旅游消费、产业结构调整与区域均衡发展
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摘要
基于内生增长理论框架,分析了旅游消费对区域均衡发展的影响机制与效应,进而构建面板中介效应模型,结合中国2003-2015年省级面板数据,实证检验了旅游消费对区域均衡发展的影响及中介效应。研究表明:旅游消费对区域均衡发展具有显著的正向效应,并且存在产业结构中介效应,稳健性检验也支持了该结论;无论是国内旅游消费还是入境旅游消费,都对区域均衡发展具有推动作用,且国内旅游消费的作用更大;分地区来看,旅游消费对区域均衡发展的影响效果存在显著的地域差异,东部、中部和西部地区旅游消费虽均能促进区域均衡发展,但东部地区旅游消费对区域均衡发展的贡献度要高于中西部地区。
Based on the framework of endogenous growth theory, this paper analyzes the influencing mechanism and effects of tourism consumption on regional balanced development. Then, there is an empirical research using panel mediating effect model and provincial-level panel data of China from 2003 to 2015. The research shows that, tourism consumption has a significant positive effect on regional balanced development, and there is a mediating effect of industrial structure, which is supported by the robustness test. Both domestic tourism consumption and inbound tourism consumption have a positive affect on balanced development of regions, but domestic tourism consumption plays a greater role. From the regional perspective, there are significant regional differences in the impact of tourism consumption on regional balanced development. Although tourism consumption in eastern, middle and western regions can promote regional balanced development, the contribution of tourism consumption in eastern regions to regional balanced development is higher than that in middle and western regions.
Based on the framework of endogenous growth theory, this paper analyzes the influencing mechanism and effects of tourism consumption on regional balanced development. Then, there is an empirical research using panel mediating effect model and provincial-level panel data of China from 2003 to 2015. The research shows that, tourism consumption has a significant positive effect on regional balanced development, and there is a mediating effect of industrial structure, which is supported by the robustness test. Both domestic tourism consumption and inbound tourism consumption have a positive affect on balanced development of regions, but domestic tourism consumption plays a greater role. From the regional perspective, there are significant regional differences in the impact of tourism consumption on regional balanced development. Although tourism consumption in eastern, middle and western regions can promote regional balanced development, the contribution of tourism consumption in eastern regions to regional balanced development is higher than that in middle and western regions.
引文
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[16]Tsui,K.W.H.Does A Low-cost Carrier Lead the Domestic Tourism Demand and Growth of New Zealand?[J].Tourism Management,2017,60:390-403.
[17]Bilen,M.,Yilanci,V.,and Eryüzlü,H.Tourism Development and Economic Growth:A Panel Granger Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain[J].Current Issue in Tourism,2017,20(1):27-32.
[18]Tang,C.F.,and Abosedra,S.Tourism and Growth in Lebanon:New Evidence from Bootstrap Simulation and Rolling Causality Approaches[J].Empirical Economics,2016,50(2):679-696.
[19]Sokhanvar,A.,覶ift觭iog姚lu,S.,and Javid,E.Another Look at Tourism-Economic Development Nexus[J].Tourism Management Perspectives,2018,26:97-106.
[20]余洁.山东省旅游产业与区域经济协调度评价与优化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,(4):163-168.
[21]刘军胜,马耀峰,吴冰.入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调度时空差异动态分析:基于全国31个省区1993-2011年面板数据[J].经济管理,2015,(3):33-43.
[22]高楠,马耀峰,张春晖.中国丝绸之路经济带旅游产业与区域经济的时空耦合分异:基于九省区市1993-2012年面板数据[J].经济管理,2015,(9):111-120.
[23]曹翔,郭立萍.中国旅游业发展导致了资源诅咒效应吗[J].旅游学刊,2017,(5):14-25.
[24]温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰,刘红云.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004,(5):614-620.
[2]潘文卿.中国区域经济发展:基于空间溢出效应的分析[J].世界经济,2015,(7):120-142.
[3]洪银兴.新时代的现代化和现代化经济体系[J].南京社会科学,2018,(2):1-6.
[4]张攀,杨进,周星.中国旅游业发展与区域经济增长:254个地级市的面板数据[J].经济管理,2014,(6):116-126.
[5]Li,H.Y.,Chen,J.L.,Li,G.,and Goh,C.Tourism and Regional Income Inequality:Evidence from China[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2016,58(5):81-99.
[6]周文丽.旅游对我国区域经济增长及其敛散性的影响:基于1997年~2010年省际面板数据的实证分析[J].旅游科学,2012,(5):54-64.
[7]Proenca,S.,and Soukiazis,E.Tourism As An Economic Growth Factor:A Case Study for Southern European Countries[J].Tourism Economics,2008,14(4):791-806.
[8]Tang,C.F.,and Tan,E.C.Does Tourism Effectively Stimulate Malaysia’s Economic Growth?[J].Tourism Management,2015,46:158-163.
[9]Yang,Y.,and Fik,T.Spatial Effects in Regional Tourism Growth[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2014,46:144-162.
[10]汪彬,陈耀.国内旅游业发展与区域经济增长:基于中国285个地级市的实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2017,(12):62-72.
[11]杨懿,杨先明.旅游地“荷兰病”效应:旅游负面经济影响研究新视角[J].财经理论与实践,2015,(5):133-137.
[12]Narayan,P.K.Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji’s Economy:Empirical Evidence from the Computable General Equilibrium Model[J].Tourism Economics,2014,10(4):419-433.
[13]刘春济,冯学钢.入境旅游发展与我国经济增长的关系[J].经济管理,2014,(2):125-135.
[14]雷平,施祖麟.我国出境旅游发展水平的国际比较研究[J].旅游科学,2008,(2):33-37.
[15]罗文斌,徐飞雄,贺小荣.旅游发展与经济增长、第三产业增长动态关系:基于中国1978~2008数据的实证检验[J].旅游学刊,2012,(10):20-26.
[16]Tsui,K.W.H.Does A Low-cost Carrier Lead the Domestic Tourism Demand and Growth of New Zealand?[J].Tourism Management,2017,60:390-403.
[17]Bilen,M.,Yilanci,V.,and Eryüzlü,H.Tourism Development and Economic Growth:A Panel Granger Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain[J].Current Issue in Tourism,2017,20(1):27-32.
[18]Tang,C.F.,and Abosedra,S.Tourism and Growth in Lebanon:New Evidence from Bootstrap Simulation and Rolling Causality Approaches[J].Empirical Economics,2016,50(2):679-696.
[19]Sokhanvar,A.,覶ift觭iog姚lu,S.,and Javid,E.Another Look at Tourism-Economic Development Nexus[J].Tourism Management Perspectives,2018,26:97-106.
[20]余洁.山东省旅游产业与区域经济协调度评价与优化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,(4):163-168.
[21]刘军胜,马耀峰,吴冰.入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调度时空差异动态分析:基于全国31个省区1993-2011年面板数据[J].经济管理,2015,(3):33-43.
[22]高楠,马耀峰,张春晖.中国丝绸之路经济带旅游产业与区域经济的时空耦合分异:基于九省区市1993-2012年面板数据[J].经济管理,2015,(9):111-120.
[23]曹翔,郭立萍.中国旅游业发展导致了资源诅咒效应吗[J].旅游学刊,2017,(5):14-25.
[24]温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰,刘红云.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004,(5):614-620.