1980—2016年北京市食物消费的土地需求
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摘要
社会经济发展和居民食物消费对土地需求之间的矛盾,已成为中国可持续发展亟待解决的关键问题,也是当今社会关注的热点问题之一。然而,目前对城市尺度食物消费的土地需求研究仍存在不足。本文利用CPI指数法,估算了北京市城乡居民1980—2016年的食物消费情况,揭示了居民食物消费结构改变对土地需求的演变特征,并探讨了未来不同消费模式下的土地需求情况,以期为实现居民的可持续消费提供参考,从而更好地解决社会经济发展和居民食物消费对土地需求之间的矛盾。结果表明:北京市食物消费结构已经由"粮食主导"的消费模式逐渐变为多元化的消费模式,且城乡之间存在明显差异;1980—2016年,北京市居民人均食物消费的土地需求量呈"U"型的变化特征,其中粮食消费的土地需求不断减少,而蔬果和动物性食物的土地需求不断增加;在2016年,北京市居民人均食物消费的土地需求量达到了1227.04 m~2/人,使得北京市居民消费的土地需求总量达到了266.62万hm~2,其中动物性食物消费占70.36%,城市居民食物消费占95%以上;在2016年,北京市居民食物消费的土地需求压力达到了14。健康合理的食物消费结构不仅有利于身体健康,也能够缓解食物消费对土地资源的压力;在健康饮食情景下,北京市每年居民食物消费最多可节约95.20～153.32万hm~2的土地面积,相当于北京市现有耕地和果园面积的5～8倍。因此,通过合理的饮食结构调整对解决社会经济发展和居民食物消费对土地需求之间的矛盾具有重要的意义。
The contradiction between socioeconomic development and land demands for food consumption has become one of the key issues for sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies on land demands for food consumption at the urban level. Therefore, this study used the CPI index method to estimate food consumption of urban and rural residents in Beijing during 1980-2016. Based on the concept of virtual land, it revealed land demands as well as pressures due to human dietary change. We also explored land demands for food consumption under different scenarios in the future. Our results are as follows: human food consumption in Beijing has changed to more vegetables, fruits, and livestock products, and there are obvious differences in food consumption of urban and rural residents. Land demands for food consumption presented a Ushaped trend during this period. The per capita land demand for meat, eggs and milk, vegetables,and fruits increased significantly, while land demands for cereals have been decreasing. In 2016,land demands per capita for food consumption amounted to 1227.04 m~2/a, resulting in the total land demands of 266.62×10~4 hm~2, with animal product consumption accounting for 70.36% and urban consumption accounting for more than 95%; and the pressure index for land demands reached 14.With a healthier diet, it could save 95.20×10~4～153.32×10~4 hm~2 of land, equivalent to 5～8 times of present arable land area in Beijing. Thus, to some extent, a healthy food dietary structure could also alleviate the pressure of land demands for human food consumption.
The contradiction between socioeconomic development and land demands for food consumption has become one of the key issues for sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies on land demands for food consumption at the urban level. Therefore, this study used the CPI index method to estimate food consumption of urban and rural residents in Beijing during 1980-2016. Based on the concept of virtual land, it revealed land demands as well as pressures due to human dietary change. We also explored land demands for food consumption under different scenarios in the future. Our results are as follows: human food consumption in Beijing has changed to more vegetables, fruits, and livestock products, and there are obvious differences in food consumption of urban and rural residents. Land demands for food consumption presented a Ushaped trend during this period. The per capita land demand for meat, eggs and milk, vegetables,and fruits increased significantly, while land demands for cereals have been decreasing. In 2016,land demands per capita for food consumption amounted to 1227.04 m~2/a, resulting in the total land demands of 266.62×10~4 hm~2, with animal product consumption accounting for 70.36% and urban consumption accounting for more than 95%; and the pressure index for land demands reached 14.With a healthier diet, it could save 95.20×10~4～153.32×10~4 hm~2 of land, equivalent to 5～8 times of present arable land area in Beijing. Thus, to some extent, a healthy food dietary structure could also alleviate the pressure of land demands for human food consumption.
引文
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