基于选择实验法的大豆种质农户选择偏好研究
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摘要
农业部于2016年提出"调减玉米,增加大豆"的农业供给侧结构改革,在国产大豆产量和效益低,农民种植意愿不强的背景下,本研究立足于农户种植意愿,利用山东省381户农民对不同大豆种质属性选择的数据,运用选择实验法与多元Logit模型研究农户对大豆种质属性选择偏好并测算各属性经济价值。以低产、早熟、倒伏和低抗病虫的大豆为参照组,研究结果显示:(1)农户对大豆种质属性的选择偏好:抗倒伏>倒伏,高产>中产≥低产,中熟>早熟>晚熟,中抗病虫>高抗病虫>低抗病虫;(2)虽然农户种植大豆的用途有所差异,但是对大豆种质属性选择偏好基本一致;(3)大豆各品种市价低于其种质各属性加总价值,种质经济价值被市场低估。以上结果为提高农户种植大豆的积极性,制定合理的大豆种子市场价格体系,引导大豆育种产业的研究和发展,有效推进大豆产业供给侧改革提供了一定的科学依据。
In 2016,the Ministry of Agriculture proposed the supply-side structure reform program in agricultural sector named‘replacing corn with soybeans',however,due to farmers were reluctant to plant soybeans,the yield and benefit of domesticsoybean planting were low. Based on survey data from 381 farmers' selection of different soybean germplasm attributes inShandong province,this study examines farmers' planting preference for different soybean attributes by adopting the choice ex-periment and multiple logit model,and then calculates the economic value for each attribute respectively. By taking soybeanswith low yields,early maturity,lodging and low resistance to disease as the reference group,our results showed that:(1) Farmers' planting preferences(with respect to soybean germplasm attributes selection) as following,lodging resistance >lodging,high production > middle production≥low production,medium maturity > early maturing > late maturing,middle re-sistance > high resistance≥low resistance to pests.(2) Though the purposes for soybeans planting were different,farmers' planting preferences were consistent for different soybean uses.(3) The market prices of soybeans were lower than the totalvalue of attributes for the targeted soybean varieties,and so the economic value of the soybean germplasm was underestimatedby the market. The above evidences provide certain scientific supports for improving farmers' willingness to plant soybeans,design appropriate market price system of soybeans,guide research and development in soybean breeding industry and effec-tively promote the supply-side structure reform in soybean industry.
In 2016,the Ministry of Agriculture proposed the supply-side structure reform program in agricultural sector named‘replacing corn with soybeans',however,due to farmers were reluctant to plant soybeans,the yield and benefit of domesticsoybean planting were low. Based on survey data from 381 farmers' selection of different soybean germplasm attributes inShandong province,this study examines farmers' planting preference for different soybean attributes by adopting the choice ex-periment and multiple logit model,and then calculates the economic value for each attribute respectively. By taking soybeanswith low yields,early maturity,lodging and low resistance to disease as the reference group,our results showed that:(1) Farmers' planting preferences(with respect to soybean germplasm attributes selection) as following,lodging resistance >lodging,high production > middle production≥low production,medium maturity > early maturing > late maturing,middle re-sistance > high resistance≥low resistance to pests.(2) Though the purposes for soybeans planting were different,farmers' planting preferences were consistent for different soybean uses.(3) The market prices of soybeans were lower than the totalvalue of attributes for the targeted soybean varieties,and so the economic value of the soybean germplasm was underestimatedby the market. The above evidences provide certain scientific supports for improving farmers' willingness to plant soybeans,design appropriate market price system of soybeans,guide research and development in soybean breeding industry and effec-tively promote the supply-side structure reform in soybean industry.
引文
[1] Lancaster K. A new approach to consumer theory[J]. The Jour-nal of Political Economy,1966,74(2):132-157.
[2] Luce R. Individual choice behavior[M]. New York:Wiley,1959.
[3]樊辉,赵敏娟.自然资源非市场价值评估的选择实验法:原理及应用分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(7):1347-1354.(FanH,Zhao M J. Choice experiments for natural resource non-marketevaluation[J]. Resources Science,2013,35(7):1347-1354.)
[4] Adamowicz W,Louviere J,Williams M. Combining revealed andstated preference methods for valuing environmental amenities[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,1994,26(3):271-292.
[5]李艳军,李崇光,杨光圣.基于农户角度的商品种子价值要素效用评价———以油菜种子为例[J].中国农村经济,2009(1):58-69.(Li Y J,Li C G,Yang G S. Evaluation of utilityvalue of commodity seed based on peasant households:Takingrapeseed seeds as an example[J]. Chinese Rural Economy,2009(1):58-69.)
[6] Rambonilaza M,Dachary-Bernard J. Land-use planning and pub-lic preferences:What can we learn from choice experiment method[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2007,83(4):318-326.
[7] Andreopoulos D,Damigos D,Comiti F,et al. Estimating the non-market benefits of climate change adaptation of river ecosystemservices:A choice experiment application in the Aoosbasin,Greece[J]. Environmental Science&Policy,2015,45:92-103.
[8]常向阳,赵璐瑶.江苏省小麦种植农户化肥与农药选择行为分析———基于选择实验法的实证[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(11):551-555.(Chang X Y,Zhao L Y. Analysis on fertilizerand pesticide selection behavior of wheat farmers in Jiangsu prov-ince based on selective experiment method[J]. Jiangsu Agricultur-al Sciences,2015,43(11):551-555.)
[9]马爱慧,张安录.选择实验法视角的耕地生态补偿意愿实证研究———基于湖北武汉市问卷调查[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):2061-2066.(Ma A H,Zhang A L. Cultivated land ecolog-ical compensation willingness based on choice experiments[J].Resources Science,2013,35(10):2061-2066.)
[10]陈琦,都基隆,韩立民,等.消费者对水产品质量安全属性的偏好研究———基于选择实验法的分析[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(9):1040-1044.(Chen Q,Du J L,Han L M,et al.Study on consumers'preference for the quality and safety attributesof aquatic product———Based on analysis of choice experiment[J].Resource Development&Market,2015,31(9):1040-1044.)
[11]蓝菁,夏伟峰,刘立,等.基于选择实验法的生物资源公众保护偏好研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(3):577-584.(Lan J,Xia W F,Liu L,et al. Public preferences for biological resourceconservation based on choice experiment methods[J]. ResourcesScience,2017,39(3):577-584.)
[12]尹世久,徐迎军,陈雨生.食品质量信息标签如何影响消费者偏好———基于山东省843个样本的选择实验[J].中国农村观察,2015(1):39-49.(Yin S J,Xu Y J,Chen Y S. How dofood quality information label affect consumers preferences:Basedon the choice experiment of 843 samples in Shandong province[J]. China Rural Survey,2015(1):39-49.)
[13]杨树果,何秀荣.中国大豆产业状况和观点思考[J].中国农村经济,2014(4):32-41.(Yang S G,He X R. Soybean indus-try status and viewpoints in China[J]. Chinese Rural Economy,2014(4):32-41.)
[14]潘文华,许世卫.黑龙江省大豆产业困境与差异化发展战略[J].农业经济问题,2014,35(2):26-33.(Pan W H,Xu SW. The dilemma and different development strategy of soybean in-dustry in Heilongjiang province[J]. Issues in Agricultural Econo-my,2014,35(2):26-33.)
[15]陆光米,朱再清.我国棉花与玉米、大豆生产效益的比较分析[J].湖南农业科学,2017(9):115-120.(Lu G M,Zhu Z Q.Comparative analysis of cotton,corn and soybean production effi-ciency in China[J]. Hunan Agricultural Sciences,2017(9):115-120.)
[16]刘爱民,于格,于萧萌.大豆主产区主要竞争农作物生产成本与收益分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2005,26(2):35-39.(Liu A M,Yu G,Yu X M. Analysis of production cost andgain of major competing crops at main soybean production regions[J]. Chinese Journal of China Agricultural Resources and Region-al Planning,2005,26(2):35-39.)
[17]杨胜先,牛远,李梦,等.栽培大豆农艺性状的关联分析及优异等位变异挖掘[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(20):3941-3952.(Yang S X,Niu Y,Li M,et al. Association mapping ofagronomic traits in soybean(Glycine max L. Merr.)and mining ofnovel alleles[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2014,47(20):3941-3952.)
[18]梁慧珍,余永亮,杨红旗,等.大豆产量及主要农艺性状QTL的上位性互作和环境互作分析[J].作物学报,2014,40(1):37-44.(Liang H Z,Yu Y L,Yang H Q,et al. Epistatic effectsand QTL×environment interaction effects of QTLs for yield andagronomic traits in soybean[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica,2014,40(1):37-44.)
[19]慈敦伟,张礼凤,汪宝卿,等.大豆种质资源农艺性状和产量的年份间差异及其关系[J].植物遗传资源学报,2011,12(6):872-880.(Ci D W,Zhang L F,Wang B Q,et al. Variationof agronomic traits and production of germplasm resources of soy-bean in different years and the relationship between them[J].Journal of Plant Genetic Resources,2011,12(6):872-880.)
[20]张淑荣,李广,刘稳.我国大豆产业的国际竞争力实证研究与影响因素分析[J].国际贸易问题,2007,293(5):10-15.(Zhang S R,Li G,Liu W. Experimental study and factors analy-sis on the international competition power of Chinese soybean in-dustry[J]. Journal of International Trade,2007,293(5):10-15.)
[21]石春娜,姚顺波,陈晓楠,等.基于选择实验法的城市生态系统服务价值评估———以四川温江为例[J].自然资源学报,2016(5):767-778.(Shi C N,Yao S B,Chen X N,et al. Eco-nomic valuation of ecosystem services based on choice experi-ments:A case study of Wenjiang in Sichuan province[J]. JournalNatural Resources,2016(5):767-778.)
[2] Luce R. Individual choice behavior[M]. New York:Wiley,1959.
[3]樊辉,赵敏娟.自然资源非市场价值评估的选择实验法:原理及应用分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(7):1347-1354.(FanH,Zhao M J. Choice experiments for natural resource non-marketevaluation[J]. Resources Science,2013,35(7):1347-1354.)
[4] Adamowicz W,Louviere J,Williams M. Combining revealed andstated preference methods for valuing environmental amenities[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,1994,26(3):271-292.
[5]李艳军,李崇光,杨光圣.基于农户角度的商品种子价值要素效用评价———以油菜种子为例[J].中国农村经济,2009(1):58-69.(Li Y J,Li C G,Yang G S. Evaluation of utilityvalue of commodity seed based on peasant households:Takingrapeseed seeds as an example[J]. Chinese Rural Economy,2009(1):58-69.)
[6] Rambonilaza M,Dachary-Bernard J. Land-use planning and pub-lic preferences:What can we learn from choice experiment method[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2007,83(4):318-326.
[7] Andreopoulos D,Damigos D,Comiti F,et al. Estimating the non-market benefits of climate change adaptation of river ecosystemservices:A choice experiment application in the Aoosbasin,Greece[J]. Environmental Science&Policy,2015,45:92-103.
[8]常向阳,赵璐瑶.江苏省小麦种植农户化肥与农药选择行为分析———基于选择实验法的实证[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(11):551-555.(Chang X Y,Zhao L Y. Analysis on fertilizerand pesticide selection behavior of wheat farmers in Jiangsu prov-ince based on selective experiment method[J]. Jiangsu Agricultur-al Sciences,2015,43(11):551-555.)
[9]马爱慧,张安录.选择实验法视角的耕地生态补偿意愿实证研究———基于湖北武汉市问卷调查[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):2061-2066.(Ma A H,Zhang A L. Cultivated land ecolog-ical compensation willingness based on choice experiments[J].Resources Science,2013,35(10):2061-2066.)
[10]陈琦,都基隆,韩立民,等.消费者对水产品质量安全属性的偏好研究———基于选择实验法的分析[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(9):1040-1044.(Chen Q,Du J L,Han L M,et al.Study on consumers'preference for the quality and safety attributesof aquatic product———Based on analysis of choice experiment[J].Resource Development&Market,2015,31(9):1040-1044.)
[11]蓝菁,夏伟峰,刘立,等.基于选择实验法的生物资源公众保护偏好研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(3):577-584.(Lan J,Xia W F,Liu L,et al. Public preferences for biological resourceconservation based on choice experiment methods[J]. ResourcesScience,2017,39(3):577-584.)
[12]尹世久,徐迎军,陈雨生.食品质量信息标签如何影响消费者偏好———基于山东省843个样本的选择实验[J].中国农村观察,2015(1):39-49.(Yin S J,Xu Y J,Chen Y S. How dofood quality information label affect consumers preferences:Basedon the choice experiment of 843 samples in Shandong province[J]. China Rural Survey,2015(1):39-49.)
[13]杨树果,何秀荣.中国大豆产业状况和观点思考[J].中国农村经济,2014(4):32-41.(Yang S G,He X R. Soybean indus-try status and viewpoints in China[J]. Chinese Rural Economy,2014(4):32-41.)
[14]潘文华,许世卫.黑龙江省大豆产业困境与差异化发展战略[J].农业经济问题,2014,35(2):26-33.(Pan W H,Xu SW. The dilemma and different development strategy of soybean in-dustry in Heilongjiang province[J]. Issues in Agricultural Econo-my,2014,35(2):26-33.)
[15]陆光米,朱再清.我国棉花与玉米、大豆生产效益的比较分析[J].湖南农业科学,2017(9):115-120.(Lu G M,Zhu Z Q.Comparative analysis of cotton,corn and soybean production effi-ciency in China[J]. Hunan Agricultural Sciences,2017(9):115-120.)
[16]刘爱民,于格,于萧萌.大豆主产区主要竞争农作物生产成本与收益分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2005,26(2):35-39.(Liu A M,Yu G,Yu X M. Analysis of production cost andgain of major competing crops at main soybean production regions[J]. Chinese Journal of China Agricultural Resources and Region-al Planning,2005,26(2):35-39.)
[17]杨胜先,牛远,李梦,等.栽培大豆农艺性状的关联分析及优异等位变异挖掘[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(20):3941-3952.(Yang S X,Niu Y,Li M,et al. Association mapping ofagronomic traits in soybean(Glycine max L. Merr.)and mining ofnovel alleles[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2014,47(20):3941-3952.)
[18]梁慧珍,余永亮,杨红旗,等.大豆产量及主要农艺性状QTL的上位性互作和环境互作分析[J].作物学报,2014,40(1):37-44.(Liang H Z,Yu Y L,Yang H Q,et al. Epistatic effectsand QTL×environment interaction effects of QTLs for yield andagronomic traits in soybean[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica,2014,40(1):37-44.)
[19]慈敦伟,张礼凤,汪宝卿,等.大豆种质资源农艺性状和产量的年份间差异及其关系[J].植物遗传资源学报,2011,12(6):872-880.(Ci D W,Zhang L F,Wang B Q,et al. Variationof agronomic traits and production of germplasm resources of soy-bean in different years and the relationship between them[J].Journal of Plant Genetic Resources,2011,12(6):872-880.)
[20]张淑荣,李广,刘稳.我国大豆产业的国际竞争力实证研究与影响因素分析[J].国际贸易问题,2007,293(5):10-15.(Zhang S R,Li G,Liu W. Experimental study and factors analy-sis on the international competition power of Chinese soybean in-dustry[J]. Journal of International Trade,2007,293(5):10-15.)
[21]石春娜,姚顺波,陈晓楠,等.基于选择实验法的城市生态系统服务价值评估———以四川温江为例[J].自然资源学报,2016(5):767-778.(Shi C N,Yao S B,Chen X N,et al. Eco-nomic valuation of ecosystem services based on choice experi-ments:A case study of Wenjiang in Sichuan province[J]. JournalNatural Resources,2016(5):767-778.)