全球恐怖主义浪潮与中国国际反恐话语构建
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摘要
浪潮理论为理解现代恐怖主义的动态发展提供了一个解释框架和理论模型。该理论对跨度达百余年的恐怖主义现象进行了历时性和共时性考察,为人们深入理解其演变轨迹提供了学术积淀。该理论以四波浪潮最为典型。在其基础上,还形成了第五波浪潮的观点,可将其归纳为"千禧年主义""独狼主义""类国家主义"三种流派。前两种流派存在理论缺陷,类国家主义浪潮是当前恐怖主义的主要特征。同时,该浪潮也酝酿着恐怖主义代际转换的异动迹象。当前恐怖主义在意识形态、组织规模、斗争策略和攻击对象以及资金来源等方面表现出不同于之前浪潮的一些特点,可归为"第六波恐怖主义浪潮",其本质是全球恐怖主义驱动力的结构性变迁,是"逆全球主义浪潮"。应对该浪潮所带来的挑战,中国需要系统梳理自身反恐斗争演进轨迹,立足时代背景,前瞻全球化面临的挑战,塑造国际反恐怖斗争话语体系,推进人类命运共同体的系统构建。
The theory of global terrorism waves provides an explanation framework and theoretical model for understanding the dynamic development of modern terrorism. Within this framework,diachronic and synchronic research on terrorism over the past few centuries has accumulated thoughtful insights into a deep understanding of terrorism evolution trajectory. This theory is well-known for four waves' views,based on which,several recently-proposed fifth-wave views can be categorized into three schools,that is,"Millennialism","lone wolf"and "Semi-State". The first two schools have theoretical flaws and the wave of "Semi-State"is identified as a unifying global zeitgeist. In this wave,abnormal signs that symbolize the next generation are also brewing. Current terrorisms have different representations from the previous waves in the terrorist ideology、organization、tactics、targets and founding. It can be called "the sixth wave",also a wave of "anti-globalization",the essence of which is that the driving forces behind global terrorism are undergoing structural changes. In response to the challenges brought by this wave,China should systematically analyze its evolutional history of counter-terrorism struggles,predict the potential challenges globalization is facing in the historical background and construct the international discourse system to build a community with a shared future for all humanity.
The theory of global terrorism waves provides an explanation framework and theoretical model for understanding the dynamic development of modern terrorism. Within this framework,diachronic and synchronic research on terrorism over the past few centuries has accumulated thoughtful insights into a deep understanding of terrorism evolution trajectory. This theory is well-known for four waves' views,based on which,several recently-proposed fifth-wave views can be categorized into three schools,that is,"Millennialism","lone wolf"and "Semi-State". The first two schools have theoretical flaws and the wave of "Semi-State"is identified as a unifying global zeitgeist. In this wave,abnormal signs that symbolize the next generation are also brewing. Current terrorisms have different representations from the previous waves in the terrorist ideology、organization、tactics、targets and founding. It can be called "the sixth wave",also a wave of "anti-globalization",the essence of which is that the driving forces behind global terrorism are undergoing structural changes. In response to the challenges brought by this wave,China should systematically analyze its evolutional history of counter-terrorism struggles,predict the potential challenges globalization is facing in the historical background and construct the international discourse system to build a community with a shared future for all humanity.
引文
(1)古代恐怖主义与现代恐怖主义有极大不同,限于篇幅,本文研究对象为现代恐怖主义。对于古代恐怖主义的讨论,参见Bevin Alexander,How Wars Are Won:The 13 Rules of War from Ancient Greece to the War on Terror,New York:Three Rivers Press,2007;余建华:《关于世界恐怖主义早期历史演进的探析》,《史林》2015年第2期,第184-194页。
(1)以媒体为例,恐怖主义先后借助报纸、收音机、电视、互联网、社交媒体的传播,最大化其“以行动为宣传”的眼球效应和模仿效应,为恐怖主义浪潮从一波发展到另一波提供了窗口和渠道。
(2)David Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,edited by Audrey Kurth Cronin and James Ludes,Washington,DC:Georgetown university Press,2004,pp.46-73.国内有学者论及对拉波波特理论的介绍,参见张家栋:《现代恐怖主义的四次浪潮》,《国际观察》2007年第6期,第62-68页;曾向红:《全球化、逆全球化与恐怖主义新浪潮》,《外交评论》2017年第3期,第130-156页;林泰和:《恐怖主义研究:概念与理论》,台北:五南图书出版股份有限公司,2015年,第133-138页。新近有学者在拉波波特的基础上提出了第五波浪潮理论,参见Jeffrey D.Simon,“Technological and Lone Operator Terrorism:Prospects for a Fifth Wave of Global Terrorism,”in Terrorism,Identity and Legitimacy-the Four Waves Theory and Political Violence,edited by Jean E.Rosenfeld,Oxon:Rouledge,2011,pp.44-65;Anthony N.Celso,“The Islamic State and Boko Haram:Fifth Wave Jihadist Terror Groups,”Orbis,vol.59,issue2,2015,pp.249-268;Jeffrey Kaplan,“The Fifth Wave:The New Tribalism?,”Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.19,no.4,2017;Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(1)Jeffrey Kaplan,“The Fifth Wave:The New Tribalism?,”Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.19,no.4,2017,p.12.
(2)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June),pp.1-2.
(3)Leonard Weinberg,William Eubank,“An End to The Fourth Wave of Terrorism?,”Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,vol.33,no.7,2017,pp.594-602;Denys Proshyn,“Breaking the Waves:How the Phenomenon of European Jihadism Militantes Against The Wave Theory of Terrorism,”Interdisciplinary Political And Cultural Journal,vol.17,no.1,2015,pp.91-107.
(4)参见郭永良:《论反恐怖人民战争战略》,北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2017年,第1页。
(5)Bruce Hoffman,“The Myth of Grass-Roots Terrorism-why Osama bin Laden Still Matters,”Foreign Affair,vol.87,no.3,2008,pp.133-138;Marc Sageman,“Does Osama Still Call the Shots?Debating the Containment of al Qaeda's leadership,”Foreign Affair,vol.87,no.4,2008,pp.163-166.
(6)Rod Lyon,Stephanie Huang,“Fifth Wave Terrorism:Have Predictions Jumped the Gun?,”ASPI,July 27,2015,https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/fifth-wave-terrorism-have-predictions-jumped-the-gun/,April 10,2018.
(1)例如,他们将人类分为教徒和异教徒。将教徒行为暴力化、教徒肉体工具化、教徒目的“神圣化”,将异教徒敌人化、次人类化和污名化。参见郭永良:《论反恐怖人民战争》,《中国军事科学》2017年第1期,第61页。
(2)Bruce Hoffman,“A Counterterrorism Strategy for the Obama Administration”,Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.21,no.3,2009,pp.350-373.
(3)David.Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,p.66.
(4)Nate Rosenblat,t“All Jihad is Local:What ISIS'S Files Tell Us About Its Fighters,”International Security,https://na-production.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/ISIS-Files.pdf,2016(7),p.2.
(5)Erin Walls,“Waves of Modern Terrorism:Examining the Past and Predicting the Future,”Georgetown University,B.A.,Washington D.C.,April 5,2017,p.77.
(6)Leonard Weinberg,William Eubank,“An End to The Fourth Wave of Terrorism?,”Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,vol.33,no.7,2017,p.600.
(7)“Support for Terror Wanes Among Muslim Publics,”The Pew Global Attitudes Project,July 14,2005.
(1)本表系皮尤研究中心的调查结果,数据获取地址:http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/19/survey/all/,2018年5月6日。
(1)Jeffrey Kaplan,Terrorist Groups and the New Tribalism-Terrorism's Fifth Wave,New York:Routledge,2010;Jeffrey Kaplan,“The Fifth Wave:The New Tribalism?,”Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.19,no.4,2017,pp.548-549.
(2)塞奇曼对“无领袖吉哈德”(Leaderless Jihad)进行了系统论证。参见Marc Sagemen,Leaderless Jihad:Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century,Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania Press,2008.
(3)Jeffrey D.Simon,“Technological and Lone Operator Terrorism:Prospects for a Fifth Wave of Global Terrorism,”in Terrorism,Identity and Legitimacy-the Four Waves Theory and Political Violence,pp.44-65.
(1)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(2)Scott Anderson,“Fractured Lands:How the Arab World Came Apart,”The New York Times,August 10,2016.
(3)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(4)Jim Michaels,“New U.S.Intelligence Estimate Sees 20-25K ISIL fighters,”USA Today,February 6,2016.
(5)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(1)习近平:《携手推进“一带一路”建设——在“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛开幕式上的演讲》,《人民日报》2017年5月15日,第3版。
(2)Gerard Chaliand,“Jihadism in the Age of ISIS,”in The History of Terrorism:From Antiquity to ISIS,ed.Gerard Chaliand and Arnaud Blin,Oakland:University of California Press,2016,p.438.
(3)Ericka Brady,“An Analysis of Patterns of Change Arising from the Syrian Conflict:Islamic Terrorism,Refugee Flows and Political Destabilization in Europe,”Journal of Terrorism Research,vol.8,no.1,2017,p.59.
(4)关于“安全化”(securitization)的系统论述,参见Barry Buzan,Ole Wver,Jaap de Wilde,Security:A New Framework for Analysis,London:Lynne Rienner Publishers,Inc.,1998.
(5)David Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,pp.46-73.
(1)David Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,p.48.
(2)乌尔里希·贝克:《风险社会》,何博闻译,南京:译林出版社,2003年,第20页。
(1)Institute for Economics and Peace,“Global Terrorism Index(2016),”http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf,p.35,April 20,2018.
(2)Institute for Economics ad Peace,“Global Terrorism Index(2017),”https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Global%20Terrorism%20Index%202017%20%284%29.pdf,p.12,April 20,2018.
(3)Fonseca B.,Rosen J.D.,Cyber Security in the US:Major Trends and Challenges,Cham:Palgrave Macmillan,2017,p.90.
(4)参见姚洪华:《坚决贯彻习主席重大决策部署,大力提升武警部队反恐军事斗争准备水平》,《人民武警报》2016年7月30日,第1版。
(1)参见郑启航、郭永良:《“一带一路”的安全治理:框架与图景》,《中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第1期,第17页。
(1)Lucy Hornby,“IS Uighurs Threaten Rivers of Blood,”Financial Times,March 2,2017.
(2)由于浪潮理论肇始于西方话语,其部分观点值得商榷。因此,需要取其精华去其糟粕,构建符合我国安全利益的话语体系。
(1)习近平:《开放共创繁荣创新引领未来——在博鳌亚洲论坛2018年年会开幕式上的主旨演讲》,《人民日报》2018年4月11日,第3版。
(2)参见郭永良:《外国恐怖作战人员的全球动向及其战略应对》,《中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第2期,第39页。
(3)参见习近平:《坚持合作创新法治共赢携手开展全球安全治理——在国际刑警组织第八十六届全体大会开幕式上的主旨演讲》,《人民日报》2017年9月27日,第2版。
(1)中共中央宣传部:《习近平总书记系列重要讲话读本》,北京:学习出版社、人民出版社,2016年,第44页。
(1)以媒体为例,恐怖主义先后借助报纸、收音机、电视、互联网、社交媒体的传播,最大化其“以行动为宣传”的眼球效应和模仿效应,为恐怖主义浪潮从一波发展到另一波提供了窗口和渠道。
(2)David Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,edited by Audrey Kurth Cronin and James Ludes,Washington,DC:Georgetown university Press,2004,pp.46-73.国内有学者论及对拉波波特理论的介绍,参见张家栋:《现代恐怖主义的四次浪潮》,《国际观察》2007年第6期,第62-68页;曾向红:《全球化、逆全球化与恐怖主义新浪潮》,《外交评论》2017年第3期,第130-156页;林泰和:《恐怖主义研究:概念与理论》,台北:五南图书出版股份有限公司,2015年,第133-138页。新近有学者在拉波波特的基础上提出了第五波浪潮理论,参见Jeffrey D.Simon,“Technological and Lone Operator Terrorism:Prospects for a Fifth Wave of Global Terrorism,”in Terrorism,Identity and Legitimacy-the Four Waves Theory and Political Violence,edited by Jean E.Rosenfeld,Oxon:Rouledge,2011,pp.44-65;Anthony N.Celso,“The Islamic State and Boko Haram:Fifth Wave Jihadist Terror Groups,”Orbis,vol.59,issue2,2015,pp.249-268;Jeffrey Kaplan,“The Fifth Wave:The New Tribalism?,”Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.19,no.4,2017;Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(1)Jeffrey Kaplan,“The Fifth Wave:The New Tribalism?,”Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.19,no.4,2017,p.12.
(2)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June),pp.1-2.
(3)Leonard Weinberg,William Eubank,“An End to The Fourth Wave of Terrorism?,”Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,vol.33,no.7,2017,pp.594-602;Denys Proshyn,“Breaking the Waves:How the Phenomenon of European Jihadism Militantes Against The Wave Theory of Terrorism,”Interdisciplinary Political And Cultural Journal,vol.17,no.1,2015,pp.91-107.
(4)参见郭永良:《论反恐怖人民战争战略》,北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2017年,第1页。
(5)Bruce Hoffman,“The Myth of Grass-Roots Terrorism-why Osama bin Laden Still Matters,”Foreign Affair,vol.87,no.3,2008,pp.133-138;Marc Sageman,“Does Osama Still Call the Shots?Debating the Containment of al Qaeda's leadership,”Foreign Affair,vol.87,no.4,2008,pp.163-166.
(6)Rod Lyon,Stephanie Huang,“Fifth Wave Terrorism:Have Predictions Jumped the Gun?,”ASPI,July 27,2015,https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/fifth-wave-terrorism-have-predictions-jumped-the-gun/,April 10,2018.
(1)例如,他们将人类分为教徒和异教徒。将教徒行为暴力化、教徒肉体工具化、教徒目的“神圣化”,将异教徒敌人化、次人类化和污名化。参见郭永良:《论反恐怖人民战争》,《中国军事科学》2017年第1期,第61页。
(2)Bruce Hoffman,“A Counterterrorism Strategy for the Obama Administration”,Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.21,no.3,2009,pp.350-373.
(3)David.Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,p.66.
(4)Nate Rosenblat,t“All Jihad is Local:What ISIS'S Files Tell Us About Its Fighters,”International Security,https://na-production.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/ISIS-Files.pdf,2016(7),p.2.
(5)Erin Walls,“Waves of Modern Terrorism:Examining the Past and Predicting the Future,”Georgetown University,B.A.,Washington D.C.,April 5,2017,p.77.
(6)Leonard Weinberg,William Eubank,“An End to The Fourth Wave of Terrorism?,”Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,vol.33,no.7,2017,p.600.
(7)“Support for Terror Wanes Among Muslim Publics,”The Pew Global Attitudes Project,July 14,2005.
(1)本表系皮尤研究中心的调查结果,数据获取地址:http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/19/survey/all/,2018年5月6日。
(1)Jeffrey Kaplan,Terrorist Groups and the New Tribalism-Terrorism's Fifth Wave,New York:Routledge,2010;Jeffrey Kaplan,“The Fifth Wave:The New Tribalism?,”Terrorism and Political Violence,vol.19,no.4,2017,pp.548-549.
(2)塞奇曼对“无领袖吉哈德”(Leaderless Jihad)进行了系统论证。参见Marc Sagemen,Leaderless Jihad:Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century,Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania Press,2008.
(3)Jeffrey D.Simon,“Technological and Lone Operator Terrorism:Prospects for a Fifth Wave of Global Terrorism,”in Terrorism,Identity and Legitimacy-the Four Waves Theory and Political Violence,pp.44-65.
(1)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(2)Scott Anderson,“Fractured Lands:How the Arab World Came Apart,”The New York Times,August 10,2016.
(3)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(4)Jim Michaels,“New U.S.Intelligence Estimate Sees 20-25K ISIL fighters,”USA Today,February 6,2016.
(5)Or Honig,Ido Yahe,l“A Fifth Wave of Terrorism?The Emergence of Terrorists Semi-States,”Terrorism and Political Violence,no.9,2017(June).
(1)习近平:《携手推进“一带一路”建设——在“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛开幕式上的演讲》,《人民日报》2017年5月15日,第3版。
(2)Gerard Chaliand,“Jihadism in the Age of ISIS,”in The History of Terrorism:From Antiquity to ISIS,ed.Gerard Chaliand and Arnaud Blin,Oakland:University of California Press,2016,p.438.
(3)Ericka Brady,“An Analysis of Patterns of Change Arising from the Syrian Conflict:Islamic Terrorism,Refugee Flows and Political Destabilization in Europe,”Journal of Terrorism Research,vol.8,no.1,2017,p.59.
(4)关于“安全化”(securitization)的系统论述,参见Barry Buzan,Ole Wver,Jaap de Wilde,Security:A New Framework for Analysis,London:Lynne Rienner Publishers,Inc.,1998.
(5)David Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,pp.46-73.
(1)David Rapopor,t“The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,”in Attacking Terrorism,p.48.
(2)乌尔里希·贝克:《风险社会》,何博闻译,南京:译林出版社,2003年,第20页。
(1)Institute for Economics and Peace,“Global Terrorism Index(2016),”http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf,p.35,April 20,2018.
(2)Institute for Economics ad Peace,“Global Terrorism Index(2017),”https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Global%20Terrorism%20Index%202017%20%284%29.pdf,p.12,April 20,2018.
(3)Fonseca B.,Rosen J.D.,Cyber Security in the US:Major Trends and Challenges,Cham:Palgrave Macmillan,2017,p.90.
(4)参见姚洪华:《坚决贯彻习主席重大决策部署,大力提升武警部队反恐军事斗争准备水平》,《人民武警报》2016年7月30日,第1版。
(1)参见郑启航、郭永良:《“一带一路”的安全治理:框架与图景》,《中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第1期,第17页。
(1)Lucy Hornby,“IS Uighurs Threaten Rivers of Blood,”Financial Times,March 2,2017.
(2)由于浪潮理论肇始于西方话语,其部分观点值得商榷。因此,需要取其精华去其糟粕,构建符合我国安全利益的话语体系。
(1)习近平:《开放共创繁荣创新引领未来——在博鳌亚洲论坛2018年年会开幕式上的主旨演讲》,《人民日报》2018年4月11日,第3版。
(2)参见郭永良:《外国恐怖作战人员的全球动向及其战略应对》,《中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版)》2018年第2期,第39页。
(3)参见习近平:《坚持合作创新法治共赢携手开展全球安全治理——在国际刑警组织第八十六届全体大会开幕式上的主旨演讲》,《人民日报》2017年9月27日,第2版。
(1)中共中央宣传部:《习近平总书记系列重要讲话读本》,北京:学习出版社、人民出版社,2016年,第44页。