基于灰色系统西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度预测模型的构建
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摘要
阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)是西南大西洋鱿钓渔业的主要作业鱼种,对资源丰度进行准确的预测可指导企业合理安排渔业生产。因此,本研究根据2000-2016年我国西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的生产数据,以单位捕捞努力量的渔获量(Catch per unit effort, CPUE)为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的指标,利用灰色绝对关联分析和灰色预测建模的方法(GM(0,N)),计算2001-2015年CPUE的时间序列值与产卵期(6-8月)产卵场海表面温度(Sea surface temperature, SST)时间序列值的灰色绝对关联度,选取产卵场海域中灰色绝对关联度大于0.90的海区SST建立资源丰度预测模型,并用2016年实际CPUE进行验证。灰色绝对关联分析表明,6-8月,30°～40°S,45°～60°W海域内存在若干海区的SST与次年对数CPUE时间序列呈现较强的关联度,可作为预报因子。GM(0,N)模型结果表明,以6-8月产卵场SST作为环境因子建立的模型4能较好地拟合出阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度变动趋势,与2016年真实值相比,相对误差为7%,该模型可较好地作为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的预测模型。相反,包含6月和7月SST的模型1效果优于不包含6月SST的模型2或不包含7月SST的模型3,拟合得到的2016年的数据与真实值相比,相对误差分别为128%和289%,这说明6月和7月是西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的主要产卵月份。
Illex argentinus is the main fishing target in the southwest Atlantic. The accurate prediction of resource abundance can guide enterprises to arrange fishery production rationally. In this study, based on the fishing data of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic from 2001-2016, we computed the grey absolute correlation degree between the logarithmic CPUE sequence in the following year and SST sequence in the spawning ground from June to August. And we selected the points which the grey absolute correlation index was greater than 0.90 as the forecasting factors, and then a CPUE forecast of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic was established, and used the actual CPUE in 2016 to verify the model. The grey correlation analysis shows that there are a large number of points have strong grey correlation index between SST and CPUE sequence from June to August in the region 30°～40°S,45°～60°W. Results suggest that GM(0, 4) model, which includes average SST from June to August, has the best model effect. The relative error is 7%,which can be used in the prediction of resources abundance of Illex argentinus in the southwest Atlantic. In contrast, the GM(0, 3) does not include the spawning area's mean SST in June and in July, which relative errors are 128% and 289% respectively. This suggests June and July are the main spawning months for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean.
Illex argentinus is the main fishing target in the southwest Atlantic. The accurate prediction of resource abundance can guide enterprises to arrange fishery production rationally. In this study, based on the fishing data of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic from 2001-2016, we computed the grey absolute correlation degree between the logarithmic CPUE sequence in the following year and SST sequence in the spawning ground from June to August. And we selected the points which the grey absolute correlation index was greater than 0.90 as the forecasting factors, and then a CPUE forecast of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic was established, and used the actual CPUE in 2016 to verify the model. The grey correlation analysis shows that there are a large number of points have strong grey correlation index between SST and CPUE sequence from June to August in the region 30°～40°S,45°～60°W. Results suggest that GM(0, 4) model, which includes average SST from June to August, has the best model effect. The relative error is 7%,which can be used in the prediction of resources abundance of Illex argentinus in the southwest Atlantic. In contrast, the GM(0, 3) does not include the spawning area's mean SST in June and in July, which relative errors are 128% and 289% respectively. This suggests June and July are the main spawning months for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean.
引文
[1] 唐议. 西南大西洋鱿钓作业渔获物——阿根廷滑柔鱼生物学分析[J]. 海洋渔业, 2002, 24(1): 14-19. Tang Yi. Analysis on biological characteristics of the catch of squid jigging in the Southwest Atlantic[J]. Marine Fisheries, 2002, 24(1): 14-19.
[2] Chen Xinjun, Liu Bilin, Chen Yong. A review of the development of Chinese distant-water squid jigging fisheries[J]. Fisheries Research, 2008, 89(3): 211-221.
[3] Waluda C, Rodhouse P, Podestá G, et al. Surface oceanography of the inferred hatching grounds of Illex argentinus (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) and influences on recruitment variability[J]. Marine Biology, 2001, 139(4): 671-679.
[4] 陆化杰, 陈新军, 方舟. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场时空变化及其与表温的关系[J]. 海洋渔业, 2013, 35(4): 382-388. Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun, Fang Zhou. The spatial and temporal changes of fishing grounds of Illex argentinus and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southwest Atlantic[J]. Marine Fisheries, 2013, 35(4): 382-388.
[5] 伍玉梅, 郑丽丽, 崔雪森, 等. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的资源丰度及其与主要生态因子的关系[J]. 生态学杂志, 2011, 30(6): 1137-1141. Wu Yumei, Zheng Lili, Cui Xuesen, et al. Illex argentinus resource abundance and its relations to the main ecological factors in Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2011, 30(6): 1137-1141.
[6] 张炜, 张健. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场与主要海洋环境因子关系探讨[J]. 上海水产大学学报, 2008, 17(4): 471-475. Zhang Wei, Zhang Jian. A discussion about relationship between the distribution of production of Illex argentinus and marine environmental factors in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of Shanghai Fisheries University, 2008, 17(4): 471-475.
[7] 刘必林, 陈新军. 2001年西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼产量分布与表温关系的初步研究[J]. 海洋渔业, 2004, 26(4): 326-330. Liu Bilin, Chen Xinjun. Preliminary study on the relationship between the distribution of production of Illex argentinus and SST in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean in 2001[J]. Marine Fisheries, 2004, 26(4): 326-330.
[8] 高峰, 陈新军, 范江涛, 等. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场预报的实现及验证[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2011, 20(5): 754-758. Gao Feng, Chen Xinjun, Fan Jiangtao, et al. Implementation and verification of intelligent fishing ground forecasting of Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2011, 20(5): 754-758.
[9] 张洪亮, 徐汉祥, 朱文斌, 等. 西南大西洋公海阿根廷滑柔鱼产量时空分布的初步研究[J]. 浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版), 2008, 27(4): 390-394. Zhang Hongliang, Xu Hanxiang, Zhu Wenbin, et al. Preliminary study on the spatio-temporal distribution of the Illex argentinus’ yield in the high sea of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University (Natural Science), 2008, 27(4): 390-394.
[10] 李娜, 陆化杰, 陈新军. 基于不同BP神经网络的西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场预报模型比较[J]. 广东海洋大学学报, 2017, 37(1): 65-71. Li Na, Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun. Comparison of different forecasting model for fishing ground of Illex argentinus based on artificial neural networks in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of Guangdong Ocean University, 2017, 37(1): 65-71.
[11] 刘思峰, 杨英杰, 吴利峰, 等. 灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 7版. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014: 198-205. Liu Sifeng, Yang Yingjie, Wu Lifeng, et al. Grey System Theory and Its Application[M]. 7th ed. Beijing: Science Press, 2014: 198-205.
[12] 陈新军. 灰色系统理论在渔业科学中的应用[M]. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2003: 1-32. Chen Xinjun. Grey System Theory in Fisheries Science[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2003: 1-32.
[13] 高雪, 陈新军, 余为. 基于灰色系统的西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度预测模型[J]. 海洋学报, 2017, 39(6): 55-61. Gao Xue, Chen Xinjun, Yu Wei. Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(6): 55-61.
[14] 潘澎. 灰色预测模型在山东渔业产量预测中的应用研究[J]. 齐鲁渔业, 1997, 14(3): 35-37. Pan Peng. Studies on application of the grey prediction model to fishery output in Shandong[J]. Shandong Fisheries, 1997, 14(3): 35-37.
[15] 丁娟, 汪易易. 基于灰色系统模型的山东省渔业产量增长预测分析[J]. 中国渔业经济, 2010, 28(6): 92-98. Ding Juan, Wang Yiyi. Prediction analysis of fishery yield in Shandong based on grey system model[J]. Chinese Fisheries Economics, 2010, 28(6): 92-98.
[16] 陈新军, 许柳雄, 田思泉. 北太平洋柔鱼资源与渔场的时空分析[J]. 水产学报, 2003, 27(4): 334-342. Chen Xinjun, Xu Liuxiong, Tian Siquan. Spatial and temporal analysis of Ommastrephe bartrami resources and its fishing ground in North Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2003, 27(4): 334-342.
[17] 李娜, 陈新军, 王冉. 基于空间自相关的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE标准化研究[J]. 海洋学报, 2018, 40(2): 61-68. Li Na, Chen Xinjun, Wang Ran. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into CPUE standardization with an application to the Illex argentinus[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2018, 40(2): 61-68.
[18] 汤银才. R语言与统计分析[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2008: 260-264. Tang Yincai. Statistics Analysis with R[M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2008: 260-264.
[19] 陈芃, 陈新军, 雷林, 等. 东南太平洋秘鲁鳀资源量预报模型的构建[J]. 海洋学报, 2018, 40(1): 77-86. Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun, Leilin, et al. Forecasting model to the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) biomass in the southeastern Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2018, 40(1): 77-86.
[20] 陈新军, 陆化杰, 方舟, 等. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔业生物学[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014: 25-42. Chen Xinjun, Lu Huajie, Fang Zhou, et al. Fishery Biological Properties of Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2014: 25-42.
[21] 汪金涛, 高峰, 雷林, 等. 基于产卵场环境因子的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源补充量预报模型研究[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(12): 119-124. Wang Jintao, Gao Feng, Lei Lin, et al. Study on forecasting model of recruitment for Illex argentinus by using the environmental factors in the spawning ground[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(12): 119-124.
[22] 陈芃, 陈新军. 基于最大熵模型分析西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地分布[J]. 水产学报, 2016, 40(6): 893-902. Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun. Analysis of habitat distribution of Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean using maximum entropy model[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2016, 40(6): 893-902.
[23] 王尧耕, 陈新军. 世界大洋性经济柔鱼类资源及其渔业[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 2005: 190-194. Wang Yaogeng, Chen Xinjun. Commercial Oceanic Ommastrephid Squid of the World and Its Fishery[M]. Beijing: Ocean Press, 2005: 190-194.
[24] 陆化杰, 陈新军. 利用耳石微结构研究西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的日龄、生长与种群结构[J]. 水产学报, 2012, 36(7): 1049-1056. Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun. Age, growth and population structure of Illex argentinus based on statolith microstructure in Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2012, 36(7): 1049-1056.
[25] 陆化杰, 陈新军, 曹杰, 等. 中国大陆阿根廷滑柔鱼鱿钓渔业CPUE标准化[J]. 水产学报, 2013, 37(6): 951-960. Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun, Cao Jie, et al. CPUE standardization of Illex argentinus for Chinese Mainland squid-jigging fishery in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2013, 37(6): 951-960.
[26] 李德伟, 张龙, 王洋, 等. 基于GAM的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE与环境因子关系分析[J]. 渔业现代化, 2015, 42(4): 56-61. Li Dewei, Zhang Long, Wang Yang, et al. Study on the relationship between Illex argentinus CPUE and environmental factors based on GAM[J]. Fishery Modernization, 2015, 42(4): 56-61.
[2] Chen Xinjun, Liu Bilin, Chen Yong. A review of the development of Chinese distant-water squid jigging fisheries[J]. Fisheries Research, 2008, 89(3): 211-221.
[3] Waluda C, Rodhouse P, Podestá G, et al. Surface oceanography of the inferred hatching grounds of Illex argentinus (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) and influences on recruitment variability[J]. Marine Biology, 2001, 139(4): 671-679.
[4] 陆化杰, 陈新军, 方舟. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场时空变化及其与表温的关系[J]. 海洋渔业, 2013, 35(4): 382-388. Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun, Fang Zhou. The spatial and temporal changes of fishing grounds of Illex argentinus and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southwest Atlantic[J]. Marine Fisheries, 2013, 35(4): 382-388.
[5] 伍玉梅, 郑丽丽, 崔雪森, 等. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的资源丰度及其与主要生态因子的关系[J]. 生态学杂志, 2011, 30(6): 1137-1141. Wu Yumei, Zheng Lili, Cui Xuesen, et al. Illex argentinus resource abundance and its relations to the main ecological factors in Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2011, 30(6): 1137-1141.
[6] 张炜, 张健. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场与主要海洋环境因子关系探讨[J]. 上海水产大学学报, 2008, 17(4): 471-475. Zhang Wei, Zhang Jian. A discussion about relationship between the distribution of production of Illex argentinus and marine environmental factors in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of Shanghai Fisheries University, 2008, 17(4): 471-475.
[7] 刘必林, 陈新军. 2001年西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼产量分布与表温关系的初步研究[J]. 海洋渔业, 2004, 26(4): 326-330. Liu Bilin, Chen Xinjun. Preliminary study on the relationship between the distribution of production of Illex argentinus and SST in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean in 2001[J]. Marine Fisheries, 2004, 26(4): 326-330.
[8] 高峰, 陈新军, 范江涛, 等. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场预报的实现及验证[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2011, 20(5): 754-758. Gao Feng, Chen Xinjun, Fan Jiangtao, et al. Implementation and verification of intelligent fishing ground forecasting of Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2011, 20(5): 754-758.
[9] 张洪亮, 徐汉祥, 朱文斌, 等. 西南大西洋公海阿根廷滑柔鱼产量时空分布的初步研究[J]. 浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版), 2008, 27(4): 390-394. Zhang Hongliang, Xu Hanxiang, Zhu Wenbin, et al. Preliminary study on the spatio-temporal distribution of the Illex argentinus’ yield in the high sea of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University (Natural Science), 2008, 27(4): 390-394.
[10] 李娜, 陆化杰, 陈新军. 基于不同BP神经网络的西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场预报模型比较[J]. 广东海洋大学学报, 2017, 37(1): 65-71. Li Na, Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun. Comparison of different forecasting model for fishing ground of Illex argentinus based on artificial neural networks in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of Guangdong Ocean University, 2017, 37(1): 65-71.
[11] 刘思峰, 杨英杰, 吴利峰, 等. 灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 7版. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014: 198-205. Liu Sifeng, Yang Yingjie, Wu Lifeng, et al. Grey System Theory and Its Application[M]. 7th ed. Beijing: Science Press, 2014: 198-205.
[12] 陈新军. 灰色系统理论在渔业科学中的应用[M]. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2003: 1-32. Chen Xinjun. Grey System Theory in Fisheries Science[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2003: 1-32.
[13] 高雪, 陈新军, 余为. 基于灰色系统的西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度预测模型[J]. 海洋学报, 2017, 39(6): 55-61. Gao Xue, Chen Xinjun, Yu Wei. Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(6): 55-61.
[14] 潘澎. 灰色预测模型在山东渔业产量预测中的应用研究[J]. 齐鲁渔业, 1997, 14(3): 35-37. Pan Peng. Studies on application of the grey prediction model to fishery output in Shandong[J]. Shandong Fisheries, 1997, 14(3): 35-37.
[15] 丁娟, 汪易易. 基于灰色系统模型的山东省渔业产量增长预测分析[J]. 中国渔业经济, 2010, 28(6): 92-98. Ding Juan, Wang Yiyi. Prediction analysis of fishery yield in Shandong based on grey system model[J]. Chinese Fisheries Economics, 2010, 28(6): 92-98.
[16] 陈新军, 许柳雄, 田思泉. 北太平洋柔鱼资源与渔场的时空分析[J]. 水产学报, 2003, 27(4): 334-342. Chen Xinjun, Xu Liuxiong, Tian Siquan. Spatial and temporal analysis of Ommastrephe bartrami resources and its fishing ground in North Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2003, 27(4): 334-342.
[17] 李娜, 陈新军, 王冉. 基于空间自相关的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE标准化研究[J]. 海洋学报, 2018, 40(2): 61-68. Li Na, Chen Xinjun, Wang Ran. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into CPUE standardization with an application to the Illex argentinus[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2018, 40(2): 61-68.
[18] 汤银才. R语言与统计分析[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2008: 260-264. Tang Yincai. Statistics Analysis with R[M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2008: 260-264.
[19] 陈芃, 陈新军, 雷林, 等. 东南太平洋秘鲁鳀资源量预报模型的构建[J]. 海洋学报, 2018, 40(1): 77-86. Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun, Leilin, et al. Forecasting model to the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) biomass in the southeastern Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2018, 40(1): 77-86.
[20] 陈新军, 陆化杰, 方舟, 等. 西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼渔业生物学[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014: 25-42. Chen Xinjun, Lu Huajie, Fang Zhou, et al. Fishery Biological Properties of Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2014: 25-42.
[21] 汪金涛, 高峰, 雷林, 等. 基于产卵场环境因子的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源补充量预报模型研究[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(12): 119-124. Wang Jintao, Gao Feng, Lei Lin, et al. Study on forecasting model of recruitment for Illex argentinus by using the environmental factors in the spawning ground[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(12): 119-124.
[22] 陈芃, 陈新军. 基于最大熵模型分析西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地分布[J]. 水产学报, 2016, 40(6): 893-902. Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun. Analysis of habitat distribution of Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean using maximum entropy model[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2016, 40(6): 893-902.
[23] 王尧耕, 陈新军. 世界大洋性经济柔鱼类资源及其渔业[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 2005: 190-194. Wang Yaogeng, Chen Xinjun. Commercial Oceanic Ommastrephid Squid of the World and Its Fishery[M]. Beijing: Ocean Press, 2005: 190-194.
[24] 陆化杰, 陈新军. 利用耳石微结构研究西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的日龄、生长与种群结构[J]. 水产学报, 2012, 36(7): 1049-1056. Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun. Age, growth and population structure of Illex argentinus based on statolith microstructure in Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2012, 36(7): 1049-1056.
[25] 陆化杰, 陈新军, 曹杰, 等. 中国大陆阿根廷滑柔鱼鱿钓渔业CPUE标准化[J]. 水产学报, 2013, 37(6): 951-960. Lu Huajie, Chen Xinjun, Cao Jie, et al. CPUE standardization of Illex argentinus for Chinese Mainland squid-jigging fishery in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean[J]. Journal of fisheries of China, 2013, 37(6): 951-960.
[26] 李德伟, 张龙, 王洋, 等. 基于GAM的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE与环境因子关系分析[J]. 渔业现代化, 2015, 42(4): 56-61. Li Dewei, Zhang Long, Wang Yang, et al. Study on the relationship between Illex argentinus CPUE and environmental factors based on GAM[J]. Fishery Modernization, 2015, 42(4): 56-61.