基于多区域模式集合的中国西部干旱区极端温度未来预估
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摘要
利用CORDEX-EA计划11个区域模式模拟结果,集合预估了中国西部干旱区16个极端温度指数未来的变化趋势及空间分布。结果表明:1)区域模式基本上能够再现近30 a西部干旱区极端温度的空间分布。2)多模式集合预估的西部干旱区21世纪中期霜冻日数(FD)和冰封日数(ID)呈现显著的下降趋势,而热夜日数(TR)和夏季日数(SU)则呈现明显的上升趋势。3)未来异常暖昼持续指数(WSDI)和生长期(GSL)呈现增加趋势,异常冷昼持续指数(CSDI)和日较差(DTR)则呈现下降趋势。4)未来气候增温导致冷昼日数(TX90p)、暖夜日数(TN90p)增加,而暖昼日数(TX10p)和冷夜日数(TN10p)减少。5)未来月最高温度极大值(TXx)、月最低温度极大值(TNx)、月最高温度极小值(TXn)和月最低温度极小值(TNn)都呈现增加的趋势。因此,西部干旱区未来发生极端低温事件的概率减小,发生极端高温事件的概率则会增大,但不同的极端温度指数变化的空间分布并不均一,存在明显的区域差异。
In this study, the spatial and temporal changes of future extreme temperature over northwestern China was evaluated using 11 regional climate models in the context of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for East Asia( CORDEX-EA) project.The main findings are as follows: 1) The regional climate models could reproduce the spatial distribution of extreme temperature over northwestern China.2) The multi-model ensembles indicate that the FD and ID will decrease,while the TR and SU will increase in the 21 st century over northwestern China.3) The WSDI and GSL of northwestern China show increasing trend,while the CSDI and DTR show decreasing trend in the 21 st century.4) Due to the increase of temperature,TX90p and TN90p will increase,while TX10p and TN10p will decrease in the future.5) TXx,TNx,TXn and TNn show an increasing trend in the 21 st century.Therefore, in the future, the probability of cold extreme events will decrease,and the probability of warm extreme events will increase,along with distinct spatial heterogeneity.
In this study, the spatial and temporal changes of future extreme temperature over northwestern China was evaluated using 11 regional climate models in the context of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for East Asia( CORDEX-EA) project.The main findings are as follows: 1) The regional climate models could reproduce the spatial distribution of extreme temperature over northwestern China.2) The multi-model ensembles indicate that the FD and ID will decrease,while the TR and SU will increase in the 21 st century over northwestern China.3) The WSDI and GSL of northwestern China show increasing trend,while the CSDI and DTR show decreasing trend in the 21 st century.4) Due to the increase of temperature,TX90p and TN90p will increase,while TX10p and TN10p will decrease in the future.5) TXx,TNx,TXn and TNn show an increasing trend in the 21 st century.Therefore, in the future, the probability of cold extreme events will decrease,and the probability of warm extreme events will increase,along with distinct spatial heterogeneity.
引文
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Park C,Min S K,Lee D,et al.,2016.Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia[J].Clim Dyn,46(7/8):2 469-2 486.
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A,2012.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,93(4):485-498.
Wang H J,Yu E T,Yang S,2011.An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China:large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCARWRF model[J].Meteorol Atmos Phys,113(1/2):11-25.
吴昊旻,黄安宁,何清,等,2013.10个CMIP5模式预估中亚地区未来50 a降水时空变化特征[J],干旱区地理,36(4):669-679.Wu H W,Huang A N,He Q,et al,2013.Projection of the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over Central Asia of 10 CMIP5 model in the next 50 years[J],Arid Land Geography,36(4):669-679.(in Chinese).
吴佳,高学杰,2013.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比,地球物理学报,56(4):1102-1111.Wu J,Gao X J,2013,Agridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets[J],Chinese Journal Geophysics,56(4):1102-1111.(in Chinese).
吴佳,高学杰,石英,等,2011.新疆21世纪气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J],冰川冻土,33(3):479-488.Wu J,Gao X J,Shi Y,et al.,2011.Climate change over Xinjiang region in the 21 century simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,33(3):479-488.(in Chinese).
Xu C H,Xu Y,2012a.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):527-533.
Xu Y,Xu C H,2012b.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):489-494.
Xu Y,Gao X J,Shen Y,et al.,2009.A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation[J].Adv Atmos Sci,26(4):763-772.
姚遥,罗勇,黄建斌,2012.8个CMIP5模式对中国极端气温的模拟和预估[J].气候变化研究进展,8(4):250-256.Yao Y,Luo Y,Huang J B,2012.Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on 8 modeling data from CMIP5[J].Adv Climate Change Res,8(4):250-256.(in Chinese).
Yu E T,2018.A warmer,wetter and less windy China in the twenty-first century as projected by a nested high-resolution simulation using the weather research and forecasting(WRF)model[J].Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci,DOI:10.1007/s13143-018-0072-5.
Yu E T,Wang H J,Sun J Q,2010.A quick report on a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,3(6):325-329.
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.,2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:climatology and extremes[J].Clim Dyn,45(7/8):2013-2031.
于恩涛,孙建奇,吕光辉,等,2015.西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估[J],干旱区地理,38:429-437.Yu E T,Sun J Q,Lv G H,et al.,2015.High-resolution projection of future climate change in the northwestern arid regions of China[J],Arid Land Geography,38:429-437.(in Chinese).
Zhang Y,2012.Projections of 2.0℃Warming over the Globe and China under RCP4.5[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):514-520.
Zhou B T,Wen Q H,Xu Y,et al.,2014.Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles[J].J Climate,27(17):6591-6611.
陈活泼,2013.CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估[J].科学通报,58(8):743-752.Chen H P,2013.Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(8):743-752.(in Chinese).
Chen H P,Sun J Q,2013.Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario[J].Meteorol Atmos Phys,121(1/2):55-77.
Chen H P,Sun J Q,Chen X L,2013.Future changes of drought and flood events in China under a global warming scenario[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,6(1):8-13.
Chen H P,Sun J Q,2015.Assessing model performance of climate extremes in China:an intercomparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3[J].Climatic Change,129(1/2):197-211.
陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等,2014.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,69(9):1295-1304.Chen Y N,Li Z,Fan Y T,et al.,2014.Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,69(9):1295-1304.(in Chinese).
高学杰,石英,Filippo Giorgi,2010.中国区域气候变化的一个高分辨率数值模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,40(7):911-922.Gao X J,Shi Y,Giorgi F,2010.A high resolution simulation of climate change over China[J],Chinese Science Bulletin,40(7):911-922.(in Chinese).
Gao X,Shi Y,Zhang D,et al.,2012.Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China:results from two high-resolution RCM simulations[J].Clim Res,52:213-226.
Gao X J,Wang M L,Giorgi F,2013.Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCC_SM1.1-RegCM4.0[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,6(5):381-386.
Gao X J,Wu J,Shi Y,et al.,2018.Future changes in thermal comfort conditions over China based on multi-RegCM4 simulations[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,11(4):291-299.
Giorgi F,Coppola E,Raffaele F,et al.,2014.Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections[J].Climatic Change,125(1):39-51.
Huang J P,Yu H,Guan X,et al.,2016.Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,6(2):166-172.
IPCC,2013.Climate Change 2013:The physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
姜大膀,田芝平,2013.21世纪东亚季风变化:CMIP3和CMIP5模式预估结果[J].科学通报,58(8):707-716.Jiang D B,Tian Z P,2013.East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century:results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(8):707-716.(in Chinese).
Karl T R,Nicholls N,Ghazi A,1999.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes:workshop summary[J].Climatic Change,42:3-7.
李忠勤,李开明,王林,2010.新疆冰川近期变化及其对水资源的影响研究[J].第四纪研究,30(1):96-106.Li Z Q,Li K M,Wang L,2010.Study on recent glacier changes and their impact on water resources in Xinjiang,north western China[J].Quaternary Sciences,30(1):96-106.(in Chinese).
刘波,冯锦明,马柱国,等,2009.1960-2005年新疆气候变化的基本特征[J].气候与环境研究,14(4):414-426.Liu B,Feng J M,Ma Z G,et al.,2009.Characteristics of climate changes in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2005[J].Climatic Environ Res,14(4):414-426.(in Chinese).
刘时银,丁永建,李晶,等,2006.中国西部冰川对近期气候变暖的响应[J].第四纪研究,26(5):762-771.Liu S Y,Ding Y J,Li J,et al.,2006.Glaciers in response to recent climate warming in western China[J].Quaternary Sciences,26(5):762-771.(in Chinese).
Park C,Min S K,Lee D,et al.,2016.Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia[J].Clim Dyn,46(7/8):2 469-2 486.
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A,2012.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,93(4):485-498.
Wang H J,Yu E T,Yang S,2011.An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China:large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCARWRF model[J].Meteorol Atmos Phys,113(1/2):11-25.
吴昊旻,黄安宁,何清,等,2013.10个CMIP5模式预估中亚地区未来50 a降水时空变化特征[J],干旱区地理,36(4):669-679.Wu H W,Huang A N,He Q,et al,2013.Projection of the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over Central Asia of 10 CMIP5 model in the next 50 years[J],Arid Land Geography,36(4):669-679.(in Chinese).
吴佳,高学杰,2013.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比,地球物理学报,56(4):1102-1111.Wu J,Gao X J,2013,Agridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets[J],Chinese Journal Geophysics,56(4):1102-1111.(in Chinese).
吴佳,高学杰,石英,等,2011.新疆21世纪气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J],冰川冻土,33(3):479-488.Wu J,Gao X J,Shi Y,et al.,2011.Climate change over Xinjiang region in the 21 century simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,33(3):479-488.(in Chinese).
Xu C H,Xu Y,2012a.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):527-533.
Xu Y,Xu C H,2012b.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):489-494.
Xu Y,Gao X J,Shen Y,et al.,2009.A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation[J].Adv Atmos Sci,26(4):763-772.
姚遥,罗勇,黄建斌,2012.8个CMIP5模式对中国极端气温的模拟和预估[J].气候变化研究进展,8(4):250-256.Yao Y,Luo Y,Huang J B,2012.Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on 8 modeling data from CMIP5[J].Adv Climate Change Res,8(4):250-256.(in Chinese).
Yu E T,2018.A warmer,wetter and less windy China in the twenty-first century as projected by a nested high-resolution simulation using the weather research and forecasting(WRF)model[J].Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci,DOI:10.1007/s13143-018-0072-5.
Yu E T,Wang H J,Sun J Q,2010.A quick report on a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,3(6):325-329.
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.,2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:climatology and extremes[J].Clim Dyn,45(7/8):2013-2031.
于恩涛,孙建奇,吕光辉,等,2015.西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估[J],干旱区地理,38:429-437.Yu E T,Sun J Q,Lv G H,et al.,2015.High-resolution projection of future climate change in the northwestern arid regions of China[J],Arid Land Geography,38:429-437.(in Chinese).
Zhang Y,2012.Projections of 2.0℃Warming over the Globe and China under RCP4.5[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):514-520.
Zhou B T,Wen Q H,Xu Y,et al.,2014.Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles[J].J Climate,27(17):6591-6611.