西安市PM_(2.5)健康损害价值评估
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摘要
选取2014、2015、2016年冬季PM_(2.5)(24 h)浓度平均值,采用泊松回归模型评价全市居民连续3 a冬季PM_(2.5)暴露的急性健康损害效应,修正的人力资本法评估过早死亡经济损失,疾病成本法评估住院、患病与门诊经济损失.结果表明,研究时段内(2014、2015、2016年冬季)由PM_(2.5)造成的经济损失约为335.23亿元(95%CI:249.61~369.75)、211.05亿元(95%CI:135.60~268.80)、371.32亿元(95%CI:272.46~411.64),分别约占当年GDP的6.10%(4.54%~6.73%)、3.64%(2.34%~4.63%)、5.91%(4.34%~6.55%);健康经济损失与当年冬季PM_(2.5)浓度均值呈正相关关系;PM_(2.5)污染物对西安市常住人口健康影响显著,影响的病例(2014、2015、2016年)分别约为1 071 338例(95%CI:646 432~1 385 847)、438 273例(95%CI:246 842~599 989)、1 019 503例(95%CI:611 407~1 324 547);对哮喘儿童患者的影响比成人显著,而慢性支气管炎的影响成人比儿童显著.该研究可为西安市实施PM_(2.5)空气质量标准的成本效益分析提供科学的依据,为环境质量的管理提供参考.
The study evaluated the acute health damage effect of PM_(2.5) exposure in winter in Xi'an City,using the average concentration of PM_(2.5)( 24 h) and the Average Poisson Regression Model for three consecutive years,from 2014 to 2016. The Corrected Human Capital Method was used to evaluate the economic loss from premature death. The cost of illness was used to assess the economic loss of hospitalization,illness and clinic. The results show that the economic loss in the study period( 2014,2015,2016) caused by PM_(2.5) was about 33. 523 billion yuan( 95% CI: 24. 961-36. 975),21. 105 billion yuan( 95% CI: 13. 560-26. 880),and 37. 132 billion yuan( 95% CI: 27. 246-41. 164). The proportions of GDP were as follows: 6. 10%( 4. 54%-6. 73%),3. 64%( 2. 34%-4. 63%),and 5. 91%( 4. 34%-6. 55%) for each of the three years. The health economic loss was positively correlated with the average PM_(2.5) concentration in winter. PM_(2.5) pollutants have a significant impact on the health of residents in Xi'an. The number of reported cases was about 1 071 338( 95% CI: 646 432-1 385 847),438 273( 95% CI: 246 842-599 989),and 1 019 503( 95% CI: 611 407-1 324 547) for each of the three years. The effects on children with asthma were significantly higher than that on adults,while adults with chronic bronchitis were affected more significantly than children. This study can provide a scientific basis for cost-benefit analysis of the PM_(2.5) air quality standard in Xi'an,and provide a reference for the management of environment quality.
The study evaluated the acute health damage effect of PM_(2.5) exposure in winter in Xi'an City,using the average concentration of PM_(2.5)( 24 h) and the Average Poisson Regression Model for three consecutive years,from 2014 to 2016. The Corrected Human Capital Method was used to evaluate the economic loss from premature death. The cost of illness was used to assess the economic loss of hospitalization,illness and clinic. The results show that the economic loss in the study period( 2014,2015,2016) caused by PM_(2.5) was about 33. 523 billion yuan( 95% CI: 24. 961-36. 975),21. 105 billion yuan( 95% CI: 13. 560-26. 880),and 37. 132 billion yuan( 95% CI: 27. 246-41. 164). The proportions of GDP were as follows: 6. 10%( 4. 54%-6. 73%),3. 64%( 2. 34%-4. 63%),and 5. 91%( 4. 34%-6. 55%) for each of the three years. The health economic loss was positively correlated with the average PM_(2.5) concentration in winter. PM_(2.5) pollutants have a significant impact on the health of residents in Xi'an. The number of reported cases was about 1 071 338( 95% CI: 646 432-1 385 847),438 273( 95% CI: 246 842-599 989),and 1 019 503( 95% CI: 611 407-1 324 547) for each of the three years. The effects on children with asthma were significantly higher than that on adults,while adults with chronic bronchitis were affected more significantly than children. This study can provide a scientific basis for cost-benefit analysis of the PM_(2.5) air quality standard in Xi'an,and provide a reference for the management of environment quality.
引文
[1]陈仁杰,陈秉衡,阚海东.我国113个城市大气颗粒物污染的健康经济学评价[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(3):410-415.Chen R J,Chen B H,Kan H D.A health-based economic assessment of particulate air pollution in 113 Chinese cities[J].China Environmental Science,2010,30(3):410-415.
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[14]韩明霞,过孝民,张衍燊.城市大气污染的人力资本损失研究[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(4):509-512.Han M X,Guo X M,Zhang Y S.The human capital loss of air pollution in cities,China[J].China Environmental Science,2006,26(4):509-512.
[15]张凡,苏德奇.PM2.5对人体健康的影响研究进展[J].疾病预防控制通报,2016,31(4):88-91.Zhang F,Su D Q.Research advance of effect of PM2.5on human health[J].Bulletin of Disease Control&Prevention(China),2016,31(4):88-91.
[16]刘帅,宋国君.PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率“剂量-反应”关系meta分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(1):14-17.Liu S,Song G J.Dose-response relationship between daily PM2.5concentration and mortality rate:a meta-analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Public Health,2017,33(1):14-17.
[17]西安市统计局.西安统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Xi'an statistical yearbook2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015.
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[19]西安市统计局.西安统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Xi'an statistical yearbook2017[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.
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[22]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2015[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2016.National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases,China.Report on cardiovascular diseases in China 2015[M].Beijing:Encyclopedia of China Publishing House,2016.
[23]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2016[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2017.National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases,China.Report on cardiovascular diseases in China 2016[M].Beijing:Encyclopedia of China Publishing House,2017.
[24]国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.2013第五次国家卫生服务调查分析报告[EB/OL].http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/mohwsbwstjxxzx/s8211/201610/9f109ff40e9346fca76dd82cecf419ce.shtml,2016-10-26.
[25]刘传合,洪建国,尚云晓,等.中国16城市儿童哮喘患病率20年对比研究[J].中国实用儿科杂志,2015,30(8):596-600.Liu C H,Hong J G,Shang Y X,et al.Comparison of asthma prevalence in children from 16 cities of China in 20 years[J].Chinese Journal of Practical Pediatrics,2015,30(8):596-600.
[26]新华网.我国哮喘患病率增速明显[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2016-05/05/c_128958941.htm,2016-05-05.
[27]国务院人口普查办公室,国家统计局人口和就业统计司.中国2010年人口普查资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[28]倪宗瓒.卫生统计学[M].(第四版).北京:人民卫生出版社,2000.
[29]Viscusi W K,Magat W A,Huber J.Pricing environmental health risks:survey assessments of risk-risk and risk-dollar tradeoffs for chronic bronchitis[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1991,21(1):32-51.
[30]陈晓兰.大气颗粒物造成的健康损害价值评估[D].厦门:厦门大学,2008.Chen X L.Evaluating the health damage costs of atmospheric particulates[D].Xiamen:Xiamen University,2008.
[31]谢华,朱天怡,刘美岑,等.ACOS与同期哮喘和COPD患者住院情况调查分析[J].现代生物医学进展,2015,15(32):6279-6282.Xie H,Zhu T Y,Liu M C,et al.Investigation and analysis of hospitalized patients of ACOS with asthma and COPD at the same time[J].Progress in Modern Biomedicine,2015,15(32):6279-6282.
[32]国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.2008年第四次国家卫生服务调查分析报告[EB/OL].http://www.moh.gov.cn/mohwsbwstjxxzx/s8211/201009/49165.shtml,2010-09-21.
[2]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.Xie Y B,Chen J,Li W.An assessment of PM2.5related health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive high-level exposure during heavy haze days[J].Environmental Science,2014,35(1):1-8.
[3]孙志豪,崔燕平.PM2.5对人体健康影响研究概述[J].环境科技,2013,26(4):75-78.Sun Z H,Cui Y P.An overview of PM2.5impacts on human health[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2013,26(4):75-78.
[4]Huang W,Cao J J,Tao Y B,et al.Seasonal variation of chemical species associated with short-term mortality effects of PM2.5in Xi'an,a central city in China[J].American Journal of Epidemiology,2012,175(6):556-566.
[5]赵珂,曹军骥,文湘闽.西安市大气PM2.5污染与城区居民死亡率的关系[J].预防医学情报杂志,2011,27(4):257-262.Zhao K,Cao J J,Wen X M.Correlation between PM2.5pollution in air and mortality of residents in urban area,Xi'an[J].Journal of Preventive Medicine Information,2011,27(4):257-262.
[6]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(10):1034-1040.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z R,et al.Exposure-response functions for health effects of ambient particulate matter pollution applicable for China[J].China Environmental Science,2009,29(10):1034-1040.
[7]Zhang D S,Aunan K,Seip H M,et al.The assessment of health damage caused by air pollution and its implication for policy making in Taiyuan,Shanxi,China[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):491-502.
[8]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.Huang D S,Zhang S Q.Health benefit evaluation for PM2.5pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(1):166-174.
[9]吕铃钥,李洪远.京津冀地区PM10和PM2.5污染的健康经济学评价[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),2016,49(1):69-77.LüL Y,Li H Y.Health economic evaluation of PM10and PM2.5pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis,2016,49(1):69-77.
[10]曾先峰,王天琼,李印.基于损害的西安市大气污染经济损失研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(1):105-110.Zeng X F,Wang T Q,Li Y.Economic loss of air pollution in Xi'an city[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(1):105-110.
[11]赵越.大气污染对城市居民的健康效应及经济损失研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2007.Zhao Y.Study on health effects and economic loss on urban citizens caused by air pollution[J].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2007.
[12]戴海夏,宋伟民,高翔,等.上海市A城区大气PM10、PM2.5污染与居民日死亡数的相关分析[J].卫生研究,2004,33(3):293-297.Dai H X,Song W M,Gao X,et al.Study on relationship between ambient PM10,PM2.5pollution and daily mortality in a district in Shanghai[J].Journal of Hygiene Research,2004,33(3):293-297.
[13]董小林.环境经济学[M].(第二版).北京:人民交通出版社,2011.Dong X L.Environmental economics(2nd ed.)[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2011.
[14]韩明霞,过孝民,张衍燊.城市大气污染的人力资本损失研究[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(4):509-512.Han M X,Guo X M,Zhang Y S.The human capital loss of air pollution in cities,China[J].China Environmental Science,2006,26(4):509-512.
[15]张凡,苏德奇.PM2.5对人体健康的影响研究进展[J].疾病预防控制通报,2016,31(4):88-91.Zhang F,Su D Q.Research advance of effect of PM2.5on human health[J].Bulletin of Disease Control&Prevention(China),2016,31(4):88-91.
[16]刘帅,宋国君.PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率“剂量-反应”关系meta分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(1):14-17.Liu S,Song G J.Dose-response relationship between daily PM2.5concentration and mortality rate:a meta-analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Public Health,2017,33(1):14-17.
[17]西安市统计局.西安统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Xi'an statistical yearbook2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015.
[18]西安市统计局.西安统计年鉴2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Xi'an statistical yearbook2016[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.
[19]西安市统计局.西安统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Xi'an statistical yearbook2017[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.
[20]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.2015中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2015.
[21]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.2016中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2016.
[22]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2015[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2016.National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases,China.Report on cardiovascular diseases in China 2015[M].Beijing:Encyclopedia of China Publishing House,2016.
[23]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2016[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2017.National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases,China.Report on cardiovascular diseases in China 2016[M].Beijing:Encyclopedia of China Publishing House,2017.
[24]国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.2013第五次国家卫生服务调查分析报告[EB/OL].http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/mohwsbwstjxxzx/s8211/201610/9f109ff40e9346fca76dd82cecf419ce.shtml,2016-10-26.
[25]刘传合,洪建国,尚云晓,等.中国16城市儿童哮喘患病率20年对比研究[J].中国实用儿科杂志,2015,30(8):596-600.Liu C H,Hong J G,Shang Y X,et al.Comparison of asthma prevalence in children from 16 cities of China in 20 years[J].Chinese Journal of Practical Pediatrics,2015,30(8):596-600.
[26]新华网.我国哮喘患病率增速明显[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2016-05/05/c_128958941.htm,2016-05-05.
[27]国务院人口普查办公室,国家统计局人口和就业统计司.中国2010年人口普查资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[28]倪宗瓒.卫生统计学[M].(第四版).北京:人民卫生出版社,2000.
[29]Viscusi W K,Magat W A,Huber J.Pricing environmental health risks:survey assessments of risk-risk and risk-dollar tradeoffs for chronic bronchitis[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1991,21(1):32-51.
[30]陈晓兰.大气颗粒物造成的健康损害价值评估[D].厦门:厦门大学,2008.Chen X L.Evaluating the health damage costs of atmospheric particulates[D].Xiamen:Xiamen University,2008.
[31]谢华,朱天怡,刘美岑,等.ACOS与同期哮喘和COPD患者住院情况调查分析[J].现代生物医学进展,2015,15(32):6279-6282.Xie H,Zhu T Y,Liu M C,et al.Investigation and analysis of hospitalized patients of ACOS with asthma and COPD at the same time[J].Progress in Modern Biomedicine,2015,15(32):6279-6282.
[32]国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.2008年第四次国家卫生服务调查分析报告[EB/OL].http://www.moh.gov.cn/mohwsbwstjxxzx/s8211/201009/49165.shtml,2010-09-21.