基于TRMM降水数据的陕西省干旱分析
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摘要
针对气象站点观测数据不能测量大范围区域降水量的情况,以陕西省为研究区,以其境内20个气象站点的实测降水量为"真值",采用一元线性分析法分别在月尺度和年尺度上验证TRMM 3B43(热带卫星降水数据)与实测降水量的一致性.以Pa指数(降水距平百分率)作为评价干旱的指标,分析2007—2016年陕西省干旱发生的分布情况.研究表明:TRMM 3B43能够较为准确的表示陕西省的降水量情况;陕西省的降水量分布大体呈现南多北少,且大部分降水集中在6—9月份,11月—次年3月降水量较少;陕西省存在较为明显的干旱化趋势;陕北地区干旱情况发生较为频繁,干旱发生频率在80%以上,干旱面积明显大于关中以及陕南地区.
In view of the fact that observational data of meteorological stations can not measure the precipitation over a large area,this paper takes Shaanxi Province as the research area and the actual precipitation of 20 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province as the true value. Uniform linear analysis is used to verify the consistency of TRMM3 B43(tropical satellite precipitation data)and measured the precipitation on the monthly and annual scales. And we use the index of Pa(precipitation anomaly index)as the evaluation index of drought to analyze the distribution of Shaanxi Province drought which is happened from 2007 to 2016. The result shows that TRMM 3 B43 can accurately represent the precipitation in Shaanxi Province. The precipitation in Shaanxi Province is generally more in the south than in the north. Most of the precipitation are happened in June to September and few of them happened from November to next March. There is an obvious tendency of drought in Shaanxi Province. We find the drought is more frequent in northern Shaanxi with a frequency of more than 80%. And the drought area is significantly larger than that in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi.
In view of the fact that observational data of meteorological stations can not measure the precipitation over a large area,this paper takes Shaanxi Province as the research area and the actual precipitation of 20 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province as the true value. Uniform linear analysis is used to verify the consistency of TRMM3 B43(tropical satellite precipitation data)and measured the precipitation on the monthly and annual scales. And we use the index of Pa(precipitation anomaly index)as the evaluation index of drought to analyze the distribution of Shaanxi Province drought which is happened from 2007 to 2016. The result shows that TRMM 3 B43 can accurately represent the precipitation in Shaanxi Province. The precipitation in Shaanxi Province is generally more in the south than in the north. Most of the precipitation are happened in June to September and few of them happened from November to next March. There is an obvious tendency of drought in Shaanxi Province. We find the drought is more frequent in northern Shaanxi with a frequency of more than 80%. And the drought area is significantly larger than that in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi.
引文
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[13]刘俊峰,陈仁升,韩春坛,等.多卫星遥感降水数据精度评价[J].水科学进展,2010,21(3):343-348.
[14] ZARCH M A A,SIVAKUMAR B,SHARMA A. Droughts in a warming climate:a global assessment of standardized precipitation index(SPI)and reconnaissance drought index(RDI)[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:183-195.
[15]王明田,王翔,黄晚华,等.基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(19):85-92.
[2]梁进秋,任璞,郭雪梅,等.大同市气象干旱变化趋势分析[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(3):488-492.
[3]韦开,王全九,周蓓蓓,等.基于降水距平百分率的陕西省干旱时空分布特征[J].水土保持学报,2017,31(1):318-322.
[4] MISHRA A K,DESAI V R. Drought forecasting using stochastic models[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2005,19(5):326-339.
[5]王富强,王雷.基于降水距平百分率的河南省干旱特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(12):84-88.
[6]格桑,苏雪燕,普布卓玛.降水距平百分率在西藏干旱判定中的验证[J].西藏科技,2009(2):60-62.
[7]吴建峰,谭燕,安佑志,等.基于降水距平百分率的重庆市干旱特征分析[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(18):127-130.
[8]郝振纯,童凯,张磊磊,等. TRMM 3B43降水资料在青藏高原的适用性分析[J].水文,2011,31(5):18-23.
[9]陈诚,赵书河.基于TRMM 3B43降水数据的中国黄淮海地区干旱监测分析[J].国土资源遥感,2016,28(1):122-129.
[10]吕洋,杨胜天,蔡明勇,等. TRMM卫星降水数据在雅鲁藏布江流域的适用性分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1414-1425.
[11]王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与展望[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):60-65.
[12]韩海涛,胡文超,陈学君,等. 3种气象干旱指标的应用比较研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(1):237-241.
[13]刘俊峰,陈仁升,韩春坛,等.多卫星遥感降水数据精度评价[J].水科学进展,2010,21(3):343-348.
[14] ZARCH M A A,SIVAKUMAR B,SHARMA A. Droughts in a warming climate:a global assessment of standardized precipitation index(SPI)and reconnaissance drought index(RDI)[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:183-195.
[15]王明田,王翔,黄晚华,等.基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(19):85-92.