基于多风险源胁迫的西南地区生态风险评价
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摘要
西南地区生态环境复杂、人地矛盾突出,生态系统面临着多种风险胁迫,进行生态风险评价对区域生态风险的预警和防控具有重要的意义。基于西南地区的生态环境特征,将生态风险分为自然灾害风险与人类活动风险,从风险源危险性、生态系统潜在损失度、生态系统易损性3个方面构建单一风险评价模型,将单一风险评价结果进行综合分析得到西南地区综合生态风险结果。研究表明,西南高生态风险区面积为17.02万km2,占研究区总面积7.4%,主要分布在念青唐古拉山、邛崃山、哀牢山、无量山、金沙江、怒江、澜沧江、大渡河流域等地,以及成都、重庆、贵阳等人地作用强烈的大城市周边。这些地区环境复杂,灾害易发,应加强防控与监测,优化产业结构,继续推进生态保护工程,降低生态风险。
Ecological risk refers to the possibility that various stress factors arising from natural disasters and human activities in a given region affect a complex ecosystem,including reductions in health,productivity,genetic structure,and economic and esthetic values of certain elements or the entire ecosystem. In the complex environment of Southwest China,conflicts between people and land are prominent,and the ecosystem faces various risk stressors. Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out ecological risk assessments for the early warning and prevention of regional ecological risks.Considering the characteristics of Southwest China,we divided ecological risks into natural disaster risks,namely,drought,flood,earthquake,landslide,debris flow,soil erosion,and rock desertification,and human activity risks,namely,population pressure,economic pressure,water pollution,and soil pollution. Seven ecosystem types were used as risk receptors—forest,shrub,grassland,wetland,farmland,bare land,and urban. A single risk assessment model was constructed using three components: danger of risk source,potential ecosystem loss,and ecosystem vulnerability. The model spatially superimposed the results of a single risk assessment to obtain the comprehensive ecological risk value of the Southwest. Moreover,the dangerousness of risk sources was quantitatively analyzed using relevant environmental impact factors,and the degree of potential ecosystem loss was characterized by ecosystem quality. Ecosystem vulnerability wasanalyzed based on two aspects: environmental vulnerability and landscape structure vulnerability. The results showed that the area of high ecological risk in Southwest China measured 170200 km2,accounting for 7.4% of the study area. High risk areas were mainly distributed along the mountains and hydrographic net,such as the Nianqingtanggula,Qionglai,Ailao,and Wuliang mountains and the Jinsha,Nu,Lancang,and Dadu rivers. These areas are geographically complex and prone to natural disasters. Therefore,geological readjustment,prevention,and monitoring should be strengthened to minimize the losses caused by natural disasters. The National Natural Forest Protection Project and Sloping Land Conversion Program should be continued to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and to improve ecosystem ability to resist risks. Ecological risks to Chengdu,Chongqing,Guiyang,and other cities( and their surrounding areas) are also relatively high because of their dense populations and strong human interactions. Therefore,to reduce the economic and population effects on ecosystems,efficiency of land use should be improved,human over-exploitation should be controlled,and industrial structure should be optimized. Although ecological risk is low in Northern Qinghai and Tibet,the ecological environment is highly vulnerable. Hence,ecological environmental construction should be enhanced to prevent the destruction of original fragile ecological environment.
Ecological risk refers to the possibility that various stress factors arising from natural disasters and human activities in a given region affect a complex ecosystem,including reductions in health,productivity,genetic structure,and economic and esthetic values of certain elements or the entire ecosystem. In the complex environment of Southwest China,conflicts between people and land are prominent,and the ecosystem faces various risk stressors. Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out ecological risk assessments for the early warning and prevention of regional ecological risks.Considering the characteristics of Southwest China,we divided ecological risks into natural disaster risks,namely,drought,flood,earthquake,landslide,debris flow,soil erosion,and rock desertification,and human activity risks,namely,population pressure,economic pressure,water pollution,and soil pollution. Seven ecosystem types were used as risk receptors—forest,shrub,grassland,wetland,farmland,bare land,and urban. A single risk assessment model was constructed using three components: danger of risk source,potential ecosystem loss,and ecosystem vulnerability. The model spatially superimposed the results of a single risk assessment to obtain the comprehensive ecological risk value of the Southwest. Moreover,the dangerousness of risk sources was quantitatively analyzed using relevant environmental impact factors,and the degree of potential ecosystem loss was characterized by ecosystem quality. Ecosystem vulnerability wasanalyzed based on two aspects: environmental vulnerability and landscape structure vulnerability. The results showed that the area of high ecological risk in Southwest China measured 170200 km2,accounting for 7.4% of the study area. High risk areas were mainly distributed along the mountains and hydrographic net,such as the Nianqingtanggula,Qionglai,Ailao,and Wuliang mountains and the Jinsha,Nu,Lancang,and Dadu rivers. These areas are geographically complex and prone to natural disasters. Therefore,geological readjustment,prevention,and monitoring should be strengthened to minimize the losses caused by natural disasters. The National Natural Forest Protection Project and Sloping Land Conversion Program should be continued to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and to improve ecosystem ability to resist risks. Ecological risks to Chengdu,Chongqing,Guiyang,and other cities( and their surrounding areas) are also relatively high because of their dense populations and strong human interactions. Therefore,to reduce the economic and population effects on ecosystems,efficiency of land use should be improved,human over-exploitation should be controlled,and industrial structure should be optimized. Although ecological risk is low in Northern Qinghai and Tibet,the ecological environment is highly vulnerable. Hence,ecological environmental construction should be enhanced to prevent the destruction of original fragile ecological environment.
引文
[1]卢亚灵,徐丽芬,马宗文,颜磊,许工学.环渤海五省市生态风险评价.生态学杂志,2012,31(1):227-234.
[2]曾建军,邹明亮,郭建军,李凯,杨超,陈冠光,岳东霞.生态风险评价研究进展综述.环境监测管理与技术,2017,29(1):1-5,10-10.
[3]周婷,蒙吉军.区域生态风险评价方法研究进展.生态学杂志,2009,28(4):762-767.
[4] Kanwar P,Bowden W B,Greenhalgh S. A regional ecological risk assessment of the Kaipara Harbour,New Zealand,using a relative risk model.Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2015,21(4):1123-1146.
[5] Chen Q Y,Liu J L. Development process and perspective on ecological risk assessment. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(5):239-245.
[6]孙洪波,杨桂山,苏伟忠,万荣荣.生态风险评价研究进展.生态学杂志,2009,28(2):335-341.
[7] Landis W G. Twenty years before and hence; ecological risk assessment at multiple scales with multiple stressors and multiple endpoints. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2003,9(5):1317-1326.
[8] Chen S Q,Chen B,Fath B D. Ecological risk assessment on the system scale:a review of state-of-the-art models and future perspectives. Ecological Modelling,2013,250:25-33.
[9] Obery A M,Landis W G. A regional multiple stressor risk assessment of the Codorus creek watershed applying the relative risk model. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2002,8(2):405-428.
[10] Anderson S M,Landis W G. A pilot application of regional scale risk assessment to the forestry management of the upper Grande Ronde Watershed,Oregon. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2012,18(4):705-732.
[11]付在毅,许学工,林辉平,王宪礼.辽河三角洲湿地区域生态风险评价.生态学报,2001,21(3):365-373.
[12]张雅洲,谢小平.基于RS和GIS的南四湖生态风险评价.生态学报,2015,35(5):1371-1377.
[13]徐羽,钟业喜,冯兴华,徐丽婷,郑林.鄱阳湖流域土地利用生态风险格局.生态学报,2016,36(23):7850-7857.
[14]丁俊,魏伦武,赖绍民,郑万模,倪师军,张成江.我国西南地区城市地质灾害与防治对策.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(S1):119-122,146-146.
[15]许妍,高俊峰,郭建科.太湖流域生态风险评价.生态学报,2013,33(9):2896-2906.
[16]祁元,刘勇,杨正华,徐瑱,方苗.基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析.冰川冻土,2012,34(1):96-104.
[17]杜悦悦,彭建,赵士权,胡智超,王仰麟.西南山地滑坡灾害生态风险评价——以大理白族自治州为例.地理学报,2016,71(9):1544-1561.
[18] Ohlmacher G C,Davis J C. Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas,USA. Engineering Geology,2003,69(3/4):331-343.
[19] Lee S,Pradhan B. Probabilistic landslide hazards and risk mapping on Penang Island,Malaysia. Journal of Earth System Science,2006,115(6):661-672.
[20]王春山,巴仁基,周洪福,刘宇杰,邓国仕.四川省石棉县县城泥石流灾害风险评估.水土保持研究,2014,21(4):219-223,228-228.
[21]铁永波,唐川.汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究.灾害学,2010,25(4):43-47,53-53.
[22]王效科,欧阳志云,肖寒,苗鸿,傅伯杰.中国水土流失敏感性分布规律及其区划研究.生态学报,2001,21(1):14-19.
[23]王娇,程维明,祁生林,周成虎,张文杰,仝迟鸣.基于USLE和GIS的水土流失敏感性空间分析——以河北太行山区为例.地理研究,2014,33(4):614-624.
[24]李晓松,吴炳方,王浩,张瑾.区域尺度海河流域水土流失风险评估.遥感学报,2011,15(2):372-387.
[25] Rao E M,Ouyang Z Y,Yu X X,Xiao Y. Spatial patterns and impacts of soil conservation service in China. Geomorphology,2014,207:64-70.
[26] Rao E M,Xiao Y,Ouyang Z Y,Zheng H. Changes in ecosystem service of soil conservation between 2000 and 2010 and its driving factors in southwestern China. Chinese Geographical Science,2016,26(2):165-173.
[27]谢余初,巩杰,赵彩霞.甘肃白龙江流域水土流失的景观生态风险评价.生态学杂志,2014,33(3):702-708.
[28] Jiang Z C,Lian Y Q,Qin X Q. Rocky desertification in Southwest China:impacts,causes,and restoration. Earth-Science Reviews,2014,132:1-12.
[29] Yang Q Q,Wang K L,Zhang C H,Yue Y M,Tian R C,Fan F D. Spatio-temporal evolution of rocky desertification and its driving forces in karst areas of Northwestern Guangxi,China. Environmental Earth Sciences,2011,64(2):383-393.
[30]肖荣波,欧阳志云,王效科,赵同谦.中国西南地区石漠化敏感性评价及其空间分析.生态学杂志,2005,24(5):551-554.
[31]赖长鸿,覃家作,张文,刘波,蔡凡隆,李绪佳.四川省石漠化敏感性评价及其空间分布特征.水土保持研究,2013,20(4):99-104.
[32]张小飞,王如松,李正国,李锋,吴健生,黄锦楼,于盈盈.城市综合生态风险评价——以淮北市城区为例.生态学报,2011,31(20):6204-6214.
[33]许学工,颜磊,徐丽芬,卢亚灵,马禄义.中国自然灾害生态风险评价.北京大学学报.自然科学版,2011,47(5):901-908.
[34]王娟,崔保山,姚华荣,刘世梁.纵向岭谷区澜沧江流域景观生态安全时空分异特征.生态学报,2008,28(4):1681-1690.
[35] Griffith J A,Martinko E A,Price K P. Landscape structure analysis of Kansas at three scales. Landscape and Urban Planning,2000,52(1):45-61.
[36]陈强,陈云浩,王萌杰,蒋卫国,候鹏,李营. 2001—2010年洞庭湖生态系统质量遥感综合评价与变化分析.生态学报,2015,35(13):4347-4356.
[37]潘竟虎,董磊磊. 2001—2010年疏勒河流域生态系统质量综合评价.应用生态学报,2016,27(9):2907-2915.
[38]肖洋,欧阳志云,王莉雁,饶恩明,江陵,张路.内蒙古生态系统质量空间特征及其驱动力.生态学报,2016,36(19):6019-6030.
[2]曾建军,邹明亮,郭建军,李凯,杨超,陈冠光,岳东霞.生态风险评价研究进展综述.环境监测管理与技术,2017,29(1):1-5,10-10.
[3]周婷,蒙吉军.区域生态风险评价方法研究进展.生态学杂志,2009,28(4):762-767.
[4] Kanwar P,Bowden W B,Greenhalgh S. A regional ecological risk assessment of the Kaipara Harbour,New Zealand,using a relative risk model.Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2015,21(4):1123-1146.
[5] Chen Q Y,Liu J L. Development process and perspective on ecological risk assessment. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(5):239-245.
[6]孙洪波,杨桂山,苏伟忠,万荣荣.生态风险评价研究进展.生态学杂志,2009,28(2):335-341.
[7] Landis W G. Twenty years before and hence; ecological risk assessment at multiple scales with multiple stressors and multiple endpoints. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2003,9(5):1317-1326.
[8] Chen S Q,Chen B,Fath B D. Ecological risk assessment on the system scale:a review of state-of-the-art models and future perspectives. Ecological Modelling,2013,250:25-33.
[9] Obery A M,Landis W G. A regional multiple stressor risk assessment of the Codorus creek watershed applying the relative risk model. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2002,8(2):405-428.
[10] Anderson S M,Landis W G. A pilot application of regional scale risk assessment to the forestry management of the upper Grande Ronde Watershed,Oregon. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal,2012,18(4):705-732.
[11]付在毅,许学工,林辉平,王宪礼.辽河三角洲湿地区域生态风险评价.生态学报,2001,21(3):365-373.
[12]张雅洲,谢小平.基于RS和GIS的南四湖生态风险评价.生态学报,2015,35(5):1371-1377.
[13]徐羽,钟业喜,冯兴华,徐丽婷,郑林.鄱阳湖流域土地利用生态风险格局.生态学报,2016,36(23):7850-7857.
[14]丁俊,魏伦武,赖绍民,郑万模,倪师军,张成江.我国西南地区城市地质灾害与防治对策.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(S1):119-122,146-146.
[15]许妍,高俊峰,郭建科.太湖流域生态风险评价.生态学报,2013,33(9):2896-2906.
[16]祁元,刘勇,杨正华,徐瑱,方苗.基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析.冰川冻土,2012,34(1):96-104.
[17]杜悦悦,彭建,赵士权,胡智超,王仰麟.西南山地滑坡灾害生态风险评价——以大理白族自治州为例.地理学报,2016,71(9):1544-1561.
[18] Ohlmacher G C,Davis J C. Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas,USA. Engineering Geology,2003,69(3/4):331-343.
[19] Lee S,Pradhan B. Probabilistic landslide hazards and risk mapping on Penang Island,Malaysia. Journal of Earth System Science,2006,115(6):661-672.
[20]王春山,巴仁基,周洪福,刘宇杰,邓国仕.四川省石棉县县城泥石流灾害风险评估.水土保持研究,2014,21(4):219-223,228-228.
[21]铁永波,唐川.汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究.灾害学,2010,25(4):43-47,53-53.
[22]王效科,欧阳志云,肖寒,苗鸿,傅伯杰.中国水土流失敏感性分布规律及其区划研究.生态学报,2001,21(1):14-19.
[23]王娇,程维明,祁生林,周成虎,张文杰,仝迟鸣.基于USLE和GIS的水土流失敏感性空间分析——以河北太行山区为例.地理研究,2014,33(4):614-624.
[24]李晓松,吴炳方,王浩,张瑾.区域尺度海河流域水土流失风险评估.遥感学报,2011,15(2):372-387.
[25] Rao E M,Ouyang Z Y,Yu X X,Xiao Y. Spatial patterns and impacts of soil conservation service in China. Geomorphology,2014,207:64-70.
[26] Rao E M,Xiao Y,Ouyang Z Y,Zheng H. Changes in ecosystem service of soil conservation between 2000 and 2010 and its driving factors in southwestern China. Chinese Geographical Science,2016,26(2):165-173.
[27]谢余初,巩杰,赵彩霞.甘肃白龙江流域水土流失的景观生态风险评价.生态学杂志,2014,33(3):702-708.
[28] Jiang Z C,Lian Y Q,Qin X Q. Rocky desertification in Southwest China:impacts,causes,and restoration. Earth-Science Reviews,2014,132:1-12.
[29] Yang Q Q,Wang K L,Zhang C H,Yue Y M,Tian R C,Fan F D. Spatio-temporal evolution of rocky desertification and its driving forces in karst areas of Northwestern Guangxi,China. Environmental Earth Sciences,2011,64(2):383-393.
[30]肖荣波,欧阳志云,王效科,赵同谦.中国西南地区石漠化敏感性评价及其空间分析.生态学杂志,2005,24(5):551-554.
[31]赖长鸿,覃家作,张文,刘波,蔡凡隆,李绪佳.四川省石漠化敏感性评价及其空间分布特征.水土保持研究,2013,20(4):99-104.
[32]张小飞,王如松,李正国,李锋,吴健生,黄锦楼,于盈盈.城市综合生态风险评价——以淮北市城区为例.生态学报,2011,31(20):6204-6214.
[33]许学工,颜磊,徐丽芬,卢亚灵,马禄义.中国自然灾害生态风险评价.北京大学学报.自然科学版,2011,47(5):901-908.
[34]王娟,崔保山,姚华荣,刘世梁.纵向岭谷区澜沧江流域景观生态安全时空分异特征.生态学报,2008,28(4):1681-1690.
[35] Griffith J A,Martinko E A,Price K P. Landscape structure analysis of Kansas at three scales. Landscape and Urban Planning,2000,52(1):45-61.
[36]陈强,陈云浩,王萌杰,蒋卫国,候鹏,李营. 2001—2010年洞庭湖生态系统质量遥感综合评价与变化分析.生态学报,2015,35(13):4347-4356.
[37]潘竟虎,董磊磊. 2001—2010年疏勒河流域生态系统质量综合评价.应用生态学报,2016,27(9):2907-2915.
[38]肖洋,欧阳志云,王莉雁,饶恩明,江陵,张路.内蒙古生态系统质量空间特征及其驱动力.生态学报,2016,36(19):6019-6030.