中国高耗能行业碳排放脱钩关系及影响因素研究
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摘要
利用Tapio脱钩模型对高耗能行业2000—2015年的产业增加值与碳排放的脱钩关系进行了研究,然后利用LMDI分解模型分析了高耗能行业的碳排放的影响因素。研究结果显示:中国高耗能行业的脱钩状况大体上呈现出从扩张性负脱钩不断向弱脱钩发展的良好态势;能源强度影响因子和产业活动影响因子分别对抑制和促进高耗能行业碳排放发挥关键作用,产业规模影响因子对碳排放的促进作用仅次于产业活动影响因子,能源结构影响因子和产业结构影响因子对高耗能行业碳排放的促进作用较弱。基于以上研究结果,提出了相应的政策建议。
Tapio decoupling model is utilized to research the decoupling relationship between industrial added value and carbon emission in energy-intensive industries in 2000--2015,then the LMDI decomposition model is utilized to analyze the influence factor of carbon emission in energy-intensive industries.Research results have indicated that:the decoupling condition in China's energy-intensive industries constantly develops to the weak decoupling development from the expansionary negative decoupling.Energy intensity impact factor and industrial activity impact factor play a key role in the suppression and promotion of carbon emission in energy-intensive industries,the promotion role of the industrial scale's impact factor on carbon emission ranks only second to that of the industrial activity's impact factor,and the impact factors of energy structure and industrial structure have weaker promotion role on the carbon emission of energy-intensive industries.The corresponding policy suggestion is proposed on the basis of the above research results.
Tapio decoupling model is utilized to research the decoupling relationship between industrial added value and carbon emission in energy-intensive industries in 2000--2015,then the LMDI decomposition model is utilized to analyze the influence factor of carbon emission in energy-intensive industries.Research results have indicated that:the decoupling condition in China's energy-intensive industries constantly develops to the weak decoupling development from the expansionary negative decoupling.Energy intensity impact factor and industrial activity impact factor play a key role in the suppression and promotion of carbon emission in energy-intensive industries,the promotion role of the industrial scale's impact factor on carbon emission ranks only second to that of the industrial activity's impact factor,and the impact factors of energy structure and industrial structure have weaker promotion role on the carbon emission of energy-intensive industries.The corresponding policy suggestion is proposed on the basis of the above research results.
引文
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[19]国家统计局.2001-2015年中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[2]IPCC.Mitigation of Climate Change(2014)Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCCFifth Assessment Report[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[3]国家统计局.2001-2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[4]Ang B W.Decomposition Analysis for Policy Making in Energy:Which is the Preferred Method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(2):1131-1139.
[5]Tapio P.Towards a Theory of Decoupling:Degrees of Decoupling in the EU and the Case of Road Traffic in Finland between 1970and 2001[J].Transport Policy,2005,12(6):137-151.
[6]Rocío Roman-Collado,Camilo Botia.How far is Colombia from Decoupling?Two-level Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption Changes[J].Energy,2018,148(3):687-700.
[7]Zhang M,Wang W W.Decouple Indicators on the CO2Emission-economic Growth Linkage:The Jiangsu Province Case[J].Ecological Indicators,2013,32(2):239-244.
[8]David Gray,Jillian Leigh Anable.Decoupling the Link between Economic Growth,Transport Growth and Carbon Emissions in Scotland[J].The Centre for Transport Policy,2006,24(7):336-343.
[9]Ren S G,Hu Z.Effects of Decoupling of Carbon Dioxide Emission by Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry[J].Energy Policy,2012,43(4):404-414.
[10]Ang B W,Zhang F,Choi K.Factorizing Changes in Energy and Environmental Indicators Through Decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[11]Paul S,Bhattacharya R N.CO2Emission from Energy Use in India:A Decomposition Analysis[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(3):585-593.
[12]O’Mahony T,Zhou P,Sweeney J.The Driving Forces of Change in Energy-related CO2 Emissions in Ireland:AMulti-sectoral Decomposition from 1990to 2007[J].Energy Policy,2012,44(7):256-267.
[13]Bhattacharyya S C,Ussanarassamee A.Decomposition of Energy and GHG Intensities of Thai Industry Between 1981and2000[J].Energy Economics,2004,26(3):765-781.
[14]Xu J H,Fleiter T,Eichhammer W.Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in China's Cement Industry:A Perspective from LMDI Decomposition Analysis[J].Energy Policy,2012,50(8):821-832.
[15]IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[16]Xu X S,Zhao T.Changes of Energy-related GHG Emissions in China:An Empirical Analysis from Sectoral Perspective[J].Applied Energy,2014,132(3):298-307.
[17]国家统计局.2001-2015年中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[18]国家统计局.2001-2015年中国工业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[19]国家统计局.2001-2015年中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.