税收规避、盈余持续性与市场异象
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摘要
本文以2007—2016年中国A股上市公司为样本,从避税行为的经济后果视角探究税收规避对公司盈余持续性的影响,并利用Mishkin模型考察资本市场能否有效反映这一影响。研究发现:避税行为可以显著提高公司盈余持续性。通过对盈余成分的细分,发现避税行为对正常应计利润持续性的提高显著高于可操纵应计利润;同时,避税行为对公司特质盈余持续性的提高显著高于行业层面盈余,市场倾向于高估避税行为对公司特质盈余持续性的影响。
Based on all A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016, this paper directly explores the impact of corporate tax avoidance on earnings persistence, and uses the Mishkin model to explore whether Chinese capital market can effectively reflect this effect. This paper finds that tax avoidance can significantly enhance the earnings persistence of a company. Through the breakdown of the earnings components, this paper finds that the increase consequence of tax avoidance on normal accruals is significantly higher than that on abnormal accruals, that is, the improvement of corporate earnings persistence is mainly achieved by tax avoidance guiding enterprises to limit their daily business activities to a fixed model. At the same time, tax avoidance behaviors also could enhance the persistence of both the industry-level earnings and firm-specific earnings of a company, but the latter is more obvious. However, the market tends to overestimate the effect of tax avoidance on the persistence of the firm-specific earnings.
Based on all A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016, this paper directly explores the impact of corporate tax avoidance on earnings persistence, and uses the Mishkin model to explore whether Chinese capital market can effectively reflect this effect. This paper finds that tax avoidance can significantly enhance the earnings persistence of a company. Through the breakdown of the earnings components, this paper finds that the increase consequence of tax avoidance on normal accruals is significantly higher than that on abnormal accruals, that is, the improvement of corporate earnings persistence is mainly achieved by tax avoidance guiding enterprises to limit their daily business activities to a fixed model. At the same time, tax avoidance behaviors also could enhance the persistence of both the industry-level earnings and firm-specific earnings of a company, but the latter is more obvious. However, the market tends to overestimate the effect of tax avoidance on the persistence of the firm-specific earnings.
引文
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[14] 程小可,李浩举,郑立东.税收规避能够提升企业价值吗?——基于货币政策视角的研究 [J].审计与经济研究,2016(3):63-72.
[15] KIM J B,LI Y H,ZHANG L D.Corporate Tax Avoidance and Stock Price Crash Risk:Firm-Level Analysis [J].Journal of Financial Economics,2011,100(3):639-662.
[16] HOPE O K,MA M S,THOMAS W B.Tax Avoidance and Geographic Earnings Disclosure [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2013,56(2):170-189.
[17] 谭青,鲍树琛.会计税收差异能够影响审计收费吗?——基于盈余管理与税收规避的视角 [J].审计研究,2015(2):81-88.
[18] BADERTSCHER B A,PHILLIPS J D,PINCUS M,et al.EARN Management Strategies and the Trade-off between Tax Benefits and Detection Risk:To Conform or not to Conform?[J].The Accounting Review,2009,84(1):63-97.
[19] 吴联生.国有股权,税收优惠与公司税负 [J].经济研究,2009(10):109-120.
[20] 胥朝阳,刘睿智.提高会计信息可比性能抑制盈余管理吗?[J].会计研究,2014(7):50-57.
[2] BLAYLOCK B,SHEVLIN T,WILSON R J.Tax Avoidance,Large Positive Temporary Book-Tax Differences,and Earnings Persistence [J].The Accounting Review,2011,87(1):91-120.
[3] 陈武朝.经济周期,行业周期性与盈余管理程度——来自中国上市公司的经验证据 [J].南开管理评论,2013(3):26-35.
[4] FRANKEL R,LITOV L.Earnings Persistence [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2009,47(1):182-190.
[5] SLOAN R.Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings?[J].The Accounting Review,1996,71(3):289-315.
[6] XIE H.The Mispricing of Abnormal Accruals [J].The Accounting Review,2001,76(3):357-373.
[7] DECHOW P M,RICHARDERSON S A,SLOAN R G.The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings [J].Journal of Accounting Research,2008,46(3):537-566.
[8] HUI K W,NELSON K K,YEUNG P E.On the Persistence and Pricing of Industry-Wide and Firm-Specific Earnings,Cash Flows and Accruals [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2016,61(1):185-202.
[9] 李远鹏,牛建军.退市监管与应计异象 [J].管理世界,2007(5):125-132.
[10] 宋云玲,李志文.A股公司的应计异象 [J].管理世界,2009(8):17-24.
[11] HANLON M.The Persistence and Pricing of Earnings,Accruals,and Cash Flows when Firms Have Large Book-Tax Differences [J].The Accounting Review,2005,80(1):13-166.
[12] 伍利娜,李蕙伶.投资者理解公司会计利润和应税利润的差异信息吗?[J].管理世界,2007(10):114-121.
[13] 张兆国,郑宝红,李明.公司治理,税收规避和现金持有价值——来自我国上市公司的经验证据 [J].南开管理评论,2015(1):15-24.
[14] 程小可,李浩举,郑立东.税收规避能够提升企业价值吗?——基于货币政策视角的研究 [J].审计与经济研究,2016(3):63-72.
[15] KIM J B,LI Y H,ZHANG L D.Corporate Tax Avoidance and Stock Price Crash Risk:Firm-Level Analysis [J].Journal of Financial Economics,2011,100(3):639-662.
[16] HOPE O K,MA M S,THOMAS W B.Tax Avoidance and Geographic Earnings Disclosure [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2013,56(2):170-189.
[17] 谭青,鲍树琛.会计税收差异能够影响审计收费吗?——基于盈余管理与税收规避的视角 [J].审计研究,2015(2):81-88.
[18] BADERTSCHER B A,PHILLIPS J D,PINCUS M,et al.EARN Management Strategies and the Trade-off between Tax Benefits and Detection Risk:To Conform or not to Conform?[J].The Accounting Review,2009,84(1):63-97.
[19] 吴联生.国有股权,税收优惠与公司税负 [J].经济研究,2009(10):109-120.
[20] 胥朝阳,刘睿智.提高会计信息可比性能抑制盈余管理吗?[J].会计研究,2014(7):50-57.