基于经济增长可持续性的交通基础设施投资地区结构优化模型
|
摘要
在我国人口红利逐渐消退,经济结构调整的经济发展新阶段,如何保持我国经济增长的可持续性是当前社会面临的突出问题。作为重要的供给要素,社会劳动力供给质量的提高对于推动社会长期的经济增长具有重要的作用。传统对于交通基础设施投资评价的成本-收益法以物质总产出最大为核心目标。有别于传统的成本-收益分析,以社会劳动力供给质量提升最大为立足点,建立了交通基础设施投资的地区结构优化模型。在方法上,运用宏观经济学经济增长理论和人力资本理论的相关模型,提出了以社会人力资本积累程度作为社会劳动力供给质量的代理变量。引入刘易斯二元经济模型刻画城市和农村地区的生产函数,建立了以社会人力资本积累最大为优化目标,交通基础设施投资总额一定的交通基础设施投资的地区结构优化模型。进一步,利用2006—2015年京津冀地区的相关数据,采用回归分析估算出北京、河北两地的生产函数系数。考虑地区内交通基础设施投资总额一定的约束,采用拉格朗日乘数法求出了交通基础设施投资在北京、河北之间的最优投资比例。该优化结果对于我国政府在新阶段推进公共资源配置的供给侧改革,促进经济社会的长期经济可持续增长提供了科学的理论依据和决策参考。
Nowardays,China stands on the period of economy adjustment and development,demographic dividend fade. How to persist the sustainability of economic growth is the outstanding problem for China. The enhance of social labor supply quality,which is the important supply factor,is significant for improving the long-term economic growth of society. Traditional cost-benefit analysis for transport infrastructure investment evaluation focuses on how to promote the biggest wealth production. Different from traditional method,we built the optimized model of regional structure of transport infrastructure investment to achieve the maximized enhance of the quality of social labor supply. In method,by using macroeconomics economic growth theory and the related model of human capital theory,we firstly utilize the social human capital accumulation as the agent variable of social labor supply quality. Then,we introduced the Lewis dual economic model to portraythe urban-country production function,and built the optimized structure model of regional structure of transport infrastructure investment,which is limited by the total amount of transport investment to achieve the goal of maximization of human capital accumulation. Further,we collected the economic data of BeijingTianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 and used the regression analysis method to estimate the coefficients of the production function of Beijing and Hebei. Considering the limit of total regional transport infrastructure investment,we computed the optimized rate of transport infrastructure investment between Beijing and Hebei by using Lagrange multiplier approach. The optimization result can provide a scientific theory evidence and decision-making reference for our government to promote the supply side reform of public resources allocation,boost the long-term economic sustainable growth of society.
Nowardays,China stands on the period of economy adjustment and development,demographic dividend fade. How to persist the sustainability of economic growth is the outstanding problem for China. The enhance of social labor supply quality,which is the important supply factor,is significant for improving the long-term economic growth of society. Traditional cost-benefit analysis for transport infrastructure investment evaluation focuses on how to promote the biggest wealth production. Different from traditional method,we built the optimized model of regional structure of transport infrastructure investment to achieve the maximized enhance of the quality of social labor supply. In method,by using macroeconomics economic growth theory and the related model of human capital theory,we firstly utilize the social human capital accumulation as the agent variable of social labor supply quality. Then,we introduced the Lewis dual economic model to portraythe urban-country production function,and built the optimized structure model of regional structure of transport infrastructure investment,which is limited by the total amount of transport investment to achieve the goal of maximization of human capital accumulation. Further,we collected the economic data of BeijingTianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 and used the regression analysis method to estimate the coefficients of the production function of Beijing and Hebei. Considering the limit of total regional transport infrastructure investment,we computed the optimized rate of transport infrastructure investment between Beijing and Hebei by using Lagrange multiplier approach. The optimization result can provide a scientific theory evidence and decision-making reference for our government to promote the supply side reform of public resources allocation,boost the long-term economic sustainable growth of society.
引文
[1]钞小静.城乡收入差距、劳动力质量与中国经济增长[J].经济研究,2014(6):30-43.CHAO Xiao-jing. Urban-rural Income Disparity, Labor Quality and Economic Growth in China[J]. Economic Research Journal,2014(6):30-43.
[2]蔡昉.中国的人口红利还能持续多久[J].经济学动态,2011(6):3-7.CAI Fang. How Long Does Demographic Dividend Persist in China[J]. Journal of Economic Perspective,2011(6):3-7.
[3] GALOR O, ZEIRA J. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1993,60(1):35-52.
[4]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998(6):3-10.LIN Yi-fu, CAI Fang, LI Zhou. Analysis of Regional Disparity in Transform Period of China[J]. Economic Research Journal,1998(6):3-10.
[5]厉以宁.论城乡二元体制改革[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,45(2):5-11.LI Yi-ning. The Reform of the Rural-urban Dualism[J].Journal of Peking University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2008,45(2):5-11.
[6] DEMURGER S. Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth:An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2001, 29(1):95-117.
[7]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与经济增长:中国区域差距的视角[J].中国工业经济,2010(4):14-23.LIU Sheng-long, HU An-gang. Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth:Perspective from China’ s Regional Disparities[J]. China Industrial Economics,2010(4):14-23.
[8]黄乾,余玲铮,魏下海.交通基础设施能缩小城乡收入差距吗:基于中国数据的经验分析[J].河北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2013,38(4):44-52.HUANG Qian, YU Ling-zheng, WEI Xia-hai. Can Transport Infrastructure Decline Urban-rural Income Gap:Empirical Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Hebei University:Philosophy and Social Science Edition,2013,38(4):44-52.
[9]罗能生,彭郁.交通基础设施建设有助于改善城乡收入公平吗?:基于省级空间面板数据的实证检验[J].产业经济研究,2016(4):100-110.LUO Neng-sheng, PENG Yu. Transport Infrastructure Construction and Urban-rural Income Equality:An Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data[J].Industrial Economics Research,2016(4):100-110.
[10]张培刚,张建华.发展经济学[M]. 2版.北京:北京大学出版社,2009:25-30.ZHANG Pei-gang, ZHANG Jian-hua. Development Economics[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing:Peking University Press,2009:25-30.
[11]王庆云.交通运输与经济发展的内在联系[J].综合运输,2003(7):4-7.WANG Qing-yun. Internal Connect between Transport and Economic Development[J]. China Transportation Review,2003(7):4-7.
[12] LAKSHMANAN T R. The Broader Economic Consequences of Transport Infrastructure Investments[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,2010,19(1):1-12.
[13]李家伟,刘秉镰.中国区域交通基础设施发展的制度与政策研究[J].物流技术,2008,27(3):1-5.LI Jia-wei,LIU Bing-lian. Study on Systems and Policies of Developing China Regional Traffic Infrastructure[J].Logistics Technology,2008,27(3):1-5.
[14]凯恩斯J M.就业利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2005:80-85.KEYNES J M. The General Theory of Employment,Interest,and Money[M]. Beijing:Commercial Press,2005:80-85.
[15]巴罗R,马丁X.经济增长[M]. 2版.上海:格致出版社,2010:85-92.BARRO R,MARTIN X. Economic Growth[M]. 2nd ed.Shanghai:Truth&Wisdom Press,2010:85-92.
[16]藤田昌久,克鲁格曼P,维纳布尔斯A J.空间经济学:城市、区域与国际贸易[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011:45-55.FUJITA K, KRUGMAN P, VENABLES A J. Spatial Economics:Urban, Regional and International Trade[M]. Beijing:Renmin University of China Press,2011:45-55.
[17]李平.基础设施与经济发展的文献综述[J].世界经济,2011(5):25-35.LI Ping. Summary of Infrastructure and Economic Development[J]. Journal of World Economy,2011,35(5):25-35.
[18]孙强,王庆云,高咏玲.交通基础设施投资的地区结构优化模型[J].北京交通大学学报:社会科学版,2012,11(4):12-21.SUN Qiang, WANG Qing-yun, GAO Yong-ling. An Optimized Model of Regional Allocation of Transport Infrastructure Investment[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University:Social Science Edition,2012,11(4):12-21.
[19]王利彬,吴群琪.运输业投资对经济拉动作用的计算方法[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2006,26(3):72-75.WANG Li-bin, WU Qun-qi. Contribution Measuring Method of Transportation Development to National Economy Growth[J]. Journal of Chang’ an University:Natural Science Edition,2006,26(3):72-75.
[20]郑士源,王浣尘.交通基础设施最优投资比例的研究[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版,2009,33(1):61-63.ZHENG Shi-yuan,WANG Huan-chen. Research on the Optimal Ratio of Transportation Infrastructure Investment[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Transportation Science&Engineering Edition,2009,33(1):61-63.
[21] LITMAN T. Evaluating Transportation Equity[J]. World Transport Policy&Practices,2002,8(2):42-49.
[22] MORISUGI H. Evaluation Methodologies for Transport Projects in Japan[J]. Transport Policy, 2000, 7(1):35-40.
[23]杨朗,石京,陆化普.道路设施项目投资公平性的评价方法[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2005,45(9):1162-1165.YANG Lang,SHI Jing,LU Hua-pu. Equity Evaluation of Road Projects Investment[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology Edition,2005,45(9):1162-1165.
[24]于海松,蒲云,刘海旭,等.经济分布形态下的地区交通投资结构优化[J].上海交通大学学报,2015,49(4):450-456.YU Hai-song, PU Yun, LIU Hai-xu, et al. Regional Transportation Investment Structure Optimization under Economic Distribution Pattern[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2015,49(4):450-456.
[25] SU Xue-juan. The Allocation of Public Funds in a Hierarchical Educational System[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2004, 28(12):2485-2510.
[26]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.公共教育政策、经济增长与人力资本溢价[J].经济研究,2009(10):22-35.GUO Qing-wang,JIA Jun-xue. Public Education Policy,Economic Growth and Human Capital Premium[J].Economic Research Journal,2009(10):22-35.
[27] CANNING D. The Contribution of Infrastructure to Aggregate Output[R]. Washington, D. C.:World Bank,1999.
[28]高峰.交通基础设施投资与经济增长[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2005.GAO Feng. Transport Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth[M]. Beijing:China Financial and Economic Publishing House,2005.
[29]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.ZHANG Jun, WU Gui-ying, ZHANG Ji-peng, et al.Estimation of China Provincial Capital Stock(1952—2000)[J]. Economic Research Journal,2004(10):35-44.
[30]何刚,陈文静.公共资本和私人资本的生产效率及其区域差异:基于分位数回归模型的研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(9):42-51.HE Gang,CHEN Wen-jing. The Productive Efficiency and Regional Disparities of Public Capital and Private Capital[J]. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2008(9):42-51.
[31]刘秉镰,刘勇.对我国公路水运交通省际资本存量(1952—2004)的估算[J].北京交通大学学报:社会科学版,2007,6(3):44-48.LIU Bing-lian, LIU Yong. Estimation in China Cumulative Amount of Highway and Waterway Capital(1952—2004)[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition,2007,6(3):44-48.
[32] DE LA CROIX D,MICHEL P M. A Theory of Economic Growth:Dynamics and Policy in Overlapping Generations[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002.
[33]国家统计局.北京市2016年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.National Bureau of Statistics. 2016 Statistics Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development of Beijing City[J]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.
[34]交通运输部. 2016年交通运输行业发展统计公报[J].北京:人民交通出版社,2016.Ministry of Transport. Statistics Bulletin on Transportation Industry Development in 2016[J]. Beijing:China Communications Press,2016.
[2]蔡昉.中国的人口红利还能持续多久[J].经济学动态,2011(6):3-7.CAI Fang. How Long Does Demographic Dividend Persist in China[J]. Journal of Economic Perspective,2011(6):3-7.
[3] GALOR O, ZEIRA J. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1993,60(1):35-52.
[4]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998(6):3-10.LIN Yi-fu, CAI Fang, LI Zhou. Analysis of Regional Disparity in Transform Period of China[J]. Economic Research Journal,1998(6):3-10.
[5]厉以宁.论城乡二元体制改革[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,45(2):5-11.LI Yi-ning. The Reform of the Rural-urban Dualism[J].Journal of Peking University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2008,45(2):5-11.
[6] DEMURGER S. Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth:An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2001, 29(1):95-117.
[7]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与经济增长:中国区域差距的视角[J].中国工业经济,2010(4):14-23.LIU Sheng-long, HU An-gang. Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth:Perspective from China’ s Regional Disparities[J]. China Industrial Economics,2010(4):14-23.
[8]黄乾,余玲铮,魏下海.交通基础设施能缩小城乡收入差距吗:基于中国数据的经验分析[J].河北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2013,38(4):44-52.HUANG Qian, YU Ling-zheng, WEI Xia-hai. Can Transport Infrastructure Decline Urban-rural Income Gap:Empirical Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Hebei University:Philosophy and Social Science Edition,2013,38(4):44-52.
[9]罗能生,彭郁.交通基础设施建设有助于改善城乡收入公平吗?:基于省级空间面板数据的实证检验[J].产业经济研究,2016(4):100-110.LUO Neng-sheng, PENG Yu. Transport Infrastructure Construction and Urban-rural Income Equality:An Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data[J].Industrial Economics Research,2016(4):100-110.
[10]张培刚,张建华.发展经济学[M]. 2版.北京:北京大学出版社,2009:25-30.ZHANG Pei-gang, ZHANG Jian-hua. Development Economics[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing:Peking University Press,2009:25-30.
[11]王庆云.交通运输与经济发展的内在联系[J].综合运输,2003(7):4-7.WANG Qing-yun. Internal Connect between Transport and Economic Development[J]. China Transportation Review,2003(7):4-7.
[12] LAKSHMANAN T R. The Broader Economic Consequences of Transport Infrastructure Investments[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,2010,19(1):1-12.
[13]李家伟,刘秉镰.中国区域交通基础设施发展的制度与政策研究[J].物流技术,2008,27(3):1-5.LI Jia-wei,LIU Bing-lian. Study on Systems and Policies of Developing China Regional Traffic Infrastructure[J].Logistics Technology,2008,27(3):1-5.
[14]凯恩斯J M.就业利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2005:80-85.KEYNES J M. The General Theory of Employment,Interest,and Money[M]. Beijing:Commercial Press,2005:80-85.
[15]巴罗R,马丁X.经济增长[M]. 2版.上海:格致出版社,2010:85-92.BARRO R,MARTIN X. Economic Growth[M]. 2nd ed.Shanghai:Truth&Wisdom Press,2010:85-92.
[16]藤田昌久,克鲁格曼P,维纳布尔斯A J.空间经济学:城市、区域与国际贸易[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011:45-55.FUJITA K, KRUGMAN P, VENABLES A J. Spatial Economics:Urban, Regional and International Trade[M]. Beijing:Renmin University of China Press,2011:45-55.
[17]李平.基础设施与经济发展的文献综述[J].世界经济,2011(5):25-35.LI Ping. Summary of Infrastructure and Economic Development[J]. Journal of World Economy,2011,35(5):25-35.
[18]孙强,王庆云,高咏玲.交通基础设施投资的地区结构优化模型[J].北京交通大学学报:社会科学版,2012,11(4):12-21.SUN Qiang, WANG Qing-yun, GAO Yong-ling. An Optimized Model of Regional Allocation of Transport Infrastructure Investment[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University:Social Science Edition,2012,11(4):12-21.
[19]王利彬,吴群琪.运输业投资对经济拉动作用的计算方法[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2006,26(3):72-75.WANG Li-bin, WU Qun-qi. Contribution Measuring Method of Transportation Development to National Economy Growth[J]. Journal of Chang’ an University:Natural Science Edition,2006,26(3):72-75.
[20]郑士源,王浣尘.交通基础设施最优投资比例的研究[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版,2009,33(1):61-63.ZHENG Shi-yuan,WANG Huan-chen. Research on the Optimal Ratio of Transportation Infrastructure Investment[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Transportation Science&Engineering Edition,2009,33(1):61-63.
[21] LITMAN T. Evaluating Transportation Equity[J]. World Transport Policy&Practices,2002,8(2):42-49.
[22] MORISUGI H. Evaluation Methodologies for Transport Projects in Japan[J]. Transport Policy, 2000, 7(1):35-40.
[23]杨朗,石京,陆化普.道路设施项目投资公平性的评价方法[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2005,45(9):1162-1165.YANG Lang,SHI Jing,LU Hua-pu. Equity Evaluation of Road Projects Investment[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology Edition,2005,45(9):1162-1165.
[24]于海松,蒲云,刘海旭,等.经济分布形态下的地区交通投资结构优化[J].上海交通大学学报,2015,49(4):450-456.YU Hai-song, PU Yun, LIU Hai-xu, et al. Regional Transportation Investment Structure Optimization under Economic Distribution Pattern[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2015,49(4):450-456.
[25] SU Xue-juan. The Allocation of Public Funds in a Hierarchical Educational System[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2004, 28(12):2485-2510.
[26]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.公共教育政策、经济增长与人力资本溢价[J].经济研究,2009(10):22-35.GUO Qing-wang,JIA Jun-xue. Public Education Policy,Economic Growth and Human Capital Premium[J].Economic Research Journal,2009(10):22-35.
[27] CANNING D. The Contribution of Infrastructure to Aggregate Output[R]. Washington, D. C.:World Bank,1999.
[28]高峰.交通基础设施投资与经济增长[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2005.GAO Feng. Transport Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth[M]. Beijing:China Financial and Economic Publishing House,2005.
[29]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.ZHANG Jun, WU Gui-ying, ZHANG Ji-peng, et al.Estimation of China Provincial Capital Stock(1952—2000)[J]. Economic Research Journal,2004(10):35-44.
[30]何刚,陈文静.公共资本和私人资本的生产效率及其区域差异:基于分位数回归模型的研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(9):42-51.HE Gang,CHEN Wen-jing. The Productive Efficiency and Regional Disparities of Public Capital and Private Capital[J]. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2008(9):42-51.
[31]刘秉镰,刘勇.对我国公路水运交通省际资本存量(1952—2004)的估算[J].北京交通大学学报:社会科学版,2007,6(3):44-48.LIU Bing-lian, LIU Yong. Estimation in China Cumulative Amount of Highway and Waterway Capital(1952—2004)[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition,2007,6(3):44-48.
[32] DE LA CROIX D,MICHEL P M. A Theory of Economic Growth:Dynamics and Policy in Overlapping Generations[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002.
[33]国家统计局.北京市2016年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.National Bureau of Statistics. 2016 Statistics Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development of Beijing City[J]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.
[34]交通运输部. 2016年交通运输行业发展统计公报[J].北京:人民交通出版社,2016.Ministry of Transport. Statistics Bulletin on Transportation Industry Development in 2016[J]. Beijing:China Communications Press,2016.