清代家族人口繁衍研究——兼论支脉重构在微观历史人口学中的应用
摘要
基于家谱资料的微观历史人口学研究已经证明,清代人口繁衍处于高出生、高死亡阶段,婴幼儿存活率极低,人均预期寿命仅有30岁左右。这种人口繁衍的体系对中国传统家族理想造成严重冲击。家族观念对中国传统社会影响深远,家族人口繁衍昌盛、香火延续不绝成为民众的普遍理想,然而在高死亡率面前,不仅几世同堂的大家庭理想缺乏实现的人口条件,而且绝嗣现象也普遍存在。依据《松源魏氏》和《海宁查氏》两部家谱所载人口资料的研究结果表明,在经历了从清初到民国初年两百余年的生存竞争后,只有少数的人能够拥有自己的后代,保持香火不断,而其他大多数人都陆续绝嗣,后世为数众多的子孙可能仅是极少数祖先的后代。不同支脉间人口繁衍的机会极不均衡,家族人口繁衍的理想和现实之间存在巨大的落差。"支脉重构"方法的提出,为微观历史人口学研究开拓了新的思路和研究范畴。
引文
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[7]Zhongwei Zhao,“Demographic Conditions andMulti-generation Households in Chinese History.Resultsfrom Genealogical Research and Microsimulation,”Popula-tion Studies,Vol.48,No.3,(Nov.,1994),pp.413-425;Zhong-wei Zhao,“Coresidential Patterns in Historical China:ASimulation Study,”Population and Development Review,Vol.26,No.2,(Jun.,2000),pp.263-293.
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[9]Stevan Harrell,“Introduction:Microdemography andthe Modeling of Population Process in Later ImperialChina,”In Stevan Harrell eds.,Chinese Historical Microde-mography.Berkeley:University of California Press,1995,pp.2-6.
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[14]Zhongwei Zhao,“Demographic Conditions andMulti-generation Households in Chinese History.Resultsfrom Genealogical Research and Microsimulation,”Popula-tion Studies,Vol.48,No.3(Nov.,1994),pp.413-425.
[15]Liu Ts’ui-jung,“Chinese Genealogies as aSource for the Study of Historical Demography,”“中央研究院”:《“中央研究院”成立五十周年纪年论文集》,台北,1978年,第849-870页。
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[17]Stevan Harrell,“The rich get children:Segmenta-tion,stratification and population in three Zhejiang lin-eages,1550-1850,”In Susan Hanley and Arthur Wolf eds.,Family and Population in East Asian History,Stanford:Stanford University Press,1985,pp.81-109.
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[19]Ted A Telford,“Family and State in QingChina:Marriage in the Tongcheng Lineages,1650-1850,”“中央研究院”近代史研究所:《近世家族与政治比较历史论文集》,台北,1994年,第921-942页。
[20]劳伦斯.斯通:《英国的家庭、性与婚姻》,刁筱华译,北京:商务出版社,2011年,第40-41页。
[2]James Lee and Cameron Campbell,Fate and For-tune in Rural China:Social organization and populationbehavior in Liaoning,1774-1873.Cambridge:Cambridge U-niversity Press,1997,pp.196-214.
[3]G.W.Barclay,A.J.Coale,M.A.Stoto and T.J.Trussell,“A Reassessment of the Demography of Traditional RuralChina,”Population Index,Vol.42,No.4,(Oct.,1976),pp.606-635.
[4]James Lee,Wang Feng,Cameron Campbell,“Infantand Child Mortality among the Qing Nobility:Implicationsfor Two Types of Positive Check”,Population Studies,Vol.48,No.3(Nov.,1994),pp.395-411.
[5]李中清、王丰:《人类的四分之一:马尔萨斯的神话和中国的现实(1700-2000)》,陈卫、姚远译,北京:三联书店,2000年,第74页。
[6]李中清、王丰:《人类的四分之一:马尔萨斯的神话和中国的现实(1700-2000)》,第100-101页。
[7]Zhongwei Zhao,“Demographic Conditions andMulti-generation Households in Chinese History.Resultsfrom Genealogical Research and Microsimulation,”Popula-tion Studies,Vol.48,No.3,(Nov.,1994),pp.413-425;Zhong-wei Zhao,“Coresidential Patterns in Historical China:ASimulation Study,”Population and Development Review,Vol.26,No.2,(Jun.,2000),pp.263-293.
[8]Maurice Freedman,Lineage Organization in Southeastern China.London:University of London,AthlonePress,1958,p.28.
[9]Stevan Harrell,“Introduction:Microdemography andthe Modeling of Population Process in Later ImperialChina,”In Stevan Harrell eds.,Chinese Historical Microde-mography.Berkeley:University of California Press,1995,pp.2-6.
[10]陈英毅:《中国族谱的产生和发展》,犹他族谱协会等编:《中国族谱地方志研究》,上海:上海科学技术文献出版社,2003年,第36-37页。
[11]Ted A.Telford,“Covariates of Men's Age atFirst Marriage:The Historical Demography of ChineseLineages,”Population Studies,Vol.46,No.1(Mar.,1992),pp.19-35.
[12]Ted A.Telford,“Survey of social demographicadata in Chinese genealogies,”Late Imperial China.Vol.7,No.2(Dec.,1986),pp.118-148;Ted A.Telford,“Patching theHoles in Chinese Genealogies:Mortality in the LineagePopulation of Tongcheng County,1300-1880,”Late Impe-rial China,Vol.11,No.2(Dec.,1990),pp.116-136;刘翠溶:《明清时期家族人口与社会经济变迁》,第5页。
[13]Zhongwei Zhao,“Chinese Genealogies as aSource for Demographic Research:A Further Assessmentof Their Reliability and Biases,”Population Studies,Vol.55,No.2(Jul.,2001),pp.181-193.
[14]Zhongwei Zhao,“Demographic Conditions andMulti-generation Households in Chinese History.Resultsfrom Genealogical Research and Microsimulation,”Popula-tion Studies,Vol.48,No.3(Nov.,1994),pp.413-425.
[15]Liu Ts’ui-jung,“Chinese Genealogies as aSource for the Study of Historical Demography,”“中央研究院”:《“中央研究院”成立五十周年纪年论文集》,台北,1978年,第849-870页。
[16]Zhongwei Zhao,“Chinese Genealogies as aSource for Demographic Research:A Further Assessmentof Their Reliability and Biases,”Population Studies,Vol.55,No.2(Jul.,2001),pp.181-193.
[17]Stevan Harrell,“The rich get children:Segmenta-tion,stratification and population in three Zhejiang lin-eages,1550-1850,”In Susan Hanley and Arthur Wolf eds.,Family and Population in East Asian History,Stanford:Stanford University Press,1985,pp.81-109.
[18]陈意新、曹树基:《马尔萨斯理论和清代以来的中国人口——评美国学者近年来的相关研究》,《历史研究》,2002年第1期。
[19]Ted A Telford,“Family and State in QingChina:Marriage in the Tongcheng Lineages,1650-1850,”“中央研究院”近代史研究所:《近世家族与政治比较历史论文集》,台北,1994年,第921-942页。
[20]劳伦斯.斯通:《英国的家庭、性与婚姻》,刁筱华译,北京:商务出版社,2011年,第40-41页。