中国城城流动人口的空间分布、流动规律及其形成机制
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摘要
在人口城城流动日益成为中国人口流动的重要形式背景下,基于人口普查数据和流动人口动态监测数据,分别探讨城城流动人口空间流动的结果、过程和成因,也就是探讨城城流动人口的空间分布、流动轨迹及形成机制。研究表明:城城流动人口倾向于向发达地区和大城市流动,同时在流动过程中会考虑空间的邻近;地区间经济发展水平、就业机会以及高水平教育医疗设施的差距是诱发城城人口流动的内在动力,而在实际的流动过程中会综合考虑由于空间摩擦而产生的金钱成本、心理压力等障碍;同时,已有城城流动人口存量会通过减少适应流入地的成本、提供相应的生活和就业信息等方式降低流动成本,刺激城城流动人口按照已有路径流动。借鉴西方发达国家人口流动的阶段划分,认为中国人口流动仍然处于从小城镇进入大城市的阶段。在这一时间节点上,依据人口流动的自然规律,鼓励人口向大城市流动,并通过发展副中心和卫星城等形式疏散中心区功能,推动城市郊区化发展才符合城市发展的自然逻辑。
The population flow between cities not only reflects the choice of the urban population who voted with their feet based on different development levels of urban economy,society, and public services, but also exerts a direct bearing on the success of rational and orderly movement of population, coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and the new-type urbanization strategies. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the spatial flowing laws and driving mechanism of urban-to-urban population flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of population and the new-type urbanization strategy.In the context of the increasing amounts of urban-to-urban floating population in China, this paper discusses the results, processes, and causes of the spatial mobility of floating population in urban areas based on data of population census and dynamic monitoring of floating population. In addition, it studies the spatial distribution, flow trajectory and forming mechanism of urban-to-urban floating population. This paper uses Arcgis to visualize the spatial distribution and main flow trajectories of inter-cities floating population, then uses regression equations to analyze the main factors driving population movement between cities.The results of this paper indicate that the urban-to-urban floating population tends to flow to developed regions and metropolises, during the process of which the proximity of destination is considered; gaps among regions in terms of economic development, employment opportunities,and high levels of education and medical facilities are the internal impetus to the flow of urbanto-urban floating population, while comprehensive consideration will be given to obstacles such as money costs and psychological pressure generated by space friction; at the same time,the existing urban-to-urban floating population will reduce the flow costs, and stimulate the flow of urban-to-urban floating population according to existing routes by reducing the cost of inflows, and providing living and employment information. According to the stage division of population flow in the developed countries, it is discovered that the population movement in China is still transforming from the stage where people move from small cities and towns to metropolises. At this time point, the government should encourage the flow of population to large cities according to the natural law of population movement, decentralize the functions of the central area through the development of sub-centers and satellite cities, and promote the development of urban suburbanization, which are in line with the natural logic of urban development.
The population flow between cities not only reflects the choice of the urban population who voted with their feet based on different development levels of urban economy,society, and public services, but also exerts a direct bearing on the success of rational and orderly movement of population, coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and the new-type urbanization strategies. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the spatial flowing laws and driving mechanism of urban-to-urban population flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of population and the new-type urbanization strategy.In the context of the increasing amounts of urban-to-urban floating population in China, this paper discusses the results, processes, and causes of the spatial mobility of floating population in urban areas based on data of population census and dynamic monitoring of floating population. In addition, it studies the spatial distribution, flow trajectory and forming mechanism of urban-to-urban floating population. This paper uses Arcgis to visualize the spatial distribution and main flow trajectories of inter-cities floating population, then uses regression equations to analyze the main factors driving population movement between cities.The results of this paper indicate that the urban-to-urban floating population tends to flow to developed regions and metropolises, during the process of which the proximity of destination is considered; gaps among regions in terms of economic development, employment opportunities,and high levels of education and medical facilities are the internal impetus to the flow of urbanto-urban floating population, while comprehensive consideration will be given to obstacles such as money costs and psychological pressure generated by space friction; at the same time,the existing urban-to-urban floating population will reduce the flow costs, and stimulate the flow of urban-to-urban floating population according to existing routes by reducing the cost of inflows, and providing living and employment information. According to the stage division of population flow in the developed countries, it is discovered that the population movement in China is still transforming from the stage where people move from small cities and towns to metropolises. At this time point, the government should encourage the flow of population to large cities according to the natural law of population movement, decentralize the functions of the central area through the development of sub-centers and satellite cities, and promote the development of urban suburbanization, which are in line with the natural logic of urban development.
引文
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[31]朱传耿,顾朝林,马荣华,等.中国流动人口的影响要素与空间分布.地理学报,2001,56(5):549-560.[Zhu Chuangeng,Gu Chaolin,Ma Ronghua,et al.The influential factors and spatial distribution of floating population in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,56(5):549-560.]
[32]刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应.地理学报,2015,70(4):567-581.[Liu Tao,Qi Yuanjing,Cao Guangzhong.China's floating population in the 21st century:Uneven landscape,influencing factors,and effects on urbanization.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(4):567-581.]
[33]杜鹏,张航空.中国流动人口梯次流动的实证研究.人口学刊,2011,32(4):14-20.[Du Peng,Zhang Hangkong.An empirical study on the laddering migration of china's floating population.Population Journal,2011,32(4):14-20.]
[34]张耀军,岑俏.中国人口空间流动格局与省际流动影响因素研究.人口研究,2014,38(5):54-71.[Zhang Yaojun,Cen Qiao.Spatial patterns of population mobility and determinants of inter-provincial migration in China.Population Research,2014,38(5):54-71.]
[35]林李月,朱宇.中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素:基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据.地理学报,2016,71(10):1696-1709.[Lin Liyue,Zhu Yu.Spatial variation and its determinants of migrants'Hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture-and provincial-level cities:Evidence from the 2012 national migration population dymanic monitoring survey.Acta Geographical Sinica,2016,71(10):1696-1709.]
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[2]王桂新.中国经济体制改革以来省际人口迁移区域模式及其变化.人口与经济,2000,20(1):8-22.[Wang Guixin.The regional model of inter-provincial population migration and its changes since the reform of China's economy.Population&Economics,2000,20(1):8-22.]
[3]蔡昉.城乡收入差距与制度变革的临界点.中国社会科学,2013,23(5):16-25.[Cai Fang.Rural urban income gap and critical point of institutional change.Social Sciences in China,2013,23(5):16-25.]
[4]段成荣,杨舸.我国流动人口的流入地分布变动趋势研究.人口研究,2009,33(6):1-12.[Duan Chengrong,Yang Ge.Trends in destination distribution of floating population in China.Population Research,2009,33(6):1-12.]
[5]郑杭生,陆益龙.开放、改革与包容性发展:大转型大流动时期的城市流动人口管理.学海,2011,21(6):76-80.[Zheng Hangsheng,Lu Yilong.Openness,reform and inclusive development:Urban floating population management in the period of great transition.Academia Bimestris,2011,21(6):76-80.]
[6]马晓红,段成荣,郭静.四类流动人口的比较研究.中国人口科学,2014,27(5):36-46.[Ma Xiaohong,Duan Chengrong,Guo Jing.A comparative study on four types of floating population.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2014,27(5):36-46.]
[7]夏怡然,陆铭.城市间的“孟母三迁”:公共服务影响劳动力流向的经验研究.管理世界,2015,30(10):78-90.[Xia Yiran,Lu Ming.The"Three Immigrants of Mencius'mother"in cities:An empirical study on the influence of public services on the flow of labor force.Management World,2015,30(10):78-90.]
[8]刘妮娜,刘诚.合理、有序推进中国人口城镇化的路径分析.经济学家,2014,25(2):21-27.[Liu Nina,Liu Cheng.Path analysis of reasonably and orderly promoting China's population urbanization.Economist,2014,25(2):21-27.]
[9]杨菊华.中国流动人口的社会融入研究.中国社会科学,2015,35(2):61-79.[Yang Juhua.Research on the assimilation of the the floating population in China.Social Sciences in China,2015,35(2):61-79.]
[10]于海燕.新居民公共服务供给机制研究:基于浙江省的实证调查.长春:吉林大学博士学位论文,2016.[Yu Haiyan.Research on the supply mechanism of public service of new residents:Based on the empirical investigation in Zhejiang province.Changchun:Doctoral Dissertation of Jilin University,2016.]
[11]杨菊华.城乡分割、经济发展与乡-城流动人口的收入融入研究.人口学刊,2011,32(5):3-15.[Yang Juhua.The effects of hukou and development on floating on earnings of different types of migrants.Population Journal,2011,32(5):3-15.]
[12]赵时亮,高扬.基于移动通信的人口流动信息大数据分析方法与应用.人口与社会,2014,30(3):20-26.[Zhao Shiliang,Gao Yang.Big data migrationanalysis method and application based on mobile communication.Population and Society,2014,30(3):20-26.]
[13]林李月,朱宇.流动人口城市间流动的时空结构特征及其性别差异:基于福建省的实证研究.地理科学,2015,35(6):725-732.[Lin Liyue,Zhu Yu.The space-time paths of the migrants'mobility across cities and their gender difference:Based on a survey in Fujian province.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(6):725-732.]
[14]Salvati L,Serra P,Bencardino M,et al.Re-urbanizing the European city:A multivariate analysis of population dynamics during expansion and recession times.European Journal of Population,2018,(4):1-28.
[15]Halfacree KH,Boyle PJ.The challenge facing migration research:The case for a biographical approach.Progress in Human Geography,1993,17(3):333.
[16]Ottaviano G,Thisse J F.Agglomeration and economic geography.Handbook of regional and urban economics,2004,(4):2563-2608.
[17]Dadashpoor H,Alidadi M.Towards decentralization:Spatial changes of employment and population in Tehran Metropolitan Region,Iran.Applied Geography,2017,85:51-61.
[18]Gregory K.Patterns of metropolitan development:What we have learned?.Urban Studies,1998,35(7):1024.
[19]Sjaastad L A.The coat and returns of human migration.Journal of Political Economy,1962,(51):533-565.
[20]Lewis W A.Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour.The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies,1955,(22):139-191.
[21]Lee E S.A theory of migration.Demography,1966,(1):47-57.
[22]Stark O,Bloom O E.The new economics of labor migration.American Economic Review,1985,(75):173-178.
[23]Piore M J.The Dual Labour Market,Theory And Application.Cambridge:Cambridge Mass Winthrop,1970.
[24]Wallenstein I.Geopolitics and Geoculture:Essays on the Changing World-system.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1991.
[25]马红旗,陈仲常.我国省际流动人口的特征:基于全国第六次人口普查数据.人口研究,2012,36(6):87-99.[Ma Hongqi,Chen Zhongchang.Patterns of Inter-provincial migration in China:Evidence from the sixth population census.Population Research,2012,36(6):87-99.]
[26]姚华松,许学强.西方人口迁移研究进展.世界地理研究,2008,17(1):154-166.[Yao Huasong,Xu Xueqiang.Progress of research on migration in Western Countries.World Regional Studies,2008,17(1):154-166.]
[27]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征.地理学报,2010,65(1):1187-1197.[Liu Shenghe,Deng Yu,Hu Zhang.Research on classification methods and spatial patterns of the regional types of China's floating population.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(1):1187-1197.]
[28]姚华松,许学强,薛德升.广州流动人口空间分布变化特征及原因分析.经济地理,2010,30(1):40-46.[Yao Huasong,Xu Xueqiang,Xue Desheng.On spatial distribution and evaluative laws of floating population in Guangzhou.Economic Geography,2010,30(1):40-46.]
[29]鲁奇,王国霞,杨春悦,等.流动人口分布与区域经济发展关系若干解释(1990、2000).地理研究,2006,25(5):765-774.[Lu Qi,Wang Guoxia,Yang Chunyue,et al.Some explanations to the relationships between the geographical distribution change of migrants and economic development change in regions of China,1990 and 2000.Geographical Research,2006,25(5):765-774.]
[30]鲁奇,吴佩林,鲁礼新,等.北京流动人口特征与经济发展关系的区域差异.地理学报,2004,60(5):851-862.[Lu Qi,Wu Peilin,Lu Lixin,et al.The relation between the characteristics of the migrants and the economic development in Beijing and the regional differentiation of their distribution.Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,60(5):851-862.]
[31]朱传耿,顾朝林,马荣华,等.中国流动人口的影响要素与空间分布.地理学报,2001,56(5):549-560.[Zhu Chuangeng,Gu Chaolin,Ma Ronghua,et al.The influential factors and spatial distribution of floating population in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,56(5):549-560.]
[32]刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应.地理学报,2015,70(4):567-581.[Liu Tao,Qi Yuanjing,Cao Guangzhong.China's floating population in the 21st century:Uneven landscape,influencing factors,and effects on urbanization.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(4):567-581.]
[33]杜鹏,张航空.中国流动人口梯次流动的实证研究.人口学刊,2011,32(4):14-20.[Du Peng,Zhang Hangkong.An empirical study on the laddering migration of china's floating population.Population Journal,2011,32(4):14-20.]
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