大数据时代的交通模型
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  • 英文篇名:Transport Modelling in the Age of Big Data
  • 作者:Cuauhtemoc ; Anda ; Alexander ; Erath ; Pieter ; Jacobus ; Fourie ; 宗晶
  • 英文作者:Cuauhtemoc Anda;Alexander Erath;Pieter Jacobus Fourie;Zong Jing;ETH Zurich,Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore-ETH Centre;China Academy of Urban Planning & Design;
  • 关键词:大数据 ; 交通规划 ; 出行需求建模 ; 基于个体仿真 ; 智能公交卡 ; 手机网络数据
  • 英文关键词:Big Data;;transport planning;;travel demand modelling;;agent-based simulation;;public transport smart card;;mobile phone network data
  • 中文刊名:CSJT
  • 英文刊名:Urban Transport of China
  • 机构:苏黎世联邦理工大学未来城市实验室新加坡ETH中心;中国城市规划设计研究院;
  • 出版日期:2019-05-25
  • 出版单位:城市交通
  • 年:2019
  • 期:v.17;No.90
  • 基金:苏黎世ETH和新加坡国家研究基金会(FI370074016)联合成立的新加坡ETH中心未来城市实验室;; “研究人才和科技企业”项目的资助~~
  • 语种:中文;
  • 页:CSJT201903008
  • 页数:15
  • CN:03
  • ISSN:11-5141/U
  • 分类号:57-70+78
摘要
通过新的大数据来源诸如手机通信记录、智能卡数据以及社交媒体地理编码记录,可以前所未有地观察和了解出行行为的细节。尽管有如此庞大的大数据来源,但在规划实践中使用的交通需求模型,其数据源仍大多来自交通调查和人口普查等传统方法。对近期利用大数据研究交通行为,以及使交通规划师可以进行假设情景分析的交通需求模型的最新进展进行梳理。从出行识别到出行活动推理,回顾和分析现有数据分析方法,这些传统方法使收集到的出行轨迹信息能响应交通需求模型。未来的研究应该侧重将概率模型和机器学习技术应用于数据科学。设计这些数据挖掘方法是为了处理由手机移动追踪数据衍生的零散和掺杂偏差的数据的不确定性。此外,这些方法还适用于将不同的相关数据组整合到一个数据融合方案中,以便用出行日志信息丰富大数据。总之,建模知识已经在交通运输领域发展成熟,因此强烈建议在交通规划方面应用数据驱动方法时应建立相应领域专业知识的基础。这些新的挑战呼吁交通模型师和数据科学家之间的多学科协作。
        New Big Data sources such as mobile phone call data records, smart card data and geo-coded social media records allow to observe and understand mobility behaviour on an unprecedented level of detail.Despite the availability of such new Big Data sources, transport demand models used in planning practice still, almost exclusively, are based on conventional data such as travel diary surveys and population census.This literature review brings together recent advances in harnessing Big Data sources to understand travel behaviour and inform travel demand models that allow transport planners to compute what-if scenarios.From trip identification to activity inference, we review and analyse the existing data-mining methods that enable these opportunistically collected mobility traces inform transport demand models. We identify that future research should tap on the potential of probabilistic models and machine learning techniques as commonly used in data science. Those data-mining approaches are designed to handle the uncertainty of sparse and noisy data as it is the case for mobility traces derived from mobile phone data. In addition, they are suitable to integrate different related data sets in a data fusion scheme so as to enrich Big Data with information from travel diaries. In any case, we also acknowledge that sophisticated modelling knowledge has developed in the domain of transport planning and therefore we strongly advise that still, domain expert knowledge should build the fundament when applying data-driven approaches in transport planning. These new challenges call for a multidisciplinary collaboration between transport modellers and data scientists.
引文
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    (1)主要工作从2010年至2016年第二季度。
    (2)一些权威机构已经开始使用智能手机进行连续调查,以降低相应负担并提高数据质量,特别是在捕捉短时间活动方面。

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