基于结构路径分析的中国居民消费对碳排放的拉动作用研究
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摘要
在投入产出法的基础上,采用结构路径分析的方法,研究2012年中国城乡居民消费对碳排放的拉动作用。结果显示,2012年城乡居民消费碳排放以间接排放为主,拉动作用靠前的路径有电力、热力生产和供应业,其他服务业,农、林、牧、渔、水利业,食品制造业,批发、零售业和住宿餐饮业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业。由于使用化肥、农药和饲料造成农业的碳排放较为突出,所以农业政策应合理地限制这类化学制品的使用,以期减少"化学原料和化学制品制造业"部门因制造化肥农药所排放的CO_2。研究结果还表明,收入水平及消费结构的差异是造成城乡居民消费碳排放量的重要因素。
Based on environmental input-output analysis, the authors try to identify the impetus of Chinese household consumption of carbon emissions in structural path analysis(SPA). The results indicate that, in 2012, most of the carbon emissions of Chinese household are indirect emissions, mainly from power, services, agriculture, food, wholesale and retail, transportation, postal. Carbons emissions from fertilizer and pesticide production in chemistry contribute a lot to the agricultural sector, therefore agricultural policies should properly limit the use of those chemical productions to reduce the emission. In addition, the difference of the income and consumption structure between urban and rural residents is the key factors which lead to the gap between of their carbon emission.
Based on environmental input-output analysis, the authors try to identify the impetus of Chinese household consumption of carbon emissions in structural path analysis(SPA). The results indicate that, in 2012, most of the carbon emissions of Chinese household are indirect emissions, mainly from power, services, agriculture, food, wholesale and retail, transportation, postal. Carbons emissions from fertilizer and pesticide production in chemistry contribute a lot to the agricultural sector, therefore agricultural policies should properly limit the use of those chemical productions to reduce the emission. In addition, the difference of the income and consumption structure between urban and rural residents is the key factors which lead to the gap between of their carbon emission.
引文
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[12]朱勤,彭希哲,吴开亚.基于投入产出模型的居民消费品载能碳排放测算与分析.自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2018-2029
[13]叶震.投入产出数据更新方法及其在碳排放分析中的应用.统计与信息论坛,2012,27(9):39-44
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[16]Ala-Mantila S,Ottelina J,Heinonen J,et al.To each their own?The greenhouse gas impacts of intrahousehold sharing in different urban zones.Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,135:356-367
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[18]姚亮,刘晶茹,王如松.中国居民消费隐含的碳排放量变化的驱动因素.生态学报,2011,31(19):5632-5637
[19]Wang Z,Liu W,Yin J.Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China:an input-output decomposition analysis.Natural Hazards,2015,75(S2):257-272
[20]Lenzen M,Murray J.Conceptualising environmental responsibility.Ecological Economics,2010,70(2):261-270
[21]王芳.人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的路径分析.人口与经济,2013(3):12-19
[22]袁小慧,范金.收入对居民消费影响的结构性路径分析:江苏案例.数学的实践与认识,2010,40(1):32-43
[23]Meng J,Liu J,Xu Y,et al.Tracing Primary PM2.5emissions via Chinese supply chains.Environmental Research Letters,2015,5(10):No.054005
[24]Nagashima F.Critical structural paths of residential PM2.5 emissions within the Chinese provinces.Energy Economics,2018,70:465-471
[25]Yang Z,Dong W,Xiu J,et al.Structural path analysis of fossil fuel based CO2 emissions:a case study for China.PLoS One,2015,10(9):e0135727
[26]Leontief W.Environmental repercussions and the economic structure:an input-output approach.The Review of Economics and Statistics,1970,52(3):262-271
[27]Miller R E,Blair P D.Input-output analysis:foundations and extentions.Englewood Cliffs,New Jersey:Prentice Hall,1984
[28]Defourny J,Thorbecke E.Structural path analysis and multiplier decomposition within a social accounting matrix framework.The Economic Journal,1984,94:111-136
[29]IPCC.IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Kanagawa:Institute For Global Environmental Strategies,2006
[30]刘起运,彭志龙.中国1992-2005年可比价投入产出序列表及分析.北京:中国统计出版社,2010
[31]Weber C L,Peters G P,Guan D,et al.The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change.Energy Policy,2008,36(9):3572-3577
[32]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2013.北京:中国统计出版社,2013
[33]Weber C L,Matthews H S.Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint.Ecological Economics,2008,66:379-391
[34]董会娟,耿涌.基于投入产出分析的北京市居民消费碳足迹研究.资源科学,2012,34(3):494-501
[35]沈家文,刘中伟.促进中国居民服务消费的影响因素分析.经济与管理研究,2013(1):53-58
(1)为了使投入产出表的部门分类与能源统计年鉴数据中的部门分类一致,本文根据《国民经济产业分类和代码标准》(GB/T4754—2017)、中国2012年139部门投入产出表和中国能源统计年鉴2013,将国民经济部门合并为45个部门。
[2]马晓微,杜佳,叶奕,等.中美居民消费直接碳排放核算及比较.北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):34-40
[3]Bin S,Dowlatabadi H.Corrigendum to“consumer lifestyles approach to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions”.Energy Policy,2005,33(10):197-208
[4]Ding Qun,Cai Wenjia,Wang Can.Impact of household consumption activities on energy consumption in China-evidence from the lifestyle perspective and input-output analysis//The 8th International Conference on Applied Energy.Beijing,2017:3384-3390
[5]范玲,汪东.我国居民间接能源消费碳排放的测算及分解分析.生态经济,2014,30(7):28-32
[6]Xu X,Han L,Lv X.Household carbon inequality in urban China,its sources and determinants.Ecological Economics,2016,128:77-86
[7]丰霞,智瑞芝,董雪旺.浙江省居民消费间接碳足迹测算及影响因素研究.生态经济,2018,34(3):23-30
[8]刘晔,刘丹,张林秀.中国省域城镇居民碳排放驱动因素分析.地理科学,2016,36(5):691-696
[9]王雪松,任胜钢,袁宝龙,等.城镇化、城乡消费比例和结构对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响.经济理论与经济管理,2016(8):79-88
[10]Lenzen M,Schaeffer R.Environmental and social accounting for Brazil.Energy Economics,2004,27(2):201-226
[11]Sommer M,Kratena K.The carbon footprint of European households and income distribution.Ecological Economics,2017(136):62-72
[12]朱勤,彭希哲,吴开亚.基于投入产出模型的居民消费品载能碳排放测算与分析.自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2018-2029
[13]叶震.投入产出数据更新方法及其在碳排放分析中的应用.统计与信息论坛,2012,27(9):39-44
[14]Druckman A,Jackson T.The carbon footprint of UKhouseholds 1990-2004:a socio-economically disaggregated,quasi-multi-regional input-output model.Ecological Economics,2009,68(7):2066-2077
[15]姚亮,刘晶茹,王如松,等.基于多区域投入产出(MRIO)的中国区域居民消费碳足迹分析.环境科学学报,2013,33(7):2050-2058
[16]Ala-Mantila S,Ottelina J,Heinonen J,et al.To each their own?The greenhouse gas impacts of intrahousehold sharing in different urban zones.Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,135:356-367
[17]刘晶茹,Peters G P,王如松,等.综合生命周期分析在可持续消费研究中的应用.生态学报,2007,27(12):5331-5336
[18]姚亮,刘晶茹,王如松.中国居民消费隐含的碳排放量变化的驱动因素.生态学报,2011,31(19):5632-5637
[19]Wang Z,Liu W,Yin J.Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China:an input-output decomposition analysis.Natural Hazards,2015,75(S2):257-272
[20]Lenzen M,Murray J.Conceptualising environmental responsibility.Ecological Economics,2010,70(2):261-270
[21]王芳.人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的路径分析.人口与经济,2013(3):12-19
[22]袁小慧,范金.收入对居民消费影响的结构性路径分析:江苏案例.数学的实践与认识,2010,40(1):32-43
[23]Meng J,Liu J,Xu Y,et al.Tracing Primary PM2.5emissions via Chinese supply chains.Environmental Research Letters,2015,5(10):No.054005
[24]Nagashima F.Critical structural paths of residential PM2.5 emissions within the Chinese provinces.Energy Economics,2018,70:465-471
[25]Yang Z,Dong W,Xiu J,et al.Structural path analysis of fossil fuel based CO2 emissions:a case study for China.PLoS One,2015,10(9):e0135727
[26]Leontief W.Environmental repercussions and the economic structure:an input-output approach.The Review of Economics and Statistics,1970,52(3):262-271
[27]Miller R E,Blair P D.Input-output analysis:foundations and extentions.Englewood Cliffs,New Jersey:Prentice Hall,1984
[28]Defourny J,Thorbecke E.Structural path analysis and multiplier decomposition within a social accounting matrix framework.The Economic Journal,1984,94:111-136
[29]IPCC.IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Kanagawa:Institute For Global Environmental Strategies,2006
[30]刘起运,彭志龙.中国1992-2005年可比价投入产出序列表及分析.北京:中国统计出版社,2010
[31]Weber C L,Peters G P,Guan D,et al.The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change.Energy Policy,2008,36(9):3572-3577
[32]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2013.北京:中国统计出版社,2013
[33]Weber C L,Matthews H S.Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint.Ecological Economics,2008,66:379-391
[34]董会娟,耿涌.基于投入产出分析的北京市居民消费碳足迹研究.资源科学,2012,34(3):494-501
[35]沈家文,刘中伟.促进中国居民服务消费的影响因素分析.经济与管理研究,2013(1):53-58
(1)为了使投入产出表的部门分类与能源统计年鉴数据中的部门分类一致,本文根据《国民经济产业分类和代码标准》(GB/T4754—2017)、中国2012年139部门投入产出表和中国能源统计年鉴2013,将国民经济部门合并为45个部门。