长白山景区旅游安全风险动态评价研究
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摘要
以长白山景区旅游安全为研究对象,以鱼骨图、动态贝叶斯、GIS技术等为基本研究方法,从研究区自然环境、社会环境及责任人为3个方面出发,筛选景区致险因子,构建景区旅游安全风险危险性评价指标体系,利用动态贝叶斯方法综合构建景区旅游安全风险动态评价模型;并以实测数据及景区统计数据为依据,划分景区旅游安全风险评价的4个动态时段,综合实现景区旅游安全风险动态风险评价。研究结果表明:①中等以上风险区域呈条带状分布;②高风险区域与主要景点重合;③长白山景区安全风险发生高概率的时段发生在第三个时段(12:00～14:00);较高概率发生分别在第二个时段(10:00～12:00)与第四个时段(14:00～16:00);中等概率发生较高的时段在第四个时段(14:00～16:00);较低概率发生在第一个时段(8:00～10:00)。
Taking the tourism safety of the Changbai Mountains as the research object, using fishbone diagrams, dynamic Bayesian network and GIS technology as the basic research methods, this article establishes the Changbai Mountains tourism safety risk evaluation model. It starts from the natural environment, social environment and human responsibility to screen disaster-causing factors of the scenic spot and construct the evaluation index system of tourism safety risk in the scenic spot. The article uses dynamic Bayesian network to synthetically construct the dynamic evaluation model of tourism safety risk in the scenic spot. The measured data and scenic statistical data were analyzed, and the whole day is divided into 4 dynamic periods of tourism safety risk evaluation to comprehensively realize the dynamic evaluation. The results showed that: 1) The middle risks and above are distributed in a strap-shape region; 2) The higher risk rigions are concided with the scenic spots; 3) The highest probability period of the Changbai Mountains scenic spot safety risk is in the third period(12:00-14:00). The higher probability occurs in the second period(10:00-12:00) and(14:00-16:00), and the lower probability occurs in the first period(8:00-10:00).
Taking the tourism safety of the Changbai Mountains as the research object, using fishbone diagrams, dynamic Bayesian network and GIS technology as the basic research methods, this article establishes the Changbai Mountains tourism safety risk evaluation model. It starts from the natural environment, social environment and human responsibility to screen disaster-causing factors of the scenic spot and construct the evaluation index system of tourism safety risk in the scenic spot. The article uses dynamic Bayesian network to synthetically construct the dynamic evaluation model of tourism safety risk in the scenic spot. The measured data and scenic statistical data were analyzed, and the whole day is divided into 4 dynamic periods of tourism safety risk evaluation to comprehensively realize the dynamic evaluation. The results showed that: 1) The middle risks and above are distributed in a strap-shape region; 2) The higher risk rigions are concided with the scenic spots; 3) The highest probability period of the Changbai Mountains scenic spot safety risk is in the third period(12:00-14:00). The higher probability occurs in the second period(10:00-12:00) and(14:00-16:00), and the lower probability occurs in the first period(8:00-10:00).
引文
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[18]罗景峰.旅游安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(4):151-156.[Luo Jingfeng.Set pair analysis-variable fuzzy method for tourism safety early warning.China Safety Science Journal, 2015,25(4):151-156.]
[19]叶欣梁,温家洪,邓贵平.基于多情景的景区自然灾害风险评价方法研究——以九寨沟树正寨为例[J].旅游学刊,2014,29(7):47-57.[Ye Xinliang,Wen Jiahong,Deng Guiping.Research on the natural disaster risk assessment in tourist area based on multi-scenarios technique:A case in Shuzheng Village of Jiuzhai Valley. Tourism Tribune, 2014,29(7):47-57.]
[20]孙滢悦,陈鹏,张立峰.两种空间尺度的区域旅游资源灾害风险评价[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(7):1861-1866.[Sun Yingyue,Chen Peng,Zhang Lifeng.Risk assessment of regional tourism resource disaster of two kinds of spatial scale.Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2016,55(7):1861-1866.]
[2] Zahed Ghaderi, Behnaz Saboori, Mana Khoshkam.Does security matter in tourism demand?[J]. Current Issues in Tourism,2017,20(6):552-565.
[3] Anita Eves, Panagiota Dervisi. Experiences of the implementation and operation of hazard analysis critical control point s in the food service sector[J].International Journal of Hospitality Management, 2005, 24(1):3-19.
[4] Carol B Brown. Tourism, crime and risk perception:An examination of broadcast media's framing of negative Aruban sentiment in the Natalee Holloway case and its impact on tourism demand[J]. Tourism Management Perspectives, 2015,16:266-277.
[5]刘丽,陆林,陈浩.基于目的地形象理论的旅游危机管理——以中国四川地震为例[J].旅游学刊,2009, 24(10):27-29.[Liu Li,Lu Lin, Chen Hao. Tourism crisis management based on the theory of destination image—A case study of Sichuan earthquake, China. Tourism Tribune, 2009, 24(10):27-29.]
[6] Simpson M C,D Viner.Alternative futures for coastal and marine tourism in England and Wales and international workshop on climate, tourism and recreation[C].Crete, Kolimbari:Commission Climate, Tourism and Recreation,2004.
[7] RitchieB.Tourism disaster planning and management from response and recovery to reduction and readiness[J].Current Issues in Tourism, 2008, 11(5):315-348.
[8] Cioccio L,Michael E J.Hazard or disaster tourism management for the inevitable in Northeast Victoria[J].Tourism Management,2007, 28(1):1-11.
[9]刘浩龙,葛全胜,席建超.区域旅游资源的灾害风险评估——以内蒙古克什克腾旗为例[J].资源科学,2007,29(1):118-125.[Liu Haolong,Ge Quansheng, Xi Jianchao. Disaster risks assessment of regional tourism resources:A case study of Inner Mongolia Keshiketeng Banner. Resources Science, 2007,29(1):118-125.]
[10]罗振军,佟瑞鹏.旅游景区安全容量分析与事故风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(2):150-156.[Luo Zhenjun,Tong Ruipeng.Analysis on safety capacity and assessment of accident risk in tourismspot.China Safety Science Journal, 2008,18(2):150-156.]
[11]殷杰,尹占娥,许世远.上海市灾害综合风险定量评估研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(3):450-454.[Yin Jie, Yin Zhan’e, Xu Shiyuan.Urban-disasters composite risk assessment of Shanghai.Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2009,29(3):450-454.]
[12]赵黎明,刘慧媛.旅游目的地系统的生态灾害风险评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,10(24):186-188.[Zhao Liming,Liu Huiyuan. Assessment of tourism system′s ecological disaster risk based on fuzzy matter element model. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2010,10(24):186-188.]
[13]席建超,刘浩龙,齐晓波,等.旅游地安全风险评估模式研究——以国内10条重点探险旅游线路为例[J].山地学报,2007,25(3):370-375.[Xi Jianchao,Liu Haolong,Qi Xiaobo et al.The risk assessment model of tourism destination—Taking ten adventure tourism lines as a case study.Journal of Mountain Science, 2007,25(3):370-375.]
[14]胡议丹.长白山文化的内涵及其价值[N].吉林日报,2017-08-04:013.[Hu Yidan.The connotation and value of Changbai mountain culture. Jilin Daily,2017-08-04:013.]
[15] Fajar Pitarsi Dharma,Zulfa Fitri Ikatrinasari,Humiras Hardi Purba et al. Reducing non conformance quality of yarn using Pareto Principles and Fishbone Diagram in textile industry[J]. IOP Conference Series:Materials Science and Engineering,2019,508(1):1-7.
[16]曾莉,李晶,李婷,等.基于贝叶斯网络的水源涵养服务空间格局优化[J].地理学报,2018,73(9):1809-1822.[Zheng Li,Li Jing,Li Ting et al.Optimizing spatial patterns of water conservation ecosystem service based on Bayesian belief networks.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(9):1809-1822.]
[17]长白山保护开发区年鉴编纂工作领导小组.长白山保护开发区年鉴[M].长春:吉林文史出版社,2016.[Changbai Mountains Protection Development Zone Yearbook Compilation Work Leading Group. Changbai Mountains protection and development zone yearbook. Changchun:Jilin Literature and History Press,2016.]
[18]罗景峰.旅游安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(4):151-156.[Luo Jingfeng.Set pair analysis-variable fuzzy method for tourism safety early warning.China Safety Science Journal, 2015,25(4):151-156.]
[19]叶欣梁,温家洪,邓贵平.基于多情景的景区自然灾害风险评价方法研究——以九寨沟树正寨为例[J].旅游学刊,2014,29(7):47-57.[Ye Xinliang,Wen Jiahong,Deng Guiping.Research on the natural disaster risk assessment in tourist area based on multi-scenarios technique:A case in Shuzheng Village of Jiuzhai Valley. Tourism Tribune, 2014,29(7):47-57.]
[20]孙滢悦,陈鹏,张立峰.两种空间尺度的区域旅游资源灾害风险评价[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(7):1861-1866.[Sun Yingyue,Chen Peng,Zhang Lifeng.Risk assessment of regional tourism resource disaster of two kinds of spatial scale.Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2016,55(7):1861-1866.]