生命价值、职业伤害成本低估与安全事故
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摘要
本文立足于生命价值理论,结合享乐主义工资模型,采用中国家庭动态追踪调查(2010)与《安全生产统计年鉴(2009年)》的匹配数据,测算了2010年中国劳动者统计学生命价值(VSL)区间,并与近年我国企业实际负担的职业伤害成本进行比较。研究发现:我国劳动者的统计学生命价值与计量模型选取、变量内生性控制以及劳动者个体收入特征等有关;无论采用参数方法(线性或非线性)、半参数方法或者非参边界分析方法,均表明我国劳动者的统计学生命价值要远远高于因工死亡的实际补偿。职业伤害成本的低估引发了现阶段的不可承受之重,"外在于全社会共同承担"的职业伤害成本要远高于企业承担的实际成本。据此,本文建议:动态调整我国劳动者因工死亡的补偿标准,将现有"维持劳动者及其家属的一定生活水平"的补偿目标转化为"补偿性提升劳动者及其家属的生活水平",通过提升劳动者因工死亡的标准倒逼我国当前的安全生产改革。
Worker safety and occupational injuries are critical issues in government regulation policies in China. If China's workplace safety policy is to be clear and precise,evaluating and measuring the cost of occupational injuries,that is,assigning the value of occupational injuries,are key to workplace safety policy design in China.Based on comparing several methods of calculating the cost of occupational injury—life value theory,the compensation practice of Chinese laborers' occupational injuries,and the mainstream approach to measuring value of statistical life(VSL)in current research—this paper chooses a hedonic model to evaluate the cost of Chinese laborers' occupational injuries. Using data from China Family Panel Studies( CFPS)(2010) and The Safe Production Statistics Yearbook(2009),this paper proposes a VSL regression model and obtains the VSL of Chinese laborers in 2010. If the relation between lethal risk and wage is a quadratic curve,the estimate result shows the laborers' VSL is RMB51,298,200. If the relation between lethal risk and wage is a linear curve,the estimate result shows the laborers' VSL is RMB3,573,500. Furthermore,we propose a quantile regression to simultaneously explore the result of VSL,and find that the VSL of laborers in the 50% quantile is RMB51,323.To eliminate heterogeneity and endogeneity issues,we introduce the non-parametric boundary analysis method and apply the MTR-MTS joint hypothesis,and find the workers' VSL to be between RMB12,750 and RMB41,731.No matter which measurement method is used,the value of statistical life is much higher than the current compensation standards in China. This discrepancy has two serious consequences. One is that the cost of occupational injuries is transferred from enterprises to laborers in China. Therefore,production accidents occur frequently because there is no significant impact on enterprises. The other consequence is that the laborer's value of statistical life is far higher than the cost that an enterprise can afford in China. Thus,this paper suggests that compensation standards for workers' death or injuries should be adjusted over time. In particular,the compensation standards should be transformed from maintaining the living standards of workers and their relatives into promoting their living standards. Doing so will give high priority to safer production and push the government to develop safer production standards in China.This paper suggests the following marginal improvements. First,it attempts to combine risk theory of production and life value theory with Chinese practice. Based on theory of the value of statistical life,this paper measures the social cost and affordable capability of Chinese enterprises. It enriches the research related to social ethics,corporate ethics,and social welfare distribution. Second, this paper further considers endogeneity problems under limited information on occupational injury data. Through discussing two types of individual ability( cognitive and non-cognitive capabilities),the measurement of occupational socioeconomic status, and the degree of occupational risk, this paper considers the endogeneity problems that arise from ignorance of laborers' abilities and the heterogeneity of risk preferences and production conditions( Hwang et al.,1992). In addition,this paper uses the control function method proposed by Wooldridge(2009) to examine the value of statistical life under different conditions of income level distribution,which effectively controls endogeneity problems and expands on the work of Qin et al.(2010) and Qian(2011). Third,using the nonparametric boundary analysis method proposed by Manski(1990,1997,2000),this paper measures the range of the value of statistical life. It reduces the bias caused by the lack of instrumental variables and also narrows the differences in the estimated value of statistical life obtained by various methods.
Worker safety and occupational injuries are critical issues in government regulation policies in China. If China's workplace safety policy is to be clear and precise,evaluating and measuring the cost of occupational injuries,that is,assigning the value of occupational injuries,are key to workplace safety policy design in China.Based on comparing several methods of calculating the cost of occupational injury—life value theory,the compensation practice of Chinese laborers' occupational injuries,and the mainstream approach to measuring value of statistical life(VSL)in current research—this paper chooses a hedonic model to evaluate the cost of Chinese laborers' occupational injuries. Using data from China Family Panel Studies( CFPS)(2010) and The Safe Production Statistics Yearbook(2009),this paper proposes a VSL regression model and obtains the VSL of Chinese laborers in 2010. If the relation between lethal risk and wage is a quadratic curve,the estimate result shows the laborers' VSL is RMB51,298,200. If the relation between lethal risk and wage is a linear curve,the estimate result shows the laborers' VSL is RMB3,573,500. Furthermore,we propose a quantile regression to simultaneously explore the result of VSL,and find that the VSL of laborers in the 50% quantile is RMB51,323.To eliminate heterogeneity and endogeneity issues,we introduce the non-parametric boundary analysis method and apply the MTR-MTS joint hypothesis,and find the workers' VSL to be between RMB12,750 and RMB41,731.No matter which measurement method is used,the value of statistical life is much higher than the current compensation standards in China. This discrepancy has two serious consequences. One is that the cost of occupational injuries is transferred from enterprises to laborers in China. Therefore,production accidents occur frequently because there is no significant impact on enterprises. The other consequence is that the laborer's value of statistical life is far higher than the cost that an enterprise can afford in China. Thus,this paper suggests that compensation standards for workers' death or injuries should be adjusted over time. In particular,the compensation standards should be transformed from maintaining the living standards of workers and their relatives into promoting their living standards. Doing so will give high priority to safer production and push the government to develop safer production standards in China.This paper suggests the following marginal improvements. First,it attempts to combine risk theory of production and life value theory with Chinese practice. Based on theory of the value of statistical life,this paper measures the social cost and affordable capability of Chinese enterprises. It enriches the research related to social ethics,corporate ethics,and social welfare distribution. Second, this paper further considers endogeneity problems under limited information on occupational injury data. Through discussing two types of individual ability( cognitive and non-cognitive capabilities),the measurement of occupational socioeconomic status, and the degree of occupational risk, this paper considers the endogeneity problems that arise from ignorance of laborers' abilities and the heterogeneity of risk preferences and production conditions( Hwang et al.,1992). In addition,this paper uses the control function method proposed by Wooldridge(2009) to examine the value of statistical life under different conditions of income level distribution,which effectively controls endogeneity problems and expands on the work of Qin et al.(2010) and Qian(2011). Third,using the nonparametric boundary analysis method proposed by Manski(1990,1997,2000),this paper measures the range of the value of statistical life. It reduces the bias caused by the lack of instrumental variables and also narrows the differences in the estimated value of statistical life obtained by various methods.
引文
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邓曲恒、王亚柯,2013:《农民工的工作条件与工资收入:以补偿性工资差异为视角》,《南开经济研究》第6期。
郑风田、崔海兴,2011:《安全监管的经济学分析》,华中科技大学出版社。
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黄群慧、郭朝先、刘湘丽,2009:《中国工业化进程与安全生产》,中国财政经济出版社。
黄小武、蔡夏林、刘凌燕,2000:《我国职业伤害经济损失研究》,《中国安全科学学报》第1期。
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李文才,2011:《产品责任归责原则的有效性分析---最优激励的分析视角》,载于郑风田、崔海兴编《安全监管的经济学分析》,华中科技大学出版社,第119-126页。
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理查德·A.波斯纳,1997:《法律的经济分析》,中国大百科全书出版社。
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钱永坤,2011:《煤炭工人“统计”的生命价值研究》,《统计研究》第4期。
乔治·J.鲍哈斯,2010:《劳动经济学》,中国人民大学出版社。
秦雪征、刘阳阳、李历行,2010:《生命的价值及其地区差异:基于全国人口抽样调查的估计》,《中国工业经济》第10期。
石磊,2004:《人命几何:政策分析中如何确定生命的市场价值》,《青年研究》第4期。
王亮,2004a:《生命价值的实证研究》,《中国安全科学学报》第4期。
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(1)天津瑞海事故发生于2015年8月12日。截至2015年8月31日,该事故共死亡145人,28人失联。中国共产党中央政治局常委于2015年8月27日召开会议,专门讨论天津瑞海事故。这是中国共产党自建制以来,首次就安全生产事故召开中央政治局常委会议。
(2)根据《中国劳动统计年鉴》的数据计算所得,该数据自2006年起才开始统计全国因工死亡的人数。
(1)当致命性风险为100%,除非风险承担者是高度的利他主义者,否则没有一个有限的金钱数额可以补偿风险承担者(波斯纳,1997;Sojourner,2010)。
(2)过失责任的“汉德公式”认为:如果损失的概率为P、金额为L、预防成本为B,只有在PL>B时相关的行为主体才存在过失。如果预防成本无限,企业将无法供给相应的安全生产设施(波斯纳,1997)。
(1)CFPS数据已进行了多轮追踪调查,未采用2010年之后的数据合成面板数据进行分析的主要原因在于《安全生产统计年鉴》自2010年之后未公布分行业的生产事故发生率与伤亡人数。
(2)“大五”包括严谨性、外向性、顺同性、开放性、神经质或情绪稳定性等五类人格特征。
(3)由于本文关注主题为风险的补偿性工资水平,通常工资方程中如年龄、性别及婚姻状况等个人特征变量的影响不是本文分析的重点,故在解释估计结果时忽略这部分的分析。
(1)Viscusi(2003)总结了1974-2000年美国劳动者的生命价值估计,采用2000年的价格进行平抑之后,美国生命价值处于120万-1200万美元之间,大多数实证研究落在380-900万美元的范围内。
(1)通过计量方法也可获得统计学生命价值的取值范围,Viscusi(2010)曾采用这种方法,但由于中国这方面的研究文献较少,目前难以通过这种方法来寻找生命价值的取值范围。
(2)本文未进一步处理Manski(2000)提出的单调工具变量假设,一是未能找到适宜的可分类的工具变量;二是根据Manski的研究,如果施加更多可靠的相对弱的假设条件,最后可以得一个无偏的点估计结果。本文采用非参边界分析旨在获得平均处理效应的范围,MIV的结果最终是落在MTR-MTS的区间范围。
(3)补贴是一种约定俗成的“中国式称呼”,本质上是享乐主义工资理论中针对职业风险的补偿。
(1)2014年,中国城镇居民的人均可支配收入约为4696美元,美国人均可支配收入为39096美元,前者为后者的12%。数据来源:http://www.askci.com/news/2015/03/25/9252mo80.shtml。
(1)2010年中国城镇居民人均可支配收入为19109元,按照“最高不超过人均可支配收入的20倍”为依据,工伤死亡的最高补偿标准为38.22万元/人。
程启智,2005:《人的生命价值理论比较研究》,《中南财经政法大学学报》第6期。
邓曲恒、王亚柯,2013:《农民工的工作条件与工资收入:以补偿性工资差异为视角》,《南开经济研究》第6期。
郑风田、崔海兴,2011:《安全监管的经济学分析》,华中科技大学出版社。
冯伟、郑风田,2011:《生命价值估算:方法、结果与应用》,转引自郑风田、崔海兴,2011:《安全监管的经济学分析》,华中科技大学出版社。
胡伟强,2015:《理性分析“同命不同价”》,《中国社会科学报》8月5日。
黄群慧、郭朝先、刘湘丽,2009:《中国工业化进程与安全生产》,中国财政经济出版社。
黄小武、蔡夏林、刘凌燕,2000:《我国职业伤害经济损失研究》,《中国安全科学学报》第1期。
经济合作与发展组织,1996:《交通社会成本的内部化》,中国环境科学出版社。
李本森,2001:《生命价值的法律与经济分析:中国生命赔偿法律的改革路径》,《中国社会科学》第6期。
李文才,2011:《产品责任归责原则的有效性分析---最优激励的分析视角》,载于郑风田、崔海兴编《安全监管的经济学分析》,华中科技大学出版社,第119-126页。
李文鸿、党建、林娟,2012:《人的生命价值评估的数学模式研究》,《江汉大学学报》第12期。
理查德·A.波斯纳,1997:《法律的经济分析》,中国大百科全书出版社。
梅强、刘素霞,2011:《中小企业安全生产规制研究---基于生命价值理论视角》,科学出版社。
钱永坤,2011:《煤炭工人“统计”的生命价值研究》,《统计研究》第4期。
乔治·J.鲍哈斯,2010:《劳动经济学》,中国人民大学出版社。
秦雪征、刘阳阳、李历行,2010:《生命的价值及其地区差异:基于全国人口抽样调查的估计》,《中国工业经济》第10期。
石磊,2004:《人命几何:政策分析中如何确定生命的市场价值》,《青年研究》第4期。
王亮,2004a:《生命价值的实证研究》,《中国安全科学学报》第4期。
王亮,2004b:《生命价值的实证研究》,《中国安全科学学报》第7期。
薛立敏、王素弯,1987:《台湾地区就业“生命价值”之评估:工资-风险贴水法之理》,中华经济研究院。
谢地、何琴,2008:《职业安全规制问题研究》,《经济学家》第2期。
亚当·斯密,2003:《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》,商务印书馆。
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(1)天津瑞海事故发生于2015年8月12日。截至2015年8月31日,该事故共死亡145人,28人失联。中国共产党中央政治局常委于2015年8月27日召开会议,专门讨论天津瑞海事故。这是中国共产党自建制以来,首次就安全生产事故召开中央政治局常委会议。
(2)根据《中国劳动统计年鉴》的数据计算所得,该数据自2006年起才开始统计全国因工死亡的人数。
(1)当致命性风险为100%,除非风险承担者是高度的利他主义者,否则没有一个有限的金钱数额可以补偿风险承担者(波斯纳,1997;Sojourner,2010)。
(2)过失责任的“汉德公式”认为:如果损失的概率为P、金额为L、预防成本为B,只有在PL>B时相关的行为主体才存在过失。如果预防成本无限,企业将无法供给相应的安全生产设施(波斯纳,1997)。
(1)CFPS数据已进行了多轮追踪调查,未采用2010年之后的数据合成面板数据进行分析的主要原因在于《安全生产统计年鉴》自2010年之后未公布分行业的生产事故发生率与伤亡人数。
(2)“大五”包括严谨性、外向性、顺同性、开放性、神经质或情绪稳定性等五类人格特征。
(3)由于本文关注主题为风险的补偿性工资水平,通常工资方程中如年龄、性别及婚姻状况等个人特征变量的影响不是本文分析的重点,故在解释估计结果时忽略这部分的分析。
(1)Viscusi(2003)总结了1974-2000年美国劳动者的生命价值估计,采用2000年的价格进行平抑之后,美国生命价值处于120万-1200万美元之间,大多数实证研究落在380-900万美元的范围内。
(1)通过计量方法也可获得统计学生命价值的取值范围,Viscusi(2010)曾采用这种方法,但由于中国这方面的研究文献较少,目前难以通过这种方法来寻找生命价值的取值范围。
(2)本文未进一步处理Manski(2000)提出的单调工具变量假设,一是未能找到适宜的可分类的工具变量;二是根据Manski的研究,如果施加更多可靠的相对弱的假设条件,最后可以得一个无偏的点估计结果。本文采用非参边界分析旨在获得平均处理效应的范围,MIV的结果最终是落在MTR-MTS的区间范围。
(3)补贴是一种约定俗成的“中国式称呼”,本质上是享乐主义工资理论中针对职业风险的补偿。
(1)2014年,中国城镇居民的人均可支配收入约为4696美元,美国人均可支配收入为39096美元,前者为后者的12%。数据来源:http://www.askci.com/news/2015/03/25/9252mo80.shtml。
(1)2010年中国城镇居民人均可支配收入为19109元,按照“最高不超过人均可支配收入的20倍”为依据,工伤死亡的最高补偿标准为38.22万元/人。