“一带一路”倡议背景下的中德产业合作——以山东省为分析重点（英文）
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摘要
"德国技术"与"中国制造"强强联合,共同打造全球"智造"新高地是当前经济发展决策者和理论工作者的共同期盼,但其实现路径正在探索中。山东省是我国经济发展的一个缩影,也是我国对德产业合作的典型样本。以山东为例,剖析对德合作的产业选择及其实现策略具有代表性。在实践中,对德产业合作应当在充分考虑德国优势产业、我国及山东产业发展重点和未来增长潜力的基础上,着力提升利用德国投资的质量,高度重视德国投资"溢出效应"。通过对山东产业梯度系数、产业关联系数的计量分析,发现未来山东与德国产业对接应坚持"突出重点、蓄势未来"的原则,既要强化山东对德产业对接的重点合作领域,又要积极培育潜力领域。从德国投资中国的规律看,德国企业进行投资区位选择具有一定的特殊性,在东道国的先行德资企业的集聚程度、营商环境的塑造、人力资本发展程度和区域科技水平对吸引新的德国企业投资进入具有非常重要的作用。为此,在"一带一路"背景下山东与德国产业对接应当重视产业链的构建、投资平台的建设和外部环境的塑造。
At present, economic decision-makers and theorists predict that the robust alliance of "German technology" and "made in China" will reach new global heights through the development of intelligent manufacturing. However, the path to the realization of this prediction is still being explored. Shandong is a microcosm of China's economic development and China-Germany cooperation, so the province can be analyzed as a representative example of the industrial choices and implementation strategies of this cooperation. In practice, China-Germany industrial cooperation should take into account industries where Germany has an advantage and the industrial development priorities and future growth potential of China and Shandong. We should thus focus on raising the quality of German investment and attending to its spill-over effects. The findings of a quantitativeanalysis of Shandong's industrial gradient coefficient and industrial correlation show that the future alignment of German and Shandong industry should adhere to the principle of "emphasizing key points and storing up resources for the future." For this reason, we should not only strengthen the key fields of Shandong's industrial alignment with Germany, but also actively cultivate areas with potential. Research on the pattern of German investment in China indicates that German companies' choice of investment location has certain distinctive features. The factors that matter most in attracting German investment are the concentration of German first-comer enterprises in the host country, the shape of the business environment and the level of human capital and regional science and technology. For this reason, against the background of the Belt and Road Initiative, Shandong's alignment with German industry should focus on building industry chains, constructing investment platforms and shaping the external environment.
At present, economic decision-makers and theorists predict that the robust alliance of "German technology" and "made in China" will reach new global heights through the development of intelligent manufacturing. However, the path to the realization of this prediction is still being explored. Shandong is a microcosm of China's economic development and China-Germany cooperation, so the province can be analyzed as a representative example of the industrial choices and implementation strategies of this cooperation. In practice, China-Germany industrial cooperation should take into account industries where Germany has an advantage and the industrial development priorities and future growth potential of China and Shandong. We should thus focus on raising the quality of German investment and attending to its spill-over effects. The findings of a quantitativeanalysis of Shandong's industrial gradient coefficient and industrial correlation show that the future alignment of German and Shandong industry should adhere to the principle of "emphasizing key points and storing up resources for the future." For this reason, we should not only strengthen the key fields of Shandong's industrial alignment with Germany, but also actively cultivate areas with potential. Research on the pattern of German investment in China indicates that German companies' choice of investment location has certain distinctive features. The factors that matter most in attracting German investment are the concentration of German first-comer enterprises in the host country, the shape of the business environment and the level of human capital and regional science and technology. For this reason, against the background of the Belt and Road Initiative, Shandong's alignment with German industry should focus on building industry chains, constructing investment platforms and shaping the external environment.
引文
Chen,Zhiwen.“German Leaders from a Number of Areas Discuss Industry 4.0”(德国各界领袖谈“工业4.0”).World Science(世界科学),2014,no.5.
Dai,Hongwei.International Industrial Transfer and the Development of China’s Manufacturing(国际产业转移与中国制造业发展).Beijing:People’s Publishing House,2006.
Ding,Chun and Li Junyang.“Germany’s Industry 4.0:Contents,Motivation,Prospects and Implications”(Das Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0 von Deutschland:Inhalt,Motivationen,Perspektive und Seine Anregungen).Deutschland Studien,2014,no.4.
German Association of the Automotive Industry.“Automotive Industry and Markets”(Special column).https://www.vda.de/en/topics/automotive-industry-and-markets.html.
Leontief,Wassily Wassilyevich.The Structure of American Economy,1919-1939:An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis.Trans.Wang Yanyang et al.Beijing:The Commercial Press,1993.
Liu,Jianli.“Industry 4.0 and the Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Automotive Industry”(工业4.0与中国汽车产业转型升级).Reform of Economic System(经济体制改革),2015,no.6.
Liu,Yonghuan.“Experience from the Industrial Restructuring of Developed Countries-A Case Study of the US and Germany”(发达国家产业结构调整的经验借鉴--以美国和德国为例).Economic Forum(经济论坛),2017,no.5.
National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook(中国统计年鉴).Beijing:China Statistics Press,2000-2017.
Notice of the State Council on Printing the Plan of“Made in China 2025.”May 19,2015.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-05/19content_9784.html.
Rostow,W.W.“Leading Sectors and the Take-off.”In The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth.Trans.He Liping et al.Chengdu:Sichuan People’s Publishing House,1988.
Shandong Bureau of Statistics.Shandong Statistical Yearbook 2017(山东统计年鉴2017).Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.
“The 11th CPC Shandong Provincial Congress Concludes”(中国共产党山东省第十一次代表大会闭幕).Dazhong Daily(大众日报),June 18,2017,front page.
Xi,Jinping.“Development Is the Top Priority,Talent Is the Primary Source,and Innovation Is the First Driving Force”(发展是第一要务,人才是第一资源,创新是第一动力).http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-03/07 c_1122503159.html.
--.Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era:Report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利--在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告)(October 18,2017).Beijing:People’s Publishing House,2017.
Xiong,Bilin,Chen Rui,and Yang Shanlin.“Analysis of the Features of Regional Industrial Transfer Based on Improvement of the Gradient Coefficient”(基于改进梯度系数的区域产业转移特征分析).Economic Theory and Business Management(经济理论与经济管理),2007,no.7.
ZVEI.“German Electrical&Electronic Industry-Facts&Figures.”November,2017.https://www.zvei.Org/fileadmin/user_upload/Presse_und_Medien/Publikationen2017/November/Die_deutsche_Elektroindustrie_Daten_Zahlen_Fakten_November_2017/Fact-Sheet-November-2017.Pdf.
1 See“The 11th Shandong CPC Provincial Congress Concludes,”Dazhong Daily,June 18,2017,front page.
2 The“Four New”are new technologies,new industries,new types of operation and new models,and the“Four Transformations”are the development of intelligent industry,industrialization of intelligence,cross-sector mergers and premium brands.
3 See Shandong Bureau of Statistics,Shandong Statistical Yearbook 2017.Unless otherwise stated,the statistics in this paper are from the annual China Statistical Yearbook(National Bureau of Statistics)and the Shandong Statistical Yearbook.
4 See Ding Chun and Li Junyang,“Germany’s Industry 4.0:Contents,Motivation,Prospects and Implications”(Das Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0 von Deutschland:Inhalt,Motivationen,Perspektive und Seine Anregungen).
5 Chen Zhiwen,“German Leaders from a Number of Areas Discuss Industry 4.0.”
6 State Council Notice on the Publication of“Made in China 2025,”May 19,2015.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-05/19content_9784.html.
7 Cf.Liu Yonghuan,“Experience from the Industrial Restructuring of Developed Countries-A Case Study of the US and Germany.”
8 Cf.German Association of the Automotive Industry,“Automotive Industry and Markets”(special column),https://www.vda.de/en/topics/automotive-industry-and-markets,html.
9 See Liu Jianli,“Industry 4.0 and the Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Automotive Industry.”
10 ZVEI,“German Electrical&Electronic Industry-Facts&Figures,”November 2017,https://www.zvei.Org/fileadmin/user_upload/Presse_und_Medien/Publikationen2017/November/Die_deutsche_Elektroindustrie_Daten_Zahlen_Fakten_November_2017/Fact-Sheet-November-2017.Pdf.
11 Xi Jinping,Secure A Decisive Victory in Building A Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for A New Era:Report to the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China,p.30.
12 Dai Hongwei,International Industrial Transfer and the Development of China’s Manufacturing,pp.14-16.
13 Xiong Bilin,Chen Rui,and Yang Shanlin,“Analysis of the Features of Regional Industrial Transfer Based on Improvement of the Gradient Coefficient.”
14 Wassily W.Leontief,The Structure of the American Economy,1919-1929:An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis.
15 W.W.Rostow,“Leading Sectors and the Take-off,”in The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth.
16 In economics,complete consumption coefficient refers to the input of goods from other sectors needed by a particular industrial sector to produce a unit of product,which equals the sum of direct and indirect consumption in the region.Suppose there are n industrial sectors in a region and sector j needs goods or services from sector i.Set X_j as the total input of Sector j,X_(ij) is the quantity of goods or services of Sector i directly consumed by Sector j in its production and operation.In fact,the production of Sector j may also consume the goods or services of its own or other sectors through some intermediate links.Suppose there are k intermediate links and the direct consumption coefficient can be calculated by the formula a_(ij)=x_(ij)/x_j,the indirect consumption coefficient can be calculated by the formula b_(ij)=∑bik×a_(kj) and the complete consumption coefficient can be calculated by G_(ij)=a_(ij)+b_(ij).
17 Tianjin is an important area in the aggregation of German investment in China.Its use of German capital for development ranks at the forefront of the country as a whole.Between 2007 and 2016,actual German investment in Tianjin amounted to US$4.813 billion,which was 1.05 times of that of Beijing,3.2 times that of Guangdong,1.27 times that of Jiangsu,50.45 times that of Fujian and 2.38 times that of Liaoning.Anhui is an advanced region in terms of non-coastal regions’utilization of German capital.For the same years,actual German investment in Anhui amounted to US$2.424 billion-lower than Tianjin,Beijing,Jiangsu,and Shanghai,but higher than most inland provinces such as Henan,Jiangxi,etc.,and higher than those provinces that are big users of foreign capital,such as Liaoning,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Fujian,etc.
18 The correlation coefficient is-0.1676.
19 The relevant data are based on the following website:http://www.cadz.org.cn.
20 Xi Jinping,“Development Is the Top Priority,Talent Is the Primary Source,and Innovation Is the First Driving Force,”http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-03/07 c_1122503159.html.
Dai,Hongwei.International Industrial Transfer and the Development of China’s Manufacturing(国际产业转移与中国制造业发展).Beijing:People’s Publishing House,2006.
Ding,Chun and Li Junyang.“Germany’s Industry 4.0:Contents,Motivation,Prospects and Implications”(Das Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0 von Deutschland:Inhalt,Motivationen,Perspektive und Seine Anregungen).Deutschland Studien,2014,no.4.
German Association of the Automotive Industry.“Automotive Industry and Markets”(Special column).https://www.vda.de/en/topics/automotive-industry-and-markets.html.
Leontief,Wassily Wassilyevich.The Structure of American Economy,1919-1939:An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis.Trans.Wang Yanyang et al.Beijing:The Commercial Press,1993.
Liu,Jianli.“Industry 4.0 and the Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Automotive Industry”(工业4.0与中国汽车产业转型升级).Reform of Economic System(经济体制改革),2015,no.6.
Liu,Yonghuan.“Experience from the Industrial Restructuring of Developed Countries-A Case Study of the US and Germany”(发达国家产业结构调整的经验借鉴--以美国和德国为例).Economic Forum(经济论坛),2017,no.5.
National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook(中国统计年鉴).Beijing:China Statistics Press,2000-2017.
Notice of the State Council on Printing the Plan of“Made in China 2025.”May 19,2015.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-05/19content_9784.html.
Rostow,W.W.“Leading Sectors and the Take-off.”In The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth.Trans.He Liping et al.Chengdu:Sichuan People’s Publishing House,1988.
Shandong Bureau of Statistics.Shandong Statistical Yearbook 2017(山东统计年鉴2017).Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.
“The 11th CPC Shandong Provincial Congress Concludes”(中国共产党山东省第十一次代表大会闭幕).Dazhong Daily(大众日报),June 18,2017,front page.
Xi,Jinping.“Development Is the Top Priority,Talent Is the Primary Source,and Innovation Is the First Driving Force”(发展是第一要务,人才是第一资源,创新是第一动力).http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-03/07 c_1122503159.html.
--.Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era:Report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利--在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告)(October 18,2017).Beijing:People’s Publishing House,2017.
Xiong,Bilin,Chen Rui,and Yang Shanlin.“Analysis of the Features of Regional Industrial Transfer Based on Improvement of the Gradient Coefficient”(基于改进梯度系数的区域产业转移特征分析).Economic Theory and Business Management(经济理论与经济管理),2007,no.7.
ZVEI.“German Electrical&Electronic Industry-Facts&Figures.”November,2017.https://www.zvei.Org/fileadmin/user_upload/Presse_und_Medien/Publikationen2017/November/Die_deutsche_Elektroindustrie_Daten_Zahlen_Fakten_November_2017/Fact-Sheet-November-2017.Pdf.
1 See“The 11th Shandong CPC Provincial Congress Concludes,”Dazhong Daily,June 18,2017,front page.
2 The“Four New”are new technologies,new industries,new types of operation and new models,and the“Four Transformations”are the development of intelligent industry,industrialization of intelligence,cross-sector mergers and premium brands.
3 See Shandong Bureau of Statistics,Shandong Statistical Yearbook 2017.Unless otherwise stated,the statistics in this paper are from the annual China Statistical Yearbook(National Bureau of Statistics)and the Shandong Statistical Yearbook.
4 See Ding Chun and Li Junyang,“Germany’s Industry 4.0:Contents,Motivation,Prospects and Implications”(Das Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0 von Deutschland:Inhalt,Motivationen,Perspektive und Seine Anregungen).
5 Chen Zhiwen,“German Leaders from a Number of Areas Discuss Industry 4.0.”
6 State Council Notice on the Publication of“Made in China 2025,”May 19,2015.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-05/19content_9784.html.
7 Cf.Liu Yonghuan,“Experience from the Industrial Restructuring of Developed Countries-A Case Study of the US and Germany.”
8 Cf.German Association of the Automotive Industry,“Automotive Industry and Markets”(special column),https://www.vda.de/en/topics/automotive-industry-and-markets,html.
9 See Liu Jianli,“Industry 4.0 and the Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Automotive Industry.”
10 ZVEI,“German Electrical&Electronic Industry-Facts&Figures,”November 2017,https://www.zvei.Org/fileadmin/user_upload/Presse_und_Medien/Publikationen2017/November/Die_deutsche_Elektroindustrie_Daten_Zahlen_Fakten_November_2017/Fact-Sheet-November-2017.Pdf.
11 Xi Jinping,Secure A Decisive Victory in Building A Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for A New Era:Report to the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China,p.30.
12 Dai Hongwei,International Industrial Transfer and the Development of China’s Manufacturing,pp.14-16.
13 Xiong Bilin,Chen Rui,and Yang Shanlin,“Analysis of the Features of Regional Industrial Transfer Based on Improvement of the Gradient Coefficient.”
14 Wassily W.Leontief,The Structure of the American Economy,1919-1929:An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis.
15 W.W.Rostow,“Leading Sectors and the Take-off,”in The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth.
16 In economics,complete consumption coefficient refers to the input of goods from other sectors needed by a particular industrial sector to produce a unit of product,which equals the sum of direct and indirect consumption in the region.Suppose there are n industrial sectors in a region and sector j needs goods or services from sector i.Set X_j as the total input of Sector j,X_(ij) is the quantity of goods or services of Sector i directly consumed by Sector j in its production and operation.In fact,the production of Sector j may also consume the goods or services of its own or other sectors through some intermediate links.Suppose there are k intermediate links and the direct consumption coefficient can be calculated by the formula a_(ij)=x_(ij)/x_j,the indirect consumption coefficient can be calculated by the formula b_(ij)=∑bik×a_(kj) and the complete consumption coefficient can be calculated by G_(ij)=a_(ij)+b_(ij).
17 Tianjin is an important area in the aggregation of German investment in China.Its use of German capital for development ranks at the forefront of the country as a whole.Between 2007 and 2016,actual German investment in Tianjin amounted to US$4.813 billion,which was 1.05 times of that of Beijing,3.2 times that of Guangdong,1.27 times that of Jiangsu,50.45 times that of Fujian and 2.38 times that of Liaoning.Anhui is an advanced region in terms of non-coastal regions’utilization of German capital.For the same years,actual German investment in Anhui amounted to US$2.424 billion-lower than Tianjin,Beijing,Jiangsu,and Shanghai,but higher than most inland provinces such as Henan,Jiangxi,etc.,and higher than those provinces that are big users of foreign capital,such as Liaoning,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Fujian,etc.
18 The correlation coefficient is-0.1676.
19 The relevant data are based on the following website:http://www.cadz.org.cn.
20 Xi Jinping,“Development Is the Top Priority,Talent Is the Primary Source,and Innovation Is the First Driving Force,”http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-03/07 c_1122503159.html.