经济发展过程中“人口红利”的反思与再定义
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摘要
经典文献和学术界主流更多地从人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响这一角度来观察和分析"人口红利"。经典的"人口红利"概念不足以体现人口转变对经济增长的积极影响。人口年龄结构变动对经济增长产生的积极影响,与这一过程中人口质量的提升密不可分。因此,"人口红利"应该被定义为:在人口转变开始后,由人口年龄结构变动与人口质量提升共同作用形成的、有利于经济增长的人口条件。文章利用生产函数构造了新的"人口红利"测度指标,在此基础上,分析了中国未来人口变动对经济增长的影响,结论是人口质量提升能够使人口变动长期有利于经济增长。因此,中国未来人口发展的方向是人口质量的提升,而不是依赖生育政策来延续所谓"有利于经济增长的人口年龄结构"。
Classical literature and academic mainstream mostly observe and study the demographic dividend from the view of influences of population age structure on economic growth.The classical concept of demographic dividend is not enough to reflect the positive influences of population transition on economic growth.The change of population age structure generates economic growth dividend,which is inseparable with the improving quality of population in the process.Hence,the demographic dividend should be defined as followed:A sort of population condition which is caused by the combined effects of the change of population age structure and the improvement of population quality after the onset of the demographic transition and beneficial to economic growth.This paper uses production function to construct a new indicator for the demographic dividend.On this basis,it analyzes the influences of population change on economic growth in China in the future.The conclusion is that the improvement of population quality can make population change benefit economic growth in the long run.Therefore,improving population quality is the future development direction of China’s population and keeping the age structure which is beneficial to economic growth by adjusting fertility policies is not the proper policy.
Classical literature and academic mainstream mostly observe and study the demographic dividend from the view of influences of population age structure on economic growth.The classical concept of demographic dividend is not enough to reflect the positive influences of population transition on economic growth.The change of population age structure generates economic growth dividend,which is inseparable with the improving quality of population in the process.Hence,the demographic dividend should be defined as followed:A sort of population condition which is caused by the combined effects of the change of population age structure and the improvement of population quality after the onset of the demographic transition and beneficial to economic growth.This paper uses production function to construct a new indicator for the demographic dividend.On this basis,it analyzes the influences of population change on economic growth in China in the future.The conclusion is that the improvement of population quality can make population change benefit economic growth in the long run.Therefore,improving population quality is the future development direction of China’s population and keeping the age structure which is beneficial to economic growth by adjusting fertility policies is not the proper policy.
引文
[1]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应---论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J].人口研究,2004,28(5):2-10.
[2]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性---兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004,28(2):2-9.
[3]王金营,杨磊.中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证[J].人口学刊,2010,(5):15-24.
[4]Bloom,D.E.,Williamson,J.G.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].The World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3):419-455.
[5]Fang,C.,Wang,D.Demographic Transition:Implications for Growth[C]//Gamaut,Song.The China Boom and Its Discontents.Canberra:Asia Pacific Press,2005:34-52.
[6]王丰,安德鲁·梅森.中国经济转型过程中的人口因素[J].中国人口科学,2006,(3):2-18.
[7]王德文.人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长[J].中国人口科学,2007,(1):44-52.
[8]Mason,A.,Lee,R.Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend[J].Genus,2006,LXII(2):11-35.
[9]蔡昉.未来的人口红利---中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):2-10.
[10]Lee,R.,Mason,A.Fertility,Human Capital,and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition[J].European Journal of Population[J].2010,26(2):159-182.
[11]Mason,A.,Lee,R.,Jiang,J.X.Demographic Dividends,Human Capital,and Saving[J].The Journal of the E-conomics of Ageing,2016,(7):106-122.
[12]钟水映,赵雨,任静儒.“教育红利”对“人口红利”的替代作用研究[J].中国人口科学,2016,(2):26-34.
[13]Cuaresma,J.C.,Lutz,W.,Sanderson,W.Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?[J].Demography,2014,51(1):299-315.
[14]Kelley,A.C.Economic Consequence of Population Change in the Third World[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1988,26(4):1685-1728.
[15]Bloom,D.E.,Freeman,R.B.The Effects of Rapid Population Growth on Labor Supply and Employment in Developing Countries[J].Population and Development Review,1986,12(3):381-414.
[16]Barlow,R.Population Growth and Economic Growth:Some More Correlations[J].Population and Development Review,1994,20(1):153-165.
[17]Brander,J.A.,Dowrick,S.The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth[J].Journal of Population Economics,1994,7(1):1-25.
[18]Kelley,A.C.,Schmidt,R.M.Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations:The Role of the Components of Demographic Change[J].Demography,1995,32(4):543-555.
[19]Williamson,J.G.Demographic Dividends Revisited[J].Asian Development Review,2013,30(2):1-25.
[20]Bloom,D.,Canning,D.,Sevilla,J.The Demographic Dividend:A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change[M].Rand Corporation,2003.
[21]Becker,G.S.,Lewis,H.G.On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(2):S279-S288.
[22]Galor,O.,Weil,D.N.Population,Technology,and Growth:From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(4):806-828.
[23]Galor,O.The Demographic Transition:Causes and Consequences[J].Cliometrica,2012,6(1):1-28.
[24]Reher,D.S.The Demographic Transition Revisited as a Global Process[J].Population Space and Place,2004,10(1):19-41.
[25]Mankiw,N.G.,Romer,D.,Weil,D.N.A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-437.
[26]Romer,P.M.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5,Part 2):S71-S102.
[27]Nelson,R.R.,Phelps,E.S.Investment in Humans,Technological Diffusion,and Economic Growth[J].American Economic Review,1966,56(1/2):69-75.
[28]Kelley,A.C.,Schmidt,R.M.Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling:A Synthesis[J].Journal of Population Economics,2005,18(2):275-300.
[29]Benhabib,J.,Spiegel,M.M.The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Evidence from Aggregate Cross-country Data[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,34(2):143-173.
[30]Lee,J.W.,Lee,H.Human Capital in the Long Run[J].Journal of Development Economics,2016,(122):147-169.
[31]陆明涛,刘潋.人力资本测度与国际比较[J].中国人口科学,2016,(3):55-68.
[32]李海峥,李波,裘越芳,等.中国人力资本的度量:方法、结果及应用[J].中央财经大学学报,2014,(5):69-78.
(1)此处以及下文中,人力资本的定义和计算方法与Penn world table 9.0相同,详见http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/pwt/中的指导手册。
(2)Penn world table 9.0中最新数据只更新到2014年,本文所有2015年的数据均为2014年的数据。
(3)由于《世界人口展望》中无台湾地区的数据,143个国家(或地区)是佩恩表中除去台湾地区后且人力资本数据存在的国家(或地区)。
(4)采用离差标准化方法。
[2]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性---兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004,28(2):2-9.
[3]王金营,杨磊.中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证[J].人口学刊,2010,(5):15-24.
[4]Bloom,D.E.,Williamson,J.G.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].The World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3):419-455.
[5]Fang,C.,Wang,D.Demographic Transition:Implications for Growth[C]//Gamaut,Song.The China Boom and Its Discontents.Canberra:Asia Pacific Press,2005:34-52.
[6]王丰,安德鲁·梅森.中国经济转型过程中的人口因素[J].中国人口科学,2006,(3):2-18.
[7]王德文.人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长[J].中国人口科学,2007,(1):44-52.
[8]Mason,A.,Lee,R.Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend[J].Genus,2006,LXII(2):11-35.
[9]蔡昉.未来的人口红利---中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):2-10.
[10]Lee,R.,Mason,A.Fertility,Human Capital,and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition[J].European Journal of Population[J].2010,26(2):159-182.
[11]Mason,A.,Lee,R.,Jiang,J.X.Demographic Dividends,Human Capital,and Saving[J].The Journal of the E-conomics of Ageing,2016,(7):106-122.
[12]钟水映,赵雨,任静儒.“教育红利”对“人口红利”的替代作用研究[J].中国人口科学,2016,(2):26-34.
[13]Cuaresma,J.C.,Lutz,W.,Sanderson,W.Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?[J].Demography,2014,51(1):299-315.
[14]Kelley,A.C.Economic Consequence of Population Change in the Third World[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1988,26(4):1685-1728.
[15]Bloom,D.E.,Freeman,R.B.The Effects of Rapid Population Growth on Labor Supply and Employment in Developing Countries[J].Population and Development Review,1986,12(3):381-414.
[16]Barlow,R.Population Growth and Economic Growth:Some More Correlations[J].Population and Development Review,1994,20(1):153-165.
[17]Brander,J.A.,Dowrick,S.The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth[J].Journal of Population Economics,1994,7(1):1-25.
[18]Kelley,A.C.,Schmidt,R.M.Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations:The Role of the Components of Demographic Change[J].Demography,1995,32(4):543-555.
[19]Williamson,J.G.Demographic Dividends Revisited[J].Asian Development Review,2013,30(2):1-25.
[20]Bloom,D.,Canning,D.,Sevilla,J.The Demographic Dividend:A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change[M].Rand Corporation,2003.
[21]Becker,G.S.,Lewis,H.G.On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(2):S279-S288.
[22]Galor,O.,Weil,D.N.Population,Technology,and Growth:From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(4):806-828.
[23]Galor,O.The Demographic Transition:Causes and Consequences[J].Cliometrica,2012,6(1):1-28.
[24]Reher,D.S.The Demographic Transition Revisited as a Global Process[J].Population Space and Place,2004,10(1):19-41.
[25]Mankiw,N.G.,Romer,D.,Weil,D.N.A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-437.
[26]Romer,P.M.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5,Part 2):S71-S102.
[27]Nelson,R.R.,Phelps,E.S.Investment in Humans,Technological Diffusion,and Economic Growth[J].American Economic Review,1966,56(1/2):69-75.
[28]Kelley,A.C.,Schmidt,R.M.Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling:A Synthesis[J].Journal of Population Economics,2005,18(2):275-300.
[29]Benhabib,J.,Spiegel,M.M.The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Evidence from Aggregate Cross-country Data[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,34(2):143-173.
[30]Lee,J.W.,Lee,H.Human Capital in the Long Run[J].Journal of Development Economics,2016,(122):147-169.
[31]陆明涛,刘潋.人力资本测度与国际比较[J].中国人口科学,2016,(3):55-68.
[32]李海峥,李波,裘越芳,等.中国人力资本的度量:方法、结果及应用[J].中央财经大学学报,2014,(5):69-78.
(1)此处以及下文中,人力资本的定义和计算方法与Penn world table 9.0相同,详见http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/pwt/中的指导手册。
(2)Penn world table 9.0中最新数据只更新到2014年,本文所有2015年的数据均为2014年的数据。
(3)由于《世界人口展望》中无台湾地区的数据,143个国家(或地区)是佩恩表中除去台湾地区后且人力资本数据存在的国家(或地区)。
(4)采用离差标准化方法。