城市CO2排放数据集研究---基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(2):1-4.[CAI Bofeng,WANG Jinnan,YANG Shuying,et al.China city CO2emission dataset:based on the China high resolution emission gridded data[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(2):1-4.]
[25]POUMANYVONG U P,KANEKO S.Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2emissions?a cross-country analysis[J].Ecological economics,2010,70(2):434-444.
[26]LIDDLE B,LUNG S.Age-structure,urbanization,and climate change in developed countries:revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts[J].Population&environment,2010,31(5):317-343.
[27]许广月,宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究---基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2010(5):37-47.[XU Guangyue,SONG Deyong.An empirical study of the environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions:based on provincial panel data[J].China industrial economics,2010(5):37-47.]
[28]邵帅,杨莉莉,曹建华.工业能源消费碳排放影响因素研究---基于STIRPAT模型的上海分行业动态面板数据实证分析[J].财经研究,2010,36(11):16-27.[SHAO Shuai,YANG Lili,CAO Jianhua.Study on influencing factors of CO2emissions from industrial energy consumption:an empirical analysis based on STIRPAT Model and industrial sectors’dynamic panel data in Shanghai[J].Journal of finance and economics,2010,36(11):16-27.]
[29]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴2006[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006.[Department of Urban Social And Economic Investigation Of The National Bureau of Statistics.China city statistical yearbook 2006[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2006.]