融合情景分析的战略性新兴产业技术路径图框架构建与案例分析——以中国新能源汽车产业为例
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摘要
针对目前战略性新兴产业演进过程中传统技术路径图预测存在的主要问题,本文将应对不确定环境具有显著优势的情景分析与传统描绘产业系统发展愿景的技术路径图进行整合,构建了技术路径图开发与战略性新兴产业演进情景分析相联结的结构框架,以更好地从整体上把握战略性新兴产业的阶段性发展特征和演变趋势。以中国新能源汽车产业为例,从产业的演化环境、产业价值链、产业创新链、产业创新生态系统及产业政策干预等多维度情景进行了分析,为新能源汽车产业的发展提供了基于多情景的产业技术路径规划的基本框架。
Aiming at the main problems existing in the traditional technology route map prediction in the evolution process of strategic emerging industries at present, the papcr integrates scenario analysis with significant advantages to deal with uncertain environment and technical path diagram of traditional description of industrial system development vision, builds framework of technology path map development. Emerging industry evolution scenario analysis is constructed. Therefore, we should better grasp the stage development characteristics and evolution trend of strategic emerging industries as a whole. Taking China's electric vehicle industry as an example, the paper analyzes multi-scenario such as industrial environment, life cycle and innovation ecosystem, and provides a basic framework based on multi-scenario industrial technology path planning for the development of electric vehicle industry.
Aiming at the main problems existing in the traditional technology route map prediction in the evolution process of strategic emerging industries at present, the papcr integrates scenario analysis with significant advantages to deal with uncertain environment and technical path diagram of traditional description of industrial system development vision, builds framework of technology path map development. Emerging industry evolution scenario analysis is constructed. Therefore, we should better grasp the stage development characteristics and evolution trend of strategic emerging industries as a whole. Taking China's electric vehicle industry as an example, the paper analyzes multi-scenario such as industrial environment, life cycle and innovation ecosystem, and provides a basic framework based on multi-scenario industrial technology path planning for the development of electric vehicle industry.
引文
[1] 刘洪民,杨艳东,韩熠超.战略性新兴产业阶段性演进特征及其政策动态调整:一个文献述评[J].科技管理研究,2018,38(7):142.
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[3] 沙振江,张蓉,刘桂锋.国内技术预见方法研究述评[J].情报理论与实践,2015,38(6):140.
[4] 娄伟.情景分析法在技术经济中的应用[J].工业技术经济,2012,31(10):6.
[5] STRAUSS J,RADNOR M.Roadmapping for dynamic and uncertain environments[J].Research Technology Management,2004,47(2):51.
[6] WILLYARD C H,MCCLESS C W.Motor's technology roadmap process[J].Research Management,1987,(5):13.
[7] PHAAL R,FARRUKH C,MITCHELL R.Starting up roadmapping fast[J].Research Technology Management,2003,2(42):52.
[8] GALVIN R.Science roadmaps[J].Science,1998,280(5365):803.
[9] DAVID P,MICHAEL.Frontier experiences from industry-academia consortia[J].Research Technology Management,2003(8):3.
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[14] 王霞.T-plan技术路线图对科技型中小企业战略协同的作用研究[J].科技与管理,2011,13(3):87.
[15] 李欣,黄鲁成.基于技术路线图的新兴产业形成路径研究[J].科技进步与对策,2014,31(1):44.
[16] 黄萃,徐磊,钟笑天,等.基于政策工具的政策—技术路线图(P-TRM)框架构建与实证分析:以中国风机制造业和光伏产业为例[J].中国软科学,2014(5):76.
[17] 盛济川,吉敏,朱晓东.内向和外向开放式创新组织模式研究:基于技术路线图视角[J].科学学研究,2013,31(8):1268.
[18] 娄伟.情景分析方法研究[J].未来与发展,2012(9):17.
[19] 吴一洲,游和远,陈前虎,等.基于多维GIS情景分析的战略规划技术研究[J].城市规划,2014,38(10):35.
[20] LEE C,SONG B,PARK Y.An instrument for scenario based technology roadmapping:how to assess the impacts of future changes on organizational plans[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2015,90(1):285.
[21] ABHIJIT S.A roadmap to the integration of early visual modules[J].International Journal of Computer Vision,2007(1):9.
[22] 曾路,汤勇力,李从东.产业技术路线图:探索战略新兴产业培育路径[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:76.
[23] HENRY C.Disruptive technology:how kodak missed the digital photography revolution[J].The Journal of Strategic Information Systems,2009,18(1):46.
[24] 张志彤,李天柱,银路,等.战略性新兴产业载体配置研究[J].科研管理,2015(4):73.
[25] 汪涛,赵国栋,王婧.战略性新兴产业创新政策研究:以NEVI为例,科研管理,2016,37(6):1.
[26] 卢超,尤建新,戎珂,等.新能源汽车产业政策的国际比较研究[J].科研管理,2014,35(12):26.
[27] 李煜华,王月明.政府行为对战略性新兴产业技术创新联盟的激励效应研究[J].科技与管理,2014,16(2):5.
[2] 佟瑞,李从东.技术路线图研究学科定位及国内外理论与实践评述[J].中国科技论坛,2011(3):142.
[3] 沙振江,张蓉,刘桂锋.国内技术预见方法研究述评[J].情报理论与实践,2015,38(6):140.
[4] 娄伟.情景分析法在技术经济中的应用[J].工业技术经济,2012,31(10):6.
[5] STRAUSS J,RADNOR M.Roadmapping for dynamic and uncertain environments[J].Research Technology Management,2004,47(2):51.
[6] WILLYARD C H,MCCLESS C W.Motor's technology roadmap process[J].Research Management,1987,(5):13.
[7] PHAAL R,FARRUKH C,MITCHELL R.Starting up roadmapping fast[J].Research Technology Management,2003,2(42):52.
[8] GALVIN R.Science roadmaps[J].Science,1998,280(5365):803.
[9] DAVID P,MICHAEL.Frontier experiences from industry-academia consortia[J].Research Technology Management,2003(8):3.
[10] ROBERT P.Technology roadmapping:a planning framework for evolution and revolution[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2004(71):5.
[11] 仪德刚,齐中英.企业提升核心竞争力的重要手段:技术路线图[J].科技管理研究,2007(1):98.
[12] 朱星华.产业技术路线图的广东实践及对政府科学计划管理的建议[J].中国科技论坛,2008(6):81.
[13] 李剑敏,余婉浈.融合情景分析的产业技术路线图集成规划过程研究[J].科技进步与对策,2017,34(3):56.
[14] 王霞.T-plan技术路线图对科技型中小企业战略协同的作用研究[J].科技与管理,2011,13(3):87.
[15] 李欣,黄鲁成.基于技术路线图的新兴产业形成路径研究[J].科技进步与对策,2014,31(1):44.
[16] 黄萃,徐磊,钟笑天,等.基于政策工具的政策—技术路线图(P-TRM)框架构建与实证分析:以中国风机制造业和光伏产业为例[J].中国软科学,2014(5):76.
[17] 盛济川,吉敏,朱晓东.内向和外向开放式创新组织模式研究:基于技术路线图视角[J].科学学研究,2013,31(8):1268.
[18] 娄伟.情景分析方法研究[J].未来与发展,2012(9):17.
[19] 吴一洲,游和远,陈前虎,等.基于多维GIS情景分析的战略规划技术研究[J].城市规划,2014,38(10):35.
[20] LEE C,SONG B,PARK Y.An instrument for scenario based technology roadmapping:how to assess the impacts of future changes on organizational plans[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2015,90(1):285.
[21] ABHIJIT S.A roadmap to the integration of early visual modules[J].International Journal of Computer Vision,2007(1):9.
[22] 曾路,汤勇力,李从东.产业技术路线图:探索战略新兴产业培育路径[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:76.
[23] HENRY C.Disruptive technology:how kodak missed the digital photography revolution[J].The Journal of Strategic Information Systems,2009,18(1):46.
[24] 张志彤,李天柱,银路,等.战略性新兴产业载体配置研究[J].科研管理,2015(4):73.
[25] 汪涛,赵国栋,王婧.战略性新兴产业创新政策研究:以NEVI为例,科研管理,2016,37(6):1.
[26] 卢超,尤建新,戎珂,等.新能源汽车产业政策的国际比较研究[J].科研管理,2014,35(12):26.
[27] 李煜华,王月明.政府行为对战略性新兴产业技术创新联盟的激励效应研究[J].科技与管理,2014,16(2):5.